Beyond Quagmire (ROLLING STONE)

[laststeamtrain]

Beyond Quagmire
A panel of experts convened by Rolling Stone agree that the war in Iraq is lost. The only question now is: How bad will the coming explosion be?

TIM DICKINSON

How bad will it be? Tell us what you think here.

The war in Iraq isn't over yet, but -- surge or no surge -- the United States has already lost. That's the grim consensus of a panel of experts assembled by Rolling Stone to assess the future of Iraq. "Even if we had a million men to go in, it's too late now," says retired four-star Gen. Tony McPeak, who served on the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the Gulf War. "Humpty Dumpty can't be put back together again."

Those on the panel -- including diplomats, counterterror analysts and a former top military commander -- agree that President Bush's attempt to secure Baghdad will only succeed in dragging out the conflict, creating something far beyond any Vietnam-style "quagmire." The surge won't bring an end to the sectarian cleansing that has ravaged Iraq, as the newly empowered Shiite majority seeks to settle scores built up during centuries of oppressive rule by the Sunni minority. It will do nothing to defuse the powder keg that an independence-minded Kurdistan, in Iraq's northern provinces, poses to the governments of Turkey, Syria and Iran, which have long brutalized their own Kurdish separatists. And it will only worsen the global war on terror.

"Our invasion and occupation has created a cauldron that will continue to draw in the players in the Middle East for the foreseeable future," says Michael Scheuer, who led the CIA's hunt for Osama bin Laden. "By taking out Saddam, we have allowed the jihad to move 1,000 kilometers west, where it can project its power, its organizers, its theology into Turkey -- and from Turkey into Europe."

How bad will things get in Iraq -- and what price will the world ultimately pay for the president's decision to prolong the war? To answer those questions, we asked our panel to sketch out three distinct scenarios for Iraq: the best we can hope for, the most likely outcome and the worst that could happen.

The Rolling Stone Panel

Zbigniew Brzezinski
National security adviser to President Carter

Richard Clarke
Counterterrorism czar from 1992 to 2003

Nir Rosen
Author of In the Belly of the Green Bird, about Iraq’s spiral into civil war, speaking from Cairo, where he has been interviewing Iraqi refugees

Gen. Tony McPeak (retired)
Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the Gulf War

Bob Graham
Former chair, Senate Intelligence Committee

Chas Freeman
Ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War; president of the Middle East Policy Council

Paul Pillar
Former lead counterterrorism analyst for the CIA

Michael Scheuer
Former chief of the CIA’s Osama bin Laden unit; author of Imperial Hubris

Juan Cole
Professor of modern Middle East history at the University of Michigan

<more>

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/13710030/leaving_iraq_the_grim_truth/print
*

The panel responds to a set of question/propositions.

[Fridays Child]

1. K/R. Everyone should read this. eom

[Speck Tater]

2. A classic line to close the article...

"America has been conducting an experiment for the past six years, trying to validate the proposition that it really doesn't make any difference who you elect president. Now we know the result of that experiment . If a guy is stupid, it makes a big difference."

[Maccagirl]

3. Bush isn't stupid

He's a soulless, artless, entitled, narcissistic jerk with a messiah/martyr complex.

[corkhead]

5. He's not the sharpest pencil in the neoCONartist drawer.Our only saving grace has been his stupidity

If he could have reasoned it out, he would have already been able to make himself "Permanent Emperor for Life"

A smarter * would be even more dangerous

[krispos42]

36. He's almost got that, too. n/t

[MissWaverly]

6. this war was all about profit

from the very beginning, create a war as a cash cow gift to the war lobbyists and
a feedback loop into the GOP campaign chest and an excuse to give him unlimited power through the war powers act. It was NEVER about winning but establishing a quagmire,
a permanent commitment to drain funds away from social programs from the middle class
who he despises and to fuel a permanent war machine.

