http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50822-2004Jan26.html?nav=hptoc_eo The Jobless Recovery
Tuesday, January 27, 2004; Page A16
AS THEY AWAIT the results of the New Hampshire primary, Democrats should take a lesson from the nation's central bankers. Out on the campaign trail, the candidates (with the honorable exception of Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut) have been blaming the "jobless recovery" on President Bush, the trade system and the new phenomenon of "offshoring" service jobs to India. In rather less arresting tones, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has been trying to explain why this blame is exaggerated. As Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday, the United States has lost jobs to foreigners before, yet it has always created others. The Fed committee that sets interest rates meets today and tomorrow, and will demonstrate one of the reasons why the new protectionism is misguided. <snip>
Mr. Bush should not be blamed for this, though his irresponsible fiscal policy harms business confidence and therefore job creation. But the bigger question is whether jobless recoveries are a bad thing. They are, after all, the flip side of good news. There is less cyclical unemployment these days, so recessions are milder; fewer jobs are being created now because fewer jobs were destroyed during the downturn. Moreover, a jobless recovery means, by definition, that each worker is producing more. Higher productivity, in turn, is the best promise possible of higher wages and employment in the future. Just look at the past decade: The jobless recovery of 1991-92 ushered in the longest economic expansion of the postwar period, which drove unemployment down to previously unheard-of levels, and fueled improvements in poverty, crime and other social indicators.
It's true that the shift of service jobs to countries such as India, like other trade-related dislocation, adds to the temporary pain of structural unemployment. But, as Mr. Greenspan says, new jobs will be created. <snip>