A Real Realist Takeover? (JIM LOBE)

[laststeamtrain]

A Real Realist Takeover?
Jim Lobe | March 12, 2007

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But while the realists are clearly ascendant, they are not yet dominant, particularly with respect to Mideast policy, where they remain hostage to events in Iraq, Iran, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and the occupied territories—and to potential provocateurs—that in many ways are increasingly beyond their control.

Cheney, whose office remains a neoconservative stronghold, retains considerable influence, particularly in coordination with like-minded colleagues in the White House's National Security Council, notably Abrams and others in the Middle East bureau, and deputy national security adviser J.D. Crouch.

And a significant question lingers over Rice's willingness to take risks in pursuing the realist agenda, and the ISG recommendations in particular. Some observers note that she has been very careful to permit other actors—Saudi Arabia and the Europeans in the case of both the Palestinians and Syria, and the Iraqi government in the case of Iran—to take the diplomatic lead, leaving her less vulnerable to attacks by the hawks.

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An even bigger question looms regarding Bush. While he has clearly given Rice more room to maneuver than her predecessor Colin Powell, particularly with respect to North Korea, Bush's own views, especially on the Middle East, remain a subject of unceasing speculation among the capital's cognoscenti, hawks, and realists.

Just last week, for example, he hosted a "literary luncheon" in honor of Andrew Roberts, author of History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900. In a recent interview, Roberts called on Bush to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan "for as long as it takes to achieve complete and final victory over Radical Islam ... not be afraid of threatening to widen the struggle to include foreign countries that aid and abet the insurgents." Guests included some of the country's most hawkish neoconservatives, such as Norman Podhoretz, editor of the Wall Street Journal's editorial page Paul Gigot, and AEI fellow Michael Novak.

"Roberts said that history would judge the president on whether he had prevented the nuclearization of the Middle East," wrote Irwin Stelzer, another prominent neoconservative, in the Weekly Standard.

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