Scientist: Consensus withstands climate email flap

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Tue Dec-01-09 01:44 PM
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Scientist: Consensus withstands climate email flap

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Now, on to Professor North, a physicist who specializes in investigating the causes of climate change through the use of various types of computer models, among other techniques. He is especially well-qualified to comment on this controversy because of his role in investigating the work of one of the key players in the email flap, Michael Mann of Penn State University.

In 2006, North chaired a National Academy of Sciences panel on "Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 Years," which examined Mann's controversial study, known as the "Hockey Stick," which traced Earth's recent climate history. While the panel found some flaws with the study, it largely affirmed Mann's conclusions that late 20th century surface temperatures were higher than they had been in at least four centuries, and possibly far longer than that.

(In the interview, North discusses the work of Stephen McIntyre, who runs the blog ClimateAudit. McIntyre has been writing extensively about the leaked emails. North also refers to a specific leaked email from Phil Jones, who is the director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, in which Jones referred to a "trick" used in a study).

Andrew Freedman: What are your thoughts on the significance of this scandal, both in terms of what it may mean scientifically and for public perceptions of climate science?

Gerald North: Scientifically, it means little. All scientists know that this kind of language and kidding goes on verbally all the time. Some of us forget that email has the potential to become public at any time. The public perception is another matter. There may be some people who do not know any scientist personally and think they are lily pure, dedicated (do-gooder) nerds. These private comments might lead to less confidence in science. It is a shame, since our country is so scientifically illiterate and is easily swayed by perceptions that have little to do with scientific method and culture. They have very little influence on my opinion.

AF: Do these hacked emails make you question the "consensus" on climate change at all, or to a greater extent perhaps than you did before?

GN: I accept the IPCC procedure of assessment. It is not perfect, but it is probably the best we can do in learning the state of the science at an instant in time. It employs people who work actively in the field. Sometimes they are assessing their own work - egos clash. They are drawn together in workshops; then they separate to write the chapters of the report. There is a huge amount of anonymous refereeing of the reports. Monitors check that every complaint is at least discussed (in writing but not necessarily in the final report). There is a tendency to make the report reflect the mainstream view and de-emphasize some things that contradict it.
This is the way science works. People follow an established paradigm. They stay with it until it becomes uninteresting or stagnant. A paradigm can fall by an internal inconsistency that cannot be reconciled, or it may face an insurmountable contradiction with observed data. This latter does not happen overnight. Usually, with long standing paradigms, the data or its interpretation turn out to be wrong.

ʻClimategateʼ is not even close to causing active researchers to abandon the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. This hypothesis (Anthropogenic GW) fits in the climate science paradigm that 1) Data can be collected and assembled in ways that are sensible. 2) These data can be used to test and or recalibrate climate simulation models. 3) These same models can be used to predict future and past climates. It is understood that this is a complicated goal to reach with any precision. The models are not yet perfect, but there is no reason to think the approach is wrong.

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http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/gerald_north_interview.html