[LostInAmerica]

7. A fully privatized state

Don't forget, too, that this was also a neo-con experiment in having a fully privatized state. With the exception of the Oil Ministry and one or two other Ministries related to oil, the whole of Iraqi governmental services was handed over to corporations, all of them foreign to Iraq. Bremer signed an order shortly after the fall of Saddam to privatize virtually everything the government ever did there. This was going to prove that the privatized state would be not only successful, but profitable.

Of course, the whole myth of the privatized state was most likely all about profiting off the war. I'm sure that there isn't a neo-con alive who gives a rat's ass as to whether the experiment succeeds or fails on its merits as long as the US Treasury is being bled for corporate profits.

[MissWaverly]

8. not only corporate profits but recycling tax $$$ to Bush friends

like the faith based donor bonanza and US tax dollars recycled back as kickbacks from overpaid contractors to the Bush/Cheney campaign.

[dansolo]

13. Establishing a quagmire was not their desired goal

I realize that a lot of people want to maintain the illusion that these people are so evil that they want to maintain chaos in order to keep their profits flowing. While that is a nice side effect of the situation from their perspective, it is absolutely not what they wanted. Keep in mind that the situation in Iraq is probably the only thing that will prevent an invasion of Iran, which has been in their sights for a long time. Their timetables have been thrown off because they've been forced to keep troops in Iraq much longer than they expected. The whole notion of a small, agile force that Rumsfeld felt was sufficient for the invasion of Iraq was so that they would have troops available for invading other countries. As long as we are stuck in Iraq with a dimishing number of available troops and equipment, there is no way that they can continue with their long term plans.

[TomInTib]

14. You hit the nail directly on its head.

Iraq was going to be our base of operations.

But when the shooting kept up, the plans went out the window.

[MissWaverly]

19. I agree that they wanted to invade Iran but this is all part of

a scheme to create another Cold War, this time in the Middle East giving Bush unlimited war
powers; we have come a long way from the crimes of 19 hijackers on September 11, 2001. Much
of what we have done has been not to build bridges and win hearts and minds but to inflame
the situation thus insuring a long term commitment. It is no coincidence that the global
war on terror is set to expire months before GWB leaves the White House, they wish to not
leave this unlimited power to anyone not of their inner circle.

[disndat]

25. Nov '06 was a glitch

to their plan of world domination by subjugating Iraq and thereby control of the oil and Middle East against China, Japan,and Russia. In the meanwhile, they are busy shovelling tax dollars into their private bank accounts in the Carribean Islands and empowering the military industrial complex, a.k.a., The Carlyle Group.

[nealmhughes]

27. Indeed, according to the "True Believers", e.g., Woflowitz, et al., this has all been

a huge disappointment to their Grand Scheme of spreading both free market economies and "democratic" institutions throughout the world from the suburbs of Athens to the Sino-Indian border.
Unfortunately, these true believers had to have a strong military in order to get their plan in action. Unfortunately, a lot of riff raff came along for the ride: the Ayn Rand and Cato and Heritage and AEI crowd, who brought out the open pockets of Scaife and the Kochs with them.
Whomever summarized "Neocon? That is shorthand for Israel," is unfortuantely correct. What had been a state in an attempt to get a lasting peace and a New Pragmatic Solution East, has been dashed to bits due to the aftermath of 1967. The militarists are in control of Israeli politics the same as they are here. Luckily, the religious fanatics are kept pretty much at bay by society there, unlike here. Their fetishism on both military and religious and free market values are disgusting when analyzed. To question any tenet of the present strain of "Neoconservatism" is to be: crazy, a coddler of terrorists, a terrorist enabler, an agent of Satan, and wanting to dance as the citizens of Tel Aviv are driven into the Med.
A strong Israel meant a Middle East compeltely in US thralldom, except for Iraq and Iran. Iraq was going to be a cakewalk! They're Arabs! One generation removed from goats' eyes appetizers in a tent! Not even really human, ya know...not like Israelis or Westerners. No sin to take them down as they aren't capable of deep thought, and probably they, like the insane, do not feel pain. A strong US means that puppies wag their tails as WalMarts open in Teheran, golf courses instead of stupid date palm orchards are used for oases, and all is set for Jesus to return after the Third Temple is built.
Oops! Turns out the Arabs are a bit more sophisticated than we reckoned, and Neoconism was just a theory to begin with...and for some odd reason people with a culture thousands of years old wish it to experience the natural evolution of time, rather than a shock into Whispering Pines in the Meadows (Tikrit).
Marx was wrong when he thought that a critical mass of the workers with class consciousness could provoke the revolution. Napoleon was wrong when he thought the Russian conscripts would lay down their rifles in exchange for an end to serfdom, and Ariel Cohen is wroooong when he thinks that we would be greeted as liberators with a war that paid for itself.
It appears that no one at all is happy, no puppies wag tails anywhere as the rotten military industrial complex, 24 Hours of Daily Hate and pasty faced dough boy preachers and Republicans are unable to house injured soldiers without making a profit at it. Bldg. 18 in the Walter Reed Complex is our state of the union manifested: mildewed, full of vermin and rat feces.

