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groovedaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 09:53 AM
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No babies? European birth rates face steep decline
IT WAS A SPECTACULAR LATE-MAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN ITALY,but the streets of Laviano — a gloriously situated hamlet ranged across a few folds in the mountains of the Campania region — were deserted. There were no day-trippers from Naples, no tourists to take in the views up the steep slopes, the olive trees on terraces, the ruins of the 11th-century fortress with wild poppies spotting its grassy flanks like flecks of blood. And there were no locals in sight either. The town has housing enough to support a population of 3,000, but fewer than 1,600 live here, and every year the number drops. Rocco Falivena, Laviano’s 56-year-old mayor, strolled down the middle of the street, outlining for me the town’s demographics and explaining why, although the place is more than a thousand years old, its buildings all look so new. In 1980 an earthquake struck, taking out nearly every structure and killing 300 people, including Falivena’s own parents. Then from tragedy arose the scent of possibility, of a future. Money came from the national government in Rome, and from former residents who had emigrated to the U.S. and elsewhere. The locals found jobs rebuilding their town. But when the construction ended, so did the work, and the exodus of residents continued as before.

When Falivena took office in 2002 for his second stint as mayor, two numbers caught his attention. Four: that was how many babies were born in the town the year before. And five: the number of children enrolled in first grade at the school, never mind that the school served two additional communities as well. “I knew what was my first job, to try to save the school,” Falivena told me. “Because a village that does not have a school is a dead village.” He racked his brain and came up with a desperate idea: pay women to have babies. And not just a token amount, either; in 2003 Falivena let it be known he would pay 10,000 euros (about $15,000) for every woman — local or immigrant, married or single — who would give birth to and rear a child in the village. The “baby bonus,” as he calls it, is structured to root new citizens in the town: a mother gets 1,500 euros when her baby is born, then a 1,500-euro payment on each of the child’s first four birthdays and a final 2,500 euros the day the child enrolls in first grade. Falivena has a publicist’s instincts, and he said he hoped the plan would attract media attention. It did, generating news across Italy and as far away as Australia.

Finally, as we loitered in front of a mustard-colored building up the street from the town’s empty main square, a car came by. Falivena — a small, muscular man in a polo shirt, with gray hair and a deeply creased, tanned face — flagged it down, for the young woman behind the wheel, Salvia Daniela, was one of the very people he was looking for. They exchanged a few words, and we followed Daniela back to her apartment to meet her family. Daniela, who is 31, and her 36-year-old husband, Gerardo Grande, have two children: Pasquale, 10, and Gaia, who is 5 and was one of the first “baby bonus” babies. Daniela and Grande say they are committed to being a traditional family, but it isn’t easy. Grande works for a development company and manages a bar in the evenings so that his wife can devote herself to the home. Their apartment, though cheery (with lots of enlarged photos of the kids), is cramped. “The baby bonus helped us,” Grande told me. He added, gesturing toward Falivena, “We think this man is a great mayor.”

There are some indications that Falivena’s baby bonus is succeeding — the first-grade class has 17 students this year — but that figure may be misleading. As it turns out, many of the new parents who have taken advantage of the bonus are locals who planned to have a child anyway. (Ida Robertiello, another of the baby-bonus mothers who sang Falivena’s praises for me, admitted that she was already pregnant with her son Matteo when Falivena announced his scheme.) The main effect of the bonus money may be on the timing of births. Last year Falivena was out of office, and the temporary replacement canceled the payments. “I know several women in Laviano who are pregnant now,” Daniela told me, and her husband added, with a rakish grin, that couples got busy because they knew Falivena was coming back as mayor, with a promise to restart the payments.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/magazine/29Birth-t.html?th&emc=th
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
1. Read that article last night....

...at least the US isn't having the same problem. Our birthrate and immigration will mean continued population growth here.
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tama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Benign demographic change
you misplace the problem: population growth is the problem, benign demographic change is the best that can be hoped for - much much better than growth and violent collapse ("die-off").

PS: US total fertility rate is 2.1, meaning just slightly below or at reproduction level.
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Igel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. You're right, the poster you're responding to is right.
US fertility is at just about replacement levels.

Nonetheless, population will increase because of immigration.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-01-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Same "problem?"
Edited on Tue Jul-01-08 04:10 PM by depakid
:crazy:

The earth is already well past its carrying capacity- and as petrol prices continue to rise, that will become ever more abundantly clear.
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Blue_Tires Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 12:17 PM
Response to Original message
3. i think the population issue in Laviano is more related to
its economy and job market, rather than birthrate
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Extrapolating Laviano to all of Europe
is the HEIGHT OF BULLSHIT.

Personally, I'm surrounded by a baby BOOM!!! Just met Anton yesterday. He's SOOOO cute, the little carrot top! Just like his mum! The people are where the JOBS are.

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eppur_se_muova Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
4. The problem facing small towns is population shift, not decline.
It's happening in the rural Midwest USA, and all over Europe. Young adults move away to seek opportunities elsewhere, or just want to see more of the world, and end up not coming back. A lot of small towns and villages will simply be left vacant, and this has already been going on for decades, as long-distance travel became cheaper and easier.

Trying to compensate for this by encouraging births is monumentally foolish. It won't stop the outflow, and it adds to the burden of excess population we will have to face sooner or later.
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
7. That's a good thing. Continues population growth is obviously not sustainable. Now,
it has to spread elsewhere.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-30-08 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I would love to spread my personal "population" to Italy
But they don't want me :(
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mrreowwr_kittty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-01-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
9. People should not be paid to have babies, anywhere, on an overpopulated planet.
That is absurd. The mayor could take that money he's paying women to breed and use it in other ways to attract people to move to his village.

And most of the handwringing over "declining European birthrates" is thinly-disguised racism.
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musiclawyer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jul-01-08 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
11. I was in Spain this month and was shocked by the immigration
Spain does not look like Spain anymore. It look like latin America. Why because Spain needs workers as the native population is not producing enough kids to meet economic demand. So Spain is bringing in all kinds from the rest of the Spanish speaking world. (No Africans allowed however. Trust me on this one.)
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