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Weekend Economists Happy Birthday Severus January 8-10, 2010

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:02 PM
Original message
Weekend Economists Happy Birthday Severus January 8-10, 2010
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 07:17 PM by Demeter
Well, another year, another natal anniversary for the Potions Master and sometime Headmaster of Hogwarts, who by virtue on having left neither corpus delicti nor talking portrait, lives on, regardless of his author.

If ever there was a character in need of outside intervention from the Anti-Defamation League, it is Severus Snape. A classic anti-hero, he was shoe-horned into the villain category by his soi-disant author, where he tried vainly to escape. With the assistance of legions of his fangirls, Severus lives on, proving that one man who can and does repent is worth more than any number of cardboard teenage heroes.

Well, it's been a terrible week on the economic front. Let's see if we can wring any joy, truth, or knowledge from the bloggers and press. Post them if you've got them!

(Sorry for the delay--the grand puppy just left, finally. His mommy was working late).
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. FDIC Issues Warning to Banks
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 07:16 PM by Demeter
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), in coordination with the other member agencies of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), released an advisory today reminding institutions of supervisory expectations for sound practices to manage interest rate risk (IRR). This advisory, adopted by each of the financial regulators, reiterates the importance of effective corporate governance, policies and procedures, risk measuring and monitoring systems, stress testing, and internal controls related to the IRR exposures of depository institutions. It also clarifies elements of existing guidance and describes some IRR management techniques used by effective risk managers.

The financial regulators recognize that some IRR is inherent in the business of banking. At the same time, institutions are expected to have sound risk-management practices to measure, monitor, and control IRR exposures. The financial regulators expect each depository institution to manage its IRR exposures using processes and systems commensurate with its complexity, business model, risk profile, and scope of operations.

The financial regulators remind depository institutions that an effective IRR management system does not involve only the identification and measurement of IRR, but also addresses appropriate actions to control this risk. If an institution determines that its core earnings and capital are insufficient to support its level of IRR, it should take steps to mitigate its exposure, increase its capital, or both.

The member agencies of the FFIEC include the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the FFIEC State Liaison Committee. The FDIC currently chairs the FFIEC.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. FDIC's check bounced n/t
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Joke, or For Real?
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
17. If my check book was as strong as Bair's
I'd be keeping it in the desk also.

The last #'s FDIC is willing to post ....open the PDF at following link
http://www.fdic.gov/about/strategic/corporate/cfo_report_4qtr_08/balance.html

Scroll to page 12,
FUND BALANCE $(8,243) million........That's $8,243,000,000 printed in bright red ink as of the end of quarter #3 of 2009.

:scared:

YMMNV
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 07:30 AM
Response to Reply #17
66. What is the name of the PDF?

I click on the link, and it shows the "DIF Balance Sheet - Fourth Quarter 2008" and it's only 1 page. Not sure what I am looking for. I don't see anything in red.


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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:06 PM
Response to Reply #1
24. FDIC eyes linking levies to bank pay
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b733a94-fb26-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html


...The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Wednesday that its board, made up of top banking regulators, would meet next Tuesday to consider proposed rules on “employee compensation”. The FDIC did not specify what it would discuss and declined to comment further.

However, one of the issues under consideration is whether regulators should seek information about lenders’ compensation policies, how they affect banks’ risk profiles and whether certain pay structures should be taken into account when assessing FDIC insurance fees, according to people briefed on the discussions.

Any proposals are likely to be targeted to specific structures that are deemed to increase or reduce risk.

For example, “clawback” provisions that allow a bank to recoup bonuses if they were based on trades or deals that proved unprofitable could reduce a lender’s assessment, under one of the proposals being discussed. In some cases, however, a pay structure could lead to higher fees.

Last year, US banks paid more than $17bn into the FDIC fund, which insures deposits up to $250,000.

The move is the latest attempt by regulators to weigh in on banks’ pay policies, which have been blamed for encouraging inappropriate risk-taking and helping to fuel the financial crisis. Bankers’ pay has been a controversial issue because the US government injected billions of dollars of taxpayers’ money to bail out some of the country’s largest lenders.