[dave123williams]

32. That is CORRECT! DING DING DING!

Their whole theory about how the world works is pollyanish at best. I will bet you dollars to donughts that in neocon circles they're still seeing this as a positive proof-of-concept that you can reduce the footprint of the military and outsource to private hands most of the functions of government.

For all the time they spend crowing about how much they respect life, they sure have a funny way of proving it.

[MissWaverly]

33. what they wanted was a privatized strike team

with no oversight, that's what they have with their army of mercenaries in Iraq, Iraq is
a mess, and it is due to their determination to have no boundaries, and no oversight of
their activities, pre-emptive war based on what????? They have the US Army competing
with their private army, this is unbelievable, I just hope that the Dems can pull us out of this quagmire that the neocons and rightwing extremists have created.

[krispos42]

37. I must disagree a little

Their goal was to make this war palatable, which means NO DRAFT or any noticable change to America's lifestyle.

Part of that was deluding themselves into thinking that the war would pay for itself, there'd be an election, and democracy would flourish in the freedom-starved Arab world.

Now that that didn't work, they are maintaining that it will work in order to avoid the political catastrophe of a draft. And in the meantime, making huge profits.

Their plan now is to keep things together long enough do dump the problem in Clinton or Obama's lap in 2009.

<edit: spelling>

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

23. I agree - this is not a "surge". It's a SPLURGE on behalf of Halliburton et al.

Bush may be the GOP's lab monkey experiment, but the funding for this experiment is going into the pockets of those who don't care how the experiment turns out, one way or the other, as long as they are enriched.

[MissWaverly]

24. think about it, the Cold War was over,

it should have been a time for strengthening diplomatic ties, retooling America, the
things FDR built are finally wearing out, time to replace, repair, and renew but NO,
that's not what they wanted, NO, they want all the money for the war lobby.

[Drops_not_Dope]

12. Bush ISN'T Stupid

he's smart enough to know that to end this conflict he needs a plan for the aftermath.
Great article. Thanks.

[babylonsister]

4. K & R! nt

[RedEarth]

9. Excellent article....... thanks for posting

[enough]

10. k&r

[HappyWeasel]

11. this reminds me- SYSTEM OF A DOWN

Fish that don't drown,
Life in a bubble jungle,
I wouldn't frown,
Not short another chuckle,
Snake in the ground,
But I was in there for you,
Now leaving town,
Life in a bubble jungle.

Seeing you believing,
Us adhering,
We're the power struck.

Believing, then kneeling,
Appeasing,
The power struggle.

We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle,
We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle.

Wearing a crown,
Life in a bubble jungle,
Chasing the clown,
Not short another chuckle,
Snake in the ground,
But i was waiting for you,
Now we have found,
Life in a bublble jungle.

