Russia-Georgia conflict raises worries over oil and gas pipelines

[al bupp]

Source: Los Angeles Times

Russia's invasion of neighboring Georgia has raised doubts about the security of oil and gas pipelines that cross through the former Soviet republic and the wisdom of further investment in the transport lines.

The foray also put an emphatic stamp on Russia's growing influence over the region's natural resources and, by proxy, over Europe.

The pipelines, supplying about 1% of the world's daily oil needs, have not been damaged by the fighting, but the prospect of that led pipeline part-owner BP to shut down one of the oil lines as a precaution Tuesday. A second oil export line has been out of commission since last week because of a fire in Turkey.

Read more: http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/itsonlyfair/latimes0445.html

[CatholicEdHead]

1. Do the speculators actually need a reason to raise prices anymore?

I feel we are just in a temporary lull now in price increases.

[Lorentz]

2. They're waiting for a good excuse.

[al bupp]

3. Ha, I'm not sure that they do actually

Personally, I will not be surprised by $200/barrel oil come, say, February of 2009. It'll be even more if the Bush/Cheney warlords try something serious in Iran. And keep your fingers crossed that no hurricanes bear down on the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico this season.

[ryanmuegge]

5. If Obama wins, it'll skyrocket just to punish the American voters for voting against their interests

[Psephos]

7. It's not about speculators, it's about Russia having a chokehold on European natural gas supplies

Also, about establishing control of Caspian petroleum distribution networks. Which means bringing petro-rich but development-poor countries like Tajikistan and Khazakhstan back under the Russian umbrella, and their oil indirectly under Putin's control. And you're worried about Western speculators manipulating the market. lol

The Euros are fscked and they know it. Soft power = no power. Meanwhile, the UN will undoubtedly issue a committee report.

[daleo]

8. This is one reason Europe takes global warming quite seriously

Moving to renewables (e.g. wind power) also means moving away from dependence on Russian fossil fuel.

[Psephos]

9. So true n/t

[madmom]

4. Well of course it does!!!

[Igel]

6. Yep.

Increased leverage over Europe/NATO. Over Georgia. A clear warning to Ukraine. Possible reduction of problems in Ingushetia. More leverage over Central Asia and its resources, and a reduction in non-state control over resources.

Diminution of US prestige and authority, showing again that Kissinger's "if you're an enemy of the US, you might be killed; if you're a friend, you will be killed" quip isn't all that far from the truth. Reduction of any diplomatic leverage over Russia's relations with Syria and Iran, and making good relations with Russia seem more important than good relations with the US. It shows that the US is long on words, but ultimately doesn't back it up: A truth that was undermined--intentionally-by the US's staying in Afghanistan and Iraq for as long as it has.

Payback for Kosovo. Everybody assumes that Iraq produced the justification, because it's anti-*. Kosovo provided the best-case justification for Russia's actions.

Resolves a political problem that has to be not only cleared up, but forgotten, by the 2014 Olympics some 10-20 miles from Abkhazia.

Domestically, it shows that Putin/Medvedev is restoring Russia's inherent superiority and greatness to its proper position among the nations of the world, esp. over the near-foreigners, whether formerly in the Empire or adjacent to it. Russian honor is a zero-sum game: For Russia to perceive that they're respected (without caring if they're actually respected--they need to believe they're respected and considered great) they need to see that others are humiliated. Chauvinism by another name, a chauvinism that was carefully nurtured and watered, and just got a huge dose of fertlizer. Of course, with siloviki/state control of private companies and an ethnic nationalism with religious overtones, there's a temptation to give the system a name that would not be very flattering.

There's a reason that the botnet used for the cyberattack was put in place in early-mid July. That in the last few months the "peace-makers" in Ossetia had no problem with increased "peace-producing" attacks on Georgian villages outside Tskhinvali and with increased problems on the Abkhaz-Kartveli boundary. That when the Cossacks wanted weapons and uniforms, the Russian government had them already made and positioned, as they had positioned the forces and had plans in place for the rest of their "response"--including having troops ready for loading and transport by ship. Not only was the "response" predictable, it was all but scheduled.

[al bupp]

10. Basically, all part of Russia's Secret Evil Plan

It only required a certain level of hubris on the part of Saakashvili in order to lure him into the trap, and a sufficiently bogged-down US military to deter any response in kind (not that any would ever be likely --except in fevered neo-con imaginations, in that part of the world) in order to succeed.