Both domestic regulators, such as the Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and international bodies have issued guidelines aimed at reining in excessive pay and linking compensation to long-term performance. The SEC passed rules last month forcing companies to provide much more information on pay.

The FDIC’s initiative, however, is significant because it could provide banks with a strong incentive to bring their pay structures in line with the regulators’ wishes and hefty penalties if they do not. It also has the potential to affect a larger number of banks as most of the country’s lenders have to pay the FDIC levy.

Bank executives have long complained about the FDIC levy and the way it is calculated but during the crisis their protests grew louder as the regulator increased the fee to pay for the rising number of bank ­bankruptcies.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #1
32. Sarkozy proposes ad tax on Google--THE POWER TO TAX IS THE POWER TO DESTROY
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1df484d4-fbc7-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

The French government is considering levying a tax on the advertising revenues of Google and other internet portals, in the latest sign of a European backlash against the activities of the US internet search group.

President Nicolas Sarkozy instructed his finance ministry to examine the merits of a tax in response to complaints from the French media that Google and other sites are generating advertising income using their news and other content. He also called for an inquiry by French competition authorities into a possible “abuse of dominant position” in the advertising business of big internet sites.

Mr Sarkozy commented after the publication of an independent report for the French culture ministry that proposed a tax on Google, Yahoo, Facebook and other sites, to help fund initiatives for writers, musicians and publishers to make money from the web.

The report recommended issuing music cards to young people with €25 ($36) in credit provided by the government as a way of encouraging legal downloading of cultural works.

Google said that it opposed any such tax. “We don’t think introducing an additional tax on internet advertising is the right way forward as it could slow down innovation,” said Olivier Esper, senior policy manager of Google France.

Amid growing global scrutiny, the French government, in particular, has gone after Google on a number of fronts.

Mr Sarkozy said last year that France would earmark €750m from a national investment scheme for the digitisation of French culture, including books, in what could turn out to be state-funded rival book scanning project to Google’s book programme.

Last month a Paris court ruled that Google had violated the copyright of authors and publishers by scanning French books held in US libraries without consent. The court ordered the group to stop scanning titles published by La Matinière, the company that brought the case, without prior authorisation, and instructed it to pay €300,000 in damages and interest.

Google said it would appeal, but similar concerns were being raised in other countries. A Chinese court heard a similar case brought by a Chinese author last month.

And in August the National Library of France triggered a furore among the literary establishment – and a government review – when it revealed that it was opening negotiations with Google about a contract to digitise part of its collection, rather than using an under-resourced French public sector alternative.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #32
68. The power to tax is also the power to CREATE.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
40. FEVER
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. 7 PM. NO Failed Banks Yet?
Surely there must be one bank left in Georgia, going under?

There is the following press release, however:

"The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has closed on a sale of an equity interest in a limited liability company (LLC) created to hold certain assets out of 22 failed bank receiverships. The winning bidder of the Multibank Structured Transaction was Colony Capital Acquisitions, LLC, Los Angeles, CA.

The sale was conducted on a competitive basis with bids received on December 17, 2009. A total of 21 groups submitted bids to purchase a 40 percent ownership interest in the newly formed LLC. The participating FDIC receiverships will hold the remaining 60 percent equity interest in the LLC.

The FDIC as Receiver for the failed banks conveyed to the LLC a portfolio of approximately 1200 distressed commercial real estate loans, of which seventy percent were delinquent. Collectively, the loans have an unpaid principal balance of $1.02 billion. Seventy-five percent of the collateral of the portfolio is located in Georgia, California, Nevada and Florida. The participating FDIC receiverships provided financing to the LLC by issuing approximately $233 million of corporate guaranteed notes. Colony Capital paid a total of approximately $90.5 million (net of working capital) in cash for its 40 percent equity stake in the LLC, which equals approximately 44 percent of the unpaid principal balance of the assets. As the LLC's managing equity owner, Colony Capital will provide for the management, servicing and ultimate disposition of the LLC's assets.

The bid received from Colony Capital Acquisition, LLC, was determined to be the offer that resulted in the greatest return to the participating receiverships. All of the loans were from banks that have failed during the past 18 months. The sale closed on January 7, 2010."
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. I think the FDIC got all of 'em except mine.
On second thought - maybe not all. I have seen vultures circling over NationsBank Tower. So hope springs eternal.