Seeing you believing
Us adhering
We're the power struck.

Believing then keeling,
Appeasing,
The power struggle.

We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle,
We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle,
Left with no arms,
In the power struggle,
Left with no arms,
In the power struggle.

May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,

May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,

May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,
May I remind you,
Your life is a bubble jungle,

Seeing you believing
Us adhering
We're the power struck,
Believing, then kneeling,
Appeasing,
The power struggle,

We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle,
We're left with no arms,
Right in the power struggle,
Left with no arms,
In the power struggle,
Left with no arms,
Right here in the power struggle.

[Tin Man]

15. Thanks for posting. Excellent article. K&R

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. It has gone so terribly wrong for the Neocons

the Neocons 'couldn't have anticipated' that the war in Iraq would go so terribly wrong!

[leftchick]

17. Graham's assesment of an Iran war is chilling

Graham: This administration seems to be getting ready to make -- at a much more significant, escalated level -- the same mistake we made in Iran that we made in Iraq. If Iraq has been a disaster, this would be multiple times Iraq. The extent to which this could be the horror of the twenty-first century is hard to exaggerate.

:(

[blondeatlast]

18. An absolute must-read and must-send to everyone on the e-list.

God have mercy, how on earth do we stop this insanity?

Thanks for the heads up on a crucial piece. K&R.

[Hawaii Hiker]

20. Excellent article

Its like what Barack Obama has been saying about the Iraq situation

"there are bad & worse options"....

The scariest statement to me was when the one panelist said:

"The real nightmare beyond the nightmare is if the large Islamic populations in Western Europe become inflamed. Then it could be a global situation".....

[Maestro]

21. Good article

but the best quote is from what you posted. The idea that with Saddam gone the jihad extremists are now 1,000 kilometers closer able to influence even more easily the West thanks to the neocons and repuke drones! I have said from the beginning that Osama Bin Forgotten had always wanted a US invasion for this and other reasons.

[PerfectSage]

22. k & r

[lutefisk]

26. "Depending on how long the war lasts -- a million casualties?"

"Scheuer: There isn't any upper limit to how many people could get killed. Depending on how long the war lasts -- a million casualties?"

Will Junior finally be held accountable for what he's done? Lies to the world to justify actions that result in a million casualties. Is there enough of our government left to deal with this, or does George W. Bush get to cash in another get out of jail free card from his daddy's friends?

[D23MIURG23]

31. My guess is that he'll probably never do any time.

On the other hand I would be absolutely shocked if he didn't become the most hated president in US history within 7 years of leaving office (if he isn't already there). I don't know if this doltish psychopath is capable of an internal monologue, but if he is, he isn't likely to be a happy camper in the long run.

[krispos42]

38. There are already close to a million casualties

And that's with Iran staying on it's side of the border.

I'm thinking 8 figures if this gets really rolling.

[Maryland Liberal]

28. The Longer the Civil War in IRAQ lasts...

The better it is for the good old USA! Let them kill each other = Both MILITANT sides weakened = better chance for a lasting peace.

[Bhaisahab]

46. ok. that was a stupid thing to say

unless you forgot to plug in the sarcasm alert.


K&R for this article.

[HappyWeasel]

29. gee

This could go nuclear if it pushes up against Israel? I don't think 1000000 covers it. More like 500,000,000 maybe. But I am guessing at this point a mil is a reasonable estimate. I think that we will be stuck there until 2009 or 2013 with 4000 to 10000 lost soldiers and the what will remain will be a Somilia-type situation.

Then again maybe the surge will work and the war will be over by election with only 3700 deaths....but then a newly revigorated neo-con movement may have us in Iran by the end of 2009 or early 2010. They won't have to worry about elections because we would have lost credibility....in that war, I see 25000 US dead, and 2-3 million Persians dead...and depending on how that goes we can see double that amount if that war gets truly botched.

