Republican 2008 Presidential Nomination to come down to Rudy Giuliani vs. Fred Thompson

[stevenleser]

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_steven_l_070626_republican_2008_pres.htm


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June 26, 2007

Republican 2008 Presidential Nomination to come down to Rudy Giuliani vs. Fred Thompson

By Steven Leser


You can toss out the rest of the candidates, the race for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination is going to come down to Giuliani vs. Thompson. Giuliani with his pro-Choice, pro-Gay rights and Anti-Gun center-right tack will make an interesting contrast with Pro-Life, Anti-Gay and darling of the NRA Thompson. The reason the other candidates don’t matter is that no one embodies either of the two factions of the Republican Party better than Giuliani and Thompson. The conservative right have no better champion in the announced (or should we say “pre-announced?” Can anyone articulate what Thompson’s status is now since he said several weeks ago that he “will announce around July 4th”. Doesn’t that mean you HAVE announced and you ARE a candidate?) candidates than Thompson. Duncan Hunter might be just as conservative, but personality-wise there is no ‘there’ there. The center-right who are not interested in the social agenda of the far-right and instead care only about a pro-business, anti-regulation and low tax candidate will tend to support Giuliani. That doesn’t leave anything of a base of a support for anyone else.


McCain and Romney have to be frustrated. Thompson’s “Pre-Announcement” means that he isn’t enough of a candidate to really attack or probe policy proposals, but he is enough to start gathering support and show up strongly in the polls. In fact, in many polls Thompson has passed both McCain and Romney before he has even started his official candidacy. Whoever thought of that “Pre-Announcement” strategy is a genius. Giuliani and the Democrats if Thompson gets that far should beware that there are some smart people running that campaign. Regardless, the campaigns of McCain, Romney and the rest are dead men walking. I wonder if they or their campaigns know that yet? By the way, if you doubt that Giuliani doesn’t have a chance with the conservative base, check this thread in Free Republic http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1856776/posts where Jim Robinson, owner and administrator of the site, tells Giuliani “Up Yours”. Free Republic is an excellent place with which to get the pulse of the far Right of the Republican Party.


What Happens with the nomination After It Gets Down to Those Two?


Giuliani vs. Thompson is going to be hard fought, ugly and bloody. Thompson has to be the favorite. I don’t know how any GOP candidate can win the nomination without the conservative base and with the NRA in direct opposition. Giuliani will be attempting to chart new territory in that regard. In Giuliani’s favor will be that a lot of those policies are identified as being Bush policies and there is a general fatigue with anything Bush related. Giuliani could attempt to make the case to Republicans that all but 28% of the country have rejected the far right agenda and that a new kind of Republican leader is needed. As Spongebob Squarepants would say, “Good Luck With That!” Giuliani’s other hope is that the two first nomination states, Iowa and particularly New Hampshire, will give him a good fighting chance to win and hopefully grab some momentum into what would be a lot of more difficult if not completely hostile territory afterwards. In my opinion, there is a 67% chance that Thompson wins the nomination assuming no major missteps by anyone. That is a big assumption. Thompson is absolutely untested on the national scene and Giuliani has had one catastrophe after another in the last few weeks not the least of which is drug charges against his South Carolina campaign chair.


How does Thompson fare against the Democrats


One of the nice things about this for the Democrats is that since Rudy will be facing Thompson from Thompson’s left, the Democratic nominee will get an interesting perspective from the GOP race on how strong Thompson is against someone running with a more liberal social record and perhaps even some tips where his conservatism makes him vulnerable from the left. The GOP debates from July 4th onward will give Democrats a good idea of what they are up against. Either Thompson will be up to the task and will do well, or he won’t and we will find that out very early.


