http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60596-2004Jan6.htmlJust for the record, the Congressional Budget Office recently issued a report telling us what everyone already knows: The federal budget is drifting into a future of unprecedented tax increases, huge deficits or both. This is no secret, because the great driving force of change is the impending retirement of 77 million baby boomers and their heavy claims on federal retirement programs. But in Washington, the CBO's irrefutable conclusion won't produce any noticeable reaction, because there's already a clear bipartisan policy concerning the future: Forget about it.
To leaders of both parties, offending today's voters with unpopular solutions to future problems makes no sense. Indeed, Republicans and Democrats will gladly worsen tomorrow's problems to win more of today's votes. President Bush did precisely that in successfully advocating a new Medicare drug benefit. Although Democrats criticized him, their complaint was that the new benefit isn't generous -- aka expensive -- enough.
It's expensive anyway. The spending is usually described as $400 billion over the next decade, but the CBO report says that when the drug benefit is fully phased in, it will cost about 1 percent of gross domestic product annually by 2030. That's about $110 billion in today's dollars, and these costs will simply increase total spending for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (Medicare provides basic health insurance for the elderly; Medicaid covers some nursing home care).
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The longer choices are postponed, the harder they become -- and they've already been delayed so long that they can't be easy. Prospective baby boom retirees may assume that their children will always pay the costs of federal retirement programs. This may be an illusion. As Heller notes, one possible response to a future budget crisis would be for government to "abandon or suddenly scale back on" commitments to retirees. Abrupt benefit cuts would be arbitrary and unfair. But given baby boomers' role in sanctioning today's indifference and denial, they would be richly deserved.