OR if this war does escalate, I see the war spreading into Syria, Jordan, Tukey, Eygpt and Suadia Arabia and claiming about 5 million lives and 40,000 of our own.

Or maybe Israel will get put in a corner and launching nukes at Tehran, Damascus, Amman, Cairo, Baghdad, Riyadh, Mecca, Medina and Ankara and then dragging in the Russians, Chinese, the United States and Pakistan. This would cause about half a billion to two billion dead and leave the world in a global depression for 30 to 80 years and cause everything from the Boshpurus, the Caucuses, to Gibralter to the Indus to be totally anomic.

but yeah, we will probably have to deal with terrorists throughout the reigon, deal with invading turks and hope to god a Sodom-Lite can become a buffer state between the Persians, Arabs and Turks by 2010 or 2012. We would have lost about 10000 troops and about a million and change will be dead throughout the reigon, but mostly in Iraq. We will have no democracy and nothing would have changed but maybe the rape rooms and the bizzare personality cult of Sodom will be gone. The GOP will try to put that on their resume and the intellectual dishonesty about foreign policy will continue in this country the way it did pre-9-11 with a "party of war" and a "party of diplomacy" with equal merits amoungst th public.

[D23MIURG23]

30. Frightening.

I guess the meager silver lining in this situation is the fact that the republic party is being destroyed by this disaster. If we manage to evade the onset of a global catastrophe, perhaps we will all come out a little wiser as well (we can hope right?). I just hope that we can get someone competent in the white house in 2009 so that we can stop exacerbating this problem.

[ProSense]

34. Excellent article, which makes me wonder

why 39 Democrats voted against a binding resolution to set a deadline to withdraw by July 2007?

[krispos42]

35. Holy shit. We're screwn!!!11!11!1!!111

Kidding aside...

Oh, shit indeed.

And we're going into this conflict with a 9 trillian dollar debt owned in large part by foreigners and most of our manufacturing base in China.

Well, I guess the place that I work at can make mortar round housings. That's something, I guess.

[antiimperialist]

39. It was always too late

I disagree with those who say that NOW it's too late.
It's always too late to appease the clamor of people who don't like to be policed by one superpower seeking profit from a war based on lies.
It was too late since the 1st day we stepped on Iraqi soil.

[Joey Liberal]

40. The republicans have sent this country to hell n/t

[Black Adder]

41. What this Administration has achieved...

It's kinda ironic that this Administration has done more to harm America in terms of civilian and battlefield casualties, wasted treasure and damaged international image/reputation then Osama could ever hope for in his wildest dreams..:wtf:

[Canuckistanian]

42. Wow, that's quite a panel of experts

Former security officials, an ambassador, a professor, a general, an investigative reporter....

All of them knowledgeable in Middle East affairs.

Imagine if they all worked for the government.

There never would be this enormous fuck-up called Iraq.

[laststeamtrain]

43. Now, wait a minute there...

What's their position on Roe v Wade? Who'd they vote for in 2000? Ever belong to a union? You know, the important stuff, the 'character' issues.

Expertise? Who needs it? That's for far-left hippies. The adults are here.

[Canuckistanian]

45. Some 'adults' are the worst news for children

And here we have a case of extremely abusive 'adults'.

And these 'children' are not so innocent any more.

[Jacobin]

44. Gee, who coulda foreseen this?

Oh, wait, George H.W. Bush and Dickless Cheney said this would happen back in 1992....not to mention the rest of the planet.

[RiverStone]

47. One wonders how grave the situation must become...

before Shrub takes notice that the battle has already been lost.

He continues to march our American soldiers into this meat grinder of a CIVIL war; I can't fathom how bad it needs to get before there is a change in direction??? For as indicated in your post, experts from both the military and intelligence communities are saying, no --- SHOUTING --- that this madness must end.

How many more millions must we bring to march outside the steps of the White House in protest?

Shrub's actions are way beyond reason or rational explanation. All I can come up with is he is an egomaniac bent on winning his point even if it is un-winnable.