The jobs picture is even worse than it seems

[Mountainman]

Contrarian Chronicles
The jobs picture is even worse than it seems
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The closer you look at the numbers, the more you realize unemployment is higher than the headlines tell you. And despite what the experts say, inflation is out there, and we’re feeling it already.

By Bill Fleckenstein

Given my contention over the last year that our economic "recovery" would not be self-sustaining -- because it would be incapable of generating jobs -- I'd like to spend a minute on the February employment report.

This report, released March 5, is the third consecutive employment report that has disappointed nearly everyone. And it puts an exclamation point behind the idea that we are not creating jobs in this country.

A look under the hood is not pretty
In fact, if you take a peek beneath the surface of the employment report, it's far worse than the headline number. (The supporting data are available here.)

Using the seasonally adjusted total unemployment rate of 5.6% and adding to it "discouraged" workers, the rate grows to 5.9%. Factor in other groups of people who are underutilized in the work force, you can ratchet the number all the way up to 9.6%. And, for the sake of comprehensiveness, if you use the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, that rate would swell to 10.9%. So, those are the numbers, and I'll leave readers to draw their own conclusions.


More:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P73979.asp

[Cursive_Knives512]

1. Wait a second...

So you mean tax cuts for the super-wealthy don't help the average Joe or Jane? *note the sarcasm* Thanks for the link though, I should read that so that I have some facts and figures when someone says they trust * with the economy.

[brokensymmetry]

2. Well, no wonder!

We haven't sent enough jobs offshore! See, jobs are a commodity...and when we export jobs it makes us better off! No, really, it does! And when more and more Americans are out of work, we do even better! Yeah, that's it!

There are those who might dismiss the above as the ravings of a lunatic; yet, precisely such oratorical flatulence is regularly expelled by the pResident's economic "brain trust". I will leave the reader to draw their own conclusions.

[MasonJar]

3. There was a very disturbing fact pointed out be a caller on

NPR today. He stated that there always had to be 4% unemployment; he continued that anytime the unemployment rolls fell below 4% the Fed would raise interest rates so that the unemployment would go back up. For some unreasonable reason that is best for the economy. The expert agreed with this caller, who protested such a scenario. To paraphrase his next response the caller thought that it was a totally unreasonable set of affairs. Some always have to be unemployed so others can prosper and then of course the prosperous demean the man without a job and criticize him for being on the dole. I was so depressed by that exchange. Who needs that kind of prosperity? This country is on the skids.

[megatherium]

4. 4% unemployment is considered full employment

because even in a robust economy there is a certain number of people who get fired, who decide to drop out of their career to go to school, who decide to move to Denver without having a job there yet, etc.

Lower unemployment implies that the cost of labor will go up, causing inflation or something. Corporations don't want labor to be too expensive, so interest rates are raised to "cool off" the economy. One hears the phrase "a soft landing". (Then comes the recession. Kind of like the line from the second Jurassic Park movie: First comes the oohs and ahhs, then comes the screaming and running.)

[TahitiNut]

5. Human sacrifices on the Altar of Mammon.

From December 2000 to August 2003, the number of people employed in the private sector declined by more than 3,434,000! This is the biggest decline in private employment since the end of World War 2!!