I used to fear Thompson as some sort of Reagan-esque juggernaut. Reagan-esque to me means that he would be a Republican who overcomes the public’s typical aversion to conservative policies by being grandfather-like and cuddly-seeming. Republicans have to overcome that policy-aversion somehow. The current Bush did it by claiming he was a “Compassionate Conservative”. Thompson seems like he could possibly do it the same way Reagan did, but Reagan didn’t face 9+ Republican challengers including one big front runner all of whom were looking to trip him up and then kick him when he was down. Giuliani seems scrappy, like he knows how to fight and fight hard. Conversely, in the race for the 1980 Republican nomination, Reagan faced George H. W. Bush who never really pressed anyone particularly hard in a debate. If Thompson does particularly well in the GOP nomination debates, Democrats will know that they will have a challenge beating him. I am just not sure that is going to happen. Thompson is going to probably come out of the GOP debates and nomination process with some deep scars. His ability to stay in it and maintain a high energy level will be tested. I think he will win the nomination, but right now I doubt that he is going to emerge from it the formidable candidate I once feared.


Whatever happens in the general election, the Republican nomination race is going to be very interesting and fun to watch. As a Democrat, I always enjoy two prominent Republicans taking very public swipes at each other. This race promises to deliver that and plenty of it.

[OHdem10]

1. I tend to agree with your analysis--but there is this little

voice----Do not write Romney off yet.

[earthside]

2. I Doubt It

Ghouliani will start to fade as the primary/caucuses get closer. Religious nut-case, activist Republicans are not going to support him -- look for Huckabee, Gilmore, maybe Brownback to emerge as the alternative to Thompson. And, it won't be abortion that will sink Rudy as much as his support for gun control. Does anyone really think that the NRA is going to let a candidate like Ghouliani get close to the GOP nomination?

Or ... Thompson may just walk away with it.

As for the Dems ... there is only one person that can keep them from winning in 2008: Hillary Clinton.

(Actually, if Bloomberg gets in as an independent candidate, I think it will be close between him and the Democratic nominee. The Republican will place third, in that scenario.)

[TwilightGardener]

3. Too early to write off Romney--especially since he leads or does well in early-state polls.

[fighttheevilempire]

4. That worries me...

because I've noticed a trend recently with thompson. Employees who are deserting the sinking cheney/bush ship are a month or two later appearing as thompson campaign staff. That means should he win, we'll have the whole same architecture, just with a different figurehead at the top. They're planning on it already. There would basically be 0% chance of any real change in that case. Dems need to start thinking and planning for the scenario that thompson becomes the nominee. I think the dems could handle the other candidates because each of the so called top 3 Rs (mitt, mcwar, and the ghoul) is at odds with a significant faction of their base. If the NRA and/or the fundies stay home, the dems walk in. That is assuming that KKKarl doesn't have 'the math' in 08.

[stevenleser]

7. I think you are exactly right, Thompson would mean more of the same

he would mean another 4-8 years of Bush policies only worse. Thompson can string words together to make a coherent sentence. Again, the good news looking to November '08 is that no matter how grandfatherly and cuddly, I think it will be hard to miss the idea that Thompson would mean more of the same of what we got with Bush. Less than 30% of the country are happy with Bush so that has to be a bad thing for Thompson.

[colonel odis]

5. so it'll be one thrice-married fella whose son won't even speak to him, vs.

a guy with a wife younger than the daughter who died of a drug overdose.

lol... family values my ass

[PATRICK]

6. Gui liana will

be McCained, but your piece shows why some care is taken at this point. Those incensed with overarching Bush dynasty tyranny and bungling might indeed constitute a base for Gules. That is not much of a base number wise though and moderate, conscience stricken GOPers cannot see relief from the lib from NY who is a base of one in the state machine as well.

Despite appearances and trends I think he will go up in smoke perhaps before the first ballot is cast IF he is doing damage to the real Bush backed choices. The real ugliness will come in the choice for Veep and whether Fred rhyming with dead is giving them real tempting choices after election day. Old Tippecanoe and the cherry cordials.

People getting the sense how fixed this expensive process really is are invited not to show up and thus let the Rove machine cast their ballot for them. Our democracy is fairly well poisoned by the money itself. Comparing Dem candidates and process to the GOP is a grim and multi-leveled joke.