The Old college try: Election 2004 prediction!!

[SyracuseDemocrat]

The Old College Try

by Larry J. Sabato, June 23, 2003

With less than eighteen months to go before Election Day 2004, what does the Electoral College picture look like?

Wait, you say. How could even the Crystal Ball pretend to have a fix on electoral votes this far out? The answer is simple: Because of the polarization of the Red and the Blue. As we argued in Overtime: The Election 2000 Thriller, hot-button social issues such as abortion, guns, and gay rights have separated the American states into Blue "Tolerant America" and Red "Traditional America". And this polarization gives every sign of persisting. As we showed in our new book, Midterm Madness: The 2002 Elections, the Bush and anti-Bush coalitions continue to drive current American politics.

Is it possible that a strong economic recovery, among other factors, could produce a Bush reelection landslide in 2004? Yes, but such an event would not obliterate the Red and the Blue, merely override those tendencies for one election season. Similarly, a double-dip recession might enable the Democratic nominee to capture several Red states and the Presidency, yet the underlying split would persist.

These scenarios aside, let's assume a middle ground set-up for 2004, a soggy but not disastrous economy (no new recession) plus a mixed outlook on national security (continuing terrorist activities but no new 9/11). Further, let's propose that the Democrats nominate one of their arguably electable candidates in the 2004 field: in alphabetical order, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, Graham, Kerry, or Lieberman.

(snip)

This electoral analysis is but a starting point for 2004, of course. Nonetheless, the current polarization of American politics into the Blue and the Red---while certainly not as vicious as the separation of the Blue from the Gray---is historically astonishing, and somewhat reminiscent of the lingering, century-long estrangement of the North and the South after the Civil War. The Blue states are tolerant/liberal on hot-button social issues such as abortion, gun control, gay rights, and the like, while the Red states are traditional/conservative on these matters. The nation today is divided as much culturally as politically, and these divisions clearly show up on the electoral map.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

Read the whole article here:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college.htm

[tedoll78]

1. Yup.

This is why I want Graham on the ticket, either as VP or as the top of the ticket. We can't pass-up those 27EVs, and Graham is as popular as politicians come in Florida.

[AndyTiedye]

3. We Must Plan to Win Without Florida

It is in the bag. Jeb is governor and will deliver Florida's electoral votes to the BFEE by any means necessary.
Don't they have new Diebold Republican Electing Machinez now just to make sure?

If we count on Florida in 2004, we are being set up for a repeat of the 2000 selection,
but this time with nice tidy electronic "voting" so no need for messy Supreme Court intervention.

We have to win everywhere we won in 2000, and one more state. Any red state will do. But we have to win those states by huge margins so they can't steal the election.

[OneBlueSky]

2. the only two candidates this guy has LOSING to Bush . . .

are Dean and Kerry . . . hmmm . . .

[WCGreen]

4. Clark and Mary Landreau...

That is the ticket that is sure to win...

With Clark we get Florda, Virginia, Arkansas and probably Missouri.

With Mary L, we put LA in play, Georgia in play and cement our vitory in Minnesota, Wisconson.....

If Springer runs in Ohio, that state is then in play...

AZ is now in play...

Nevada can be a blue state, all they have to do is focus on the nuclear dump......

[Terran]

5. SyracuseDemocrat

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