Tony Blair should resign

[T_i_B]

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1131197,00.html

Why can José Maria Aznar of Spain go out so smoothly when Tony Blair wallows in ever deeper waters? They both have elections to win for their parties and awkward squads to subdue. Yet observe, and wonder over, the difference. Is it just the culture of politics, or is there something deeper in play here?

The many answers include Baghdad, of course; they reach back into the recesses of old Labour and drag dusty enmities and divides out of the cupboard. But the single answer - the one the political classes seldom chatter about - is much simpler than that. We're bored ... Eleven years of Frasier, nine years of Friends, five years of the Sopranos, seven years of Blair ... We don't care what a twinkling bloke he is any longer. We've had it up to here with mission visions and rictoid grins. Now please, can we switch channels?

In one sense, some of this is Blair's own fault. His style, from the earliest days, has been presidential. He has put himself forward as the fount of all power. He has chased the cameras just as relentlessly as they have chased him. An imperial prime-ministership.

Will Blair get through his difficult week? Probably. But how is he to survive the one after that after that? A systemic problem. George Bush has a solution thrust upon him. He won't be around, at best, five years from now. Term limits call time, a pre-set TV remote. Aznar has a more daring solution. He imposed his own term limits. Maybe, now, Tony Blair should do the same.

[Jack Rabbit]

1. Please explain how this works

If Blair resigns and Labour chooses a new leader (probably Gordon Brown), would new elections be required?

How much damage will it do to Blair to lose the education fee vote? If he loses, could that be a precursor to a no-confidence vote?

The Hutton Report probably will not hold Blair responsible for outing Dr. Kelly, but a number of his aides won't be so lucky. How much will this shake up Blair's hold on power? What does the Hutton Report have to say specifically about Blair to nudge him over the edge?

The WMD justification for the Iraq invasion was long ago exposed as phoney. However, even Bush junta officials are now admitting that Saddam "probably" didn't have WMDs for some time before last Spring. Blair is one of the last hold outs. How is this playing in London?

[T_i_B]

2. I'll see if I can answer

If Blair resigns and Labour chooses a new leader (probably Gordon Brown), would new elections be required?

The Labour party would hold elections, but there certainly would not be a general election as a result. The general election will happen whenever the goverment sees fit between now and June 2006. And Blair's landslide majority would be insurmountable for the tories so that's another term of Labour.

How much damage will it do to Blair to lose the education fee vote? If he loses, could that be a precursor to a no-confidence vote?

It would damage Blair hugely if he lost the fees vote. He has indicated that he might have to step down as PM if that happened but I think it's a safe bet that Blair's landslide majority will prop him up. As to a no-confidence vote, again, Blair's landslide majority would easily see off any chance of that.

The Hutton Report probably will not hold Blair responsible for outing Dr. Kelly, but a number of his aides won't be so lucky. How much will this shake up Blair's hold on power? What does the Hutton Report have to say specifically about Blair to nudge him over the edge?

Hoon may have to go. If you ask me he should go as his credibility is virtually zero at present. I cannot say how Hutton may affect Blair though. If Hutton were to puch Blair over the edge I think that it would have to clearly find Blair guilty of lying but I don't think Hutton can do that.

The WMD justification for the Iraq invasion was long ago exposed as phoney. However, even Bush junta officials are now admitting that Saddam "probably" didn't have WMDs for some time before last Spring. Blair is one of the last hold outs. How is this playing in London?

Dunno about London as I haven't been down that way since Christmas but over here in Essex it is damaging his credibility a great deal.

[Jack Rabbit]

3. Thanks, TiB

Your answers are much appreciated.