Forecast 2010 (James Howard Kunstler)

[Tace]

James Howard Kunstler -- World News Trust

Dec. 28, 2009 -- The Center does Not Hold... But Neither Does the Floor

Introduction

There are always disagreements in a society, differences of opinion, and contested ideas, but I don't remember any period in my own longish life, even the Vietnam uproar, when the collective sense of purpose, intent, and self-confidence was so muddled in this country, so detached from reality. Obviously, in saying this I'm assuming that I have some reliable notion of what's real. I admit the possibility that I'm as mistaken as anyone else. But for the purpose of this exercise I'll ask you to regard me as a reliable narrator. Forecasting is a nasty job, usually thankless, often disappointing -- but somebody's got to do it. There are so many variables in motion, and so much of that motion is driven by randomness, and the best one can do in forecasting amounts to offering up some guesses for whatever they are worth.

I begin by restating my central theme of recent months: that we're doing a poor job of constructing a coherent consensus about what is happening to us and what we are going to do about it.

There is a great clamor for "solutions" out there. I've noticed that what's being clamored for is a set of rescue remedies -- miracles even -- that will allow us to keep living exactly the way we're accustomed to in the USA, with all the trappings of comfort and convenience now taken as entitlements. I don't believe that this will be remotely possible, so I avoid the term "solutions" entirely and suggest that we speak instead of "intelligent responses" to our changing circumstances. This implies that our well-being depends on our own behavior and the choices that we make, not on the lucky arrival of just-in-time miracles. It is an active stance, not a passive one. What will we do?

The great muddlement out there, this inability to form a coherent consensus about what's happening, is especially frightening when, as is the case today, even the intelligent elites appear clueless or patently dishonest, in any case unreliable, in their relations with reality. President Obama, for instance -- a charming, articulate man, with a winning smile, pectorals like Kansas City strip steaks, and a mandate for "change" -- who speaks incessantly and implausibly of "the recovery" when all the economic vital signs tell a different story except for some obviously manipulated stock market indexes. You hear this enough times and you can't help but regard it as lying, and even if it is lying ostensibly for the good of the nation, it is still lying about what is actually going on and does much harm to the project of building a coherent consensus. I submit that we would benefit more if we acknowledged what is really happening to us because only that will allow us to respond intelligently. What prior state does Mr. Obama suppose we're recovering to? A Potemkin housing boom and an endless credit card spending orgy? The lying spreads downward from the White House and broadly across the fruited plain and the corporate office landscape and through the campuses and the editorial floors and the suites of absolutely everyone in charge of everything until all leadership in every field of endeavor has been given permission to speak untruth and to reinforce each others lies and illusions.

How dysfunctional is our nation? These days, we lie to ourselves perhaps as badly the Soviets did, and in a worse way, because where information is concerned we really are a freer people than they were, so our failure is far less excusable, far more disgraceful. That you are reading this blog is proof that we still enjoy free speech in this country, whatever state of captivity or foolishness the so-called "mainstream media" may be in. By submitting to lies and illusions, therefore, we are discrediting the idea that freedom of speech and action has any value.

Where We Are Now

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http://worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&id=7441:forecast-2010-james-howard-kunstler

[jwirr]

1. I have been waiting for someone to post that prediction. If people on

DU really want to discuss something tonight we need to pull up the other two sights that are listed in the comments section and give it our full consideration. I for one think he made a lot of sense.

[patrice]

2. Perhaps I'm jumping the gun here, but I think we should start forming co-operatives of various types

It would help if there were somekind of Co-operative consultants. Experienced, subject matter experts, who could facilitate the process of people coming together for agreed upon goals, to form co-operatives to achieve those goals.

[TheWraith]

3. So the guy who thought Y2K was going to end civilization matters... why?

Oh right, he's an "expert." At least when it comes to making BS predictions to get attention, and then ignoring them later when he's proven dead wrong.

[rpannier]

4. Regardless of his idiotic prediction in 2000 he puts out two important points

1. How are we defining recovery?
2. We are a nation that is lied to all the time by the press ane elected leaders. We really have little idea of how good or how bad the economy is because there is no one willing to take a hit politically for being honest.