MYTHS: of the The 2004 Democratic contest - Al Hunt

[question everything]

The Howard Dean shriek. To be sure, the media overplayed Howard Dean's bizarre Iowa caucus night speech, the ranting and infamous scream. But that didn't cause his political free fall.

Before appeared on that Des Moines stage, Iowa voters had soundly rejected his candidacy at caucuses that evening. A favorite to win only weeks earlier, he dropped to a distant third, getting only half the voters of John Kerry and badly trailing John Edwards. Even without the caucus-night charade, it is highly doubtful he would have rebounded in New Hampshire; many feel his Iowa decline was attributed to negativity and failure to convince voters he could win the presidency, drawbacks that would have persisted, shriek or not.

John Kerry was merely a repository. Not true. The Massachusetts Democrat became a much more focused and effective campaigner by late last year and in January. His lengthy orations shortened, he engaged in less inside-Senate talk and no longer stumbled over his Iraqi war resolution vote.

{snip)

Iowa and New Hampshire are unrepresentative aberrations. The quadrennial fight to strip the Hawkeye and Granite States of their primary positions in the nominating process has begun, led by Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan and Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania. These two Democrats think their states would be better early tests.

In fact that would result in a tarmac-to-tarmac, TV studio-to-TV studio, fundraiser-to-fundraiser wholesale campaign, with the premium on money and marketing. By contrast, Iowa and New Hampshire produced large turnouts by an intense and involved citizenry, featuring all the advantages of retail politics. The presidential hopefuls seriously discussed serious issues with serious-minded voters from Maquoketa, Iowa, to Milford, New Hampshire -- for hours on end. It beats a 30-second commercial.