David Corn: An Embarrassing Loss for Clinton: Where Have All the Blue-Collar Dems Gone?

[babylonsister]

Hillary Clinton's historic presidential campaign--once the political handicappers' favorite in the Democratic contest--now appears to depend on two things: Ohio and Texas.



On Tuesday, Barack Obama racked up his ninth win in a row, defeating Clinton by an embarrassing 17 points in Wisconsin. And once again, the nature of his win made the night worse for the Clinton crowd. As Obama had done in Virginia and Maryland a week earlier, he outdrew Clinton in voters in most demographic slices. In a state full of working-class voters, Obama demonstrated once more that he can appeal to lunch-bucket Democrats, outpacing Clinton among voters making $50,000 or less a year. Among voters below 30 years of age, Obama walloped Clinton 73 to 20 percent. He had a 2-to-1 edge with independents and Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary. Clinton did have an edge among those 65 and older: 60 to 39 percent. But among voters who said the economy was the top issue, Obama pulled 55 percent--a big gain from the 44 percent he collected among these voters on Super Tuesday. In Wisconsin, he won 54 percent of the vote of Democrats who have not attended college--presumably blue-collar Dems. On Super Tuesday, he collected only 42 percent within this group.

At this point, Clinton's base seems to be composed of one group of loyalists: older, middle-income women. (Among all Democratic women, Obama beat Clinton 50 to 49 percent in the exit polls.) Though women voters propelled Clinton to victories in New Hampshire and Nevada, they have not carried her to success since those two states. At the same time, Obama has expanded his core.

In Wisconsin, Obama's win occurred after another nasty stretch of campaigning. The Clinton campaign, after easing up on the attacks following the South Carolina contest, went into kitchen sink mode: throwing whatever they could at Obama. The Clinton crew accused him of plagiarism (for having used a few sentences of political rhetoric close to that of Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, an Obama supporter), claimed his health care plan was a disaster, slammed him for considering whether to break his promise to stay within the public campaign financing system (which Clinton, too, has pondered rejecting), maintained that his mortgage crisis plan was inadequate and (in the words of one Clinton spokesperson) "to the right of George Bush," and pounded him for turning down her request for a debate a week. None of this worked.

According to the exit polls, Democratic voters who reached a decision on how to vote within the past month broke for Obama 62 to 37 percent. Those who decided over a month ago split 50 to 49 percent for Clinton. The obvious conclusion: Obama has, yes, momentum. Winning eight contests in a row prior to Wisconsin influenced Badger State voters. Two-thirds of Wisconsin Democrats told exit polltakers they believed Obama has the better shot at winning in November.

With her support cratering, what can Clinton do? None of the trendlines are positive for her, as she heads toward the March 4 showdowns in Ohio and Texas. In the Lone Star State, Clinton has a lead in the polls, but it has been narrowing in recent days. In Ohio, she seems to be maintaining a comfortable advantage. But are Democratic voters in these states--including those working-class Democrats Clinton is counting on in Ohio--a different breed than those in Wisconsin and Virginia and immune to Obama's appeal? The next two weeks, he will be working these states hard. And so far this year, every time Obama has had a chance to spend much time and resources in a state, he has won or placed a close second.

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http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7270_an_embarrassing.html