http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN0242260520071102By James Saft
NEW YORK (Reuters) - There is a lot of uncertainty in financial markets, but there is one bet that almost everyone seems to be making: sell the dollar.
The U.S. dollar fell again on Friday against a basket of six major currencies (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research), hitting levels not seen in that index's 30-year plus history. It has fallen more than 7.0 percent since the summer's financial ruckus started.
It is an unusually strong consensus, which is often an indicator to go the other way, but, well, there is a lot not to like.
The U.S. economy is likely to slow, if not contract, hurt by a deflating housing bubble, an excess of debt and a financial system that is hitting the lending brakes hard.
And while the Federal Reserve seemed to signal that this week's cut in rates might be the last for a while, if anything U.S. interest rates may decline faster and farther than those of most other major currencies, undermining support for the greenback even more.
This may be especially true if you believe, as do a vocal minority of analysts, that the U.S. will slide into recession, forcing the Fed to cut rates aggressively.
Others fear the reverse, that rising prices of energy, and the new phenomenon of inflation in China driving up prices at Wal-Mart, will drive up U.S. inflation, tying the Fed's hands and causing an unattractive mix of low growth and inflation, or stagflation.
In short, a lot of people doing the same thing for a lot of different reasons. Continued...
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSN0242260520071102