The phase of world geopolitical dislocation
Public Official statement Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin N°32
Feb. 15, 2009 (LEAP/E2020) -- Since February 2006, LEAP/E2020 had estimated that the total systemic crisis would proceed according to four great structuring phases, namely the phases of release, acceleration, impact and decantation.
This process described the events until today well. But our team estimates henceforth that the incapacity of world leaders to take the measurement of the crisis, one of the chief features of which is their eagerness for more than the past year to treat the consequences of the crisis instead of attacking its causes radically, will insert the total systemic crisis in a fifth phase starting in the Fourth Quarter of 2009: the phase known as that of world geopolitical dislocation.
According to LEAP/E2020, this new phase of the crisis will be thus worked by two major phenomena organizing the events in two parallel sequences, namely:
A. Two major phenomena:
1. The disappearance of the financial base (Dollars + Debts) on the whole of planet
2. The accelerated fragmentation of the interests of the main actors of the total system and the great world units
B. Two parallel sequences:
1. Fast decomposition of the whole of the current international system
2. The strategic dislocation of large total actors.
We had hoped that the phase of decantation would make it possible for the leaders of the whole world to draw the conclusions from the collapse of the system that has organized the planet since the end of World War II. Alas, at this stage, there is no reason to be optimistic on the matter (1). In the United States as in Europe, China or in Japan, the leaders persist in making as if the total system in question were only victim of a momentary breakdown and that it is enough to add quantity of fuels to it (liquidities) and other ingredients (lowers rate, acquisitions of toxic new assets, revival programs of industries in quasi-bankruptcy,…) to make set out again the machine. However, and it is well the direction of the term of “total systemic crisis” created by LEAP/E2020 as of February 2006, the total system is from now on out of use. It is necessary to rebuild new instead of trying to save what no longer can exist.
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