By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
The startling change in the US intelligence assessment about Iran's nuclear programme is the result of a much more vigorous system introduced since the debacle over Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran this week concluded that Iran probably did once have a plan to develop a nuclear bomb but halted this in 2003 and had not restarted by mid-2007. There was an important proviso: "We do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."
The assessment is based on a wide range of intelligence sources. These include interceptions of communications, possibly information from defectors, technical information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (the UN body inspecting Iran's declared nuclear facilities) and even an analysis of TV footage from inside Iran's enrichment plant.
That sourcing is not what is different from Iraq.
The difference is that there is much more scepticism these days.
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more:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7128963.stmPDF file of NIE:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/03_12_07_iran_report.pdf