E.J. Dionne:How Democrats can avoid a midterm rout in 2010

[cal04]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/03/AR2010010301813.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

As they enter this difficult election year, Democrats seem ready to engage yet again in a debate they never seem to tire of: whether winning demands "moving to the center" or "mobilizing the base." If they get stuck on this, they're in for a very bad time.

The simple truth is that in midterm elections, no party can win without its base because turnout is lower than in presidential elections. Those who do vote are more committed to their parties and their ideological priorities.

Behind the 1994 Republican midterm sweep was a dispirited Democratic base unhappy about the failure of heath-care reform, grumpy about the economy and badly split over the North American Free Trade Agreement, for which President Bill Clinton pushed so hard. While Democrats stayed home, Republicans mobbed the polls and won races all the way down the ballot. It's the midterm rule: No base, no victory.

But this doesn't mean independents or swing voters can be ignored, and there are ways to turn out the base that don't turn off the middle. For the party that's out, opposition to the party in power is often enough. Democrats swept the 2006 midterms because their base was wildly enthusiastic about rebuking George W. Bush and the political center had turned on the president, too. Republicans would like to repeat that in reverse this year.

(snip)
Democrats will almost certainly lose House and Senate seats. But they can escape a rout if they avoid going around in circles by constantly wondering if they should tack left or right. Steadiness in governing, a bit of tactical shrewdness and a little help from the Republicans may be enough to save them from the abyss.

[DJ13]

1. I love how the pundit class thinks the middle wouldnt like liberal policies

They forget how many pundits and the MSM tried labeling Obama as a socialist for months (even in the primaries when they were promoting Hillary) leading up to the GE.

The public heard that repeated non stop and STILL voted for him in a near landslide over McCain.

The public in most regions of the country want a move away from middle of the road, they see that this country is deteriorating from the policies of the past 30 years and understand we need to swing the pendulum in the opposite direction.

The pundit class is still thinking the center is still in between the old conservative vs liberal labels of the 90's, but the voters have moved to the left.......and left the pundits behind in the process.

[pscot]

2. I see that assertion a lot around here

but I never see the citations to back it up. Frankly, I don't think the broader public knows its ass from a hole in the ground. Most people seem to believe the last thing they heard, and that changes from one day to the next. If we go into this election thinking the public leans left, we're likely to get our heads handed to us.

[DJ13]

3. The point is to create left leaning policies, then act on them

If our party believes that liberal policies benefit more people at one time than safe "stay the course" policies then we really have no excuse for not following through on those beliefs.

And taking that a step further, if were correct about that then when those policies are enacted and the voters see improvements in their own lives their votes will follow.

Playing it safe wont keep the base in play, and since it wont improve the lives of the voters much, if any, it wont even keep the middle/independents happy enough to come out in good numbers.

[JDPriestly]

4. The pundit class are paid by think tanks that are funded by wealthy, right-wing

extremists. Listen to the pundits and you will go wrong every time. They are paid to be fools. The money is good. Therefore they are not only fools, they are happy, arrogant fools. After all, if you have lots of money, you are doing something right, aren't you?

Wealth and power, doesn't having them prove that you also have merit?

[DJ13]

5. So true

Goebbels would have been proud to have the pundits working for him.

[notesdev]

9. The wealthy don't care for ideology

They will use the left wing as their pawn just as easily as they will use the right wing.

No matter who holds office, the privileged elite hold the leash.

[yurbud]

11. the middle of the road has been pulled so far to the right that we are driving off the shoulder

and on people's lawns.

[Demeter]

6. When Dionne Is Grasping At Straws, The Battle Is Lost

Obama and Rahm are hell-bent on losing. Who are we to tell them nay?

[snot]

7. how clueless can one be.

[leveymg]

8. Dionne suggests the DLC can competently manage the deckchairs on the Titanic

That's all he seems to be saying here. Is this the very best the DC punditry class can come up with?

[elocs]

10. No party can win without its base and although the left is not the complete base,

it is a good chunk of it. The left gets lots of promises when its votes are coveted, but gets lectures about bipartisanship once the election is won. That's the way it is.

[yurbud]

12. and that's clear evidence of profound corruption of the process and individual pols.

[Ruby the Liberal]

13. Thats about it right there...