Happy weekend all!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Happy Weekend, Ozy! IS DU Really Slow for You Right Now?
I'm having a hard time posting today.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. I was having a hard time for a while.
Couldn't post anything. Seems kinda cleared up now.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Yes.
And sorry for the delay - dinner time. DU has been slow to load at times. I've also had a few dropped connections.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:07 PM
Response to Reply #6
25. I thought everything was grounded due to icing?
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/georgia/atlanta/

The # of banks on this list with troubled asset ratio's in the 100% range (or higher) puts the pucker factor into the "hard to sit down" end of the chart.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. Quite a few of these banks no longer exist.
Still this is an excellent source to discover how bad one bank must be before its furniture ends up on the sidewalk.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #29
37. If you hit on the links, the one's that have been closed
EBank, RockBridge, Omni, etc. have a bold disclaimer near the top stating such....There is also a statement if the institution received TARP funds

I've looked at the loss figures that FDIC has used in their press releases vs. those claimed in the filings. The toxic component claimed in the banks filing often falls 50% short of the actual losses. BUT no need for "mark to market" accounting needed at the present time :insert big ooze "S":
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
26. 9 PM and no bank failures
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 09:09 PM by Demeter
Now I'm getting worried. Has the FDIC given up? or were they distracted by the big selling off of assets posted above?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #26
35. Snowed in?
:shrug:
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #35
38. Disruptive passenger in ""D" row.
Caught rubbing two swizzle sticks together, trying to get a flame. :shrug: :shrug:
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #26
41. Bank Failure #1: Horizon Bank, Bellingham, Washington
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 10:08 PM by girl gone mad
Late start.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/bank-failure-1-horizon-bank-bellingham.html

From the FDIC: Washington Federal Savings and Loan Association, Seattle, Washington, Assumes All the Deposits of Horizon Bank, Bellingham, Washington

Horizon Bank, Bellingham, Washington, was closed today by the Washington State Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Horizon Bank had approximately $1.3 billion in total assets and $1.1 billion in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $539.1 million. ... Horizon Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Washington. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Venture Bank, Lacey, on September 11, 2009.


Edited to provide permalink + summary.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #41
45. Thanks!
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 10:16 PM by Demeter
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
4. The Banksters Sub Thread
If it produces nothing, it goes here.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. California bank is put to test on commercial real estate--As Is Garret Group!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-bank-tested-by-commercial-real-estate-2010-01-07?siteid=YAHOOB

CVB Financial is 'last man standing' in its market, but loans spark concern

Southern California's Inland Empire, a vast suburban sprawl to the east of Los Angeles, has been among the hardest hit by the real estate crisis...the largest bank based in the region, CVB Financial Corp., has survived even as rivals perished... an office building at 800 N. Haven Avenue in Ontario was part of collateral for a $16.575 million revolving line of credit that Citizens Business Bank, the banking unit of CVB, extended in March 2008, according to the deed of trust. In August of that year, the property partly secured a $16 million promissory note issued by the bank, another deed of trust shows...

Citizens Business Bank extended the credit to Paul Garrett, a cattle rancher and chairman of a real estate development firm called The Garrett Group LLC. The bank has eight loans totaling $84 million to Garrett, by far its largest lending relationship. One of the loans was restructured in March 2009, but Myers said in December that the loans are "performing as agreed."

However, two other lenders -- Kansas City, Mo.-based Bank Midwest and life insurer Jefferson-Pilot, part of Lincoln Financial Group -- foreclosed on loans to Garrett totaling more than $40 million in late 2009.

If Citizens Business Bank foreclosed on some of its loans to Garrett, it could be left holding property that's fallen in value during the real estate bust. If the collateral isn't enough to cover the money left on the loans, CVB may end up taking a loss.

Myers said in December that CVB had no "specific" reserves against these loans, but the bank has allocated a portion of its "general pool of reserves" to cover any problems. Still, the CEO stressed again that the assets are "fully performing."

...At the end of September, CVB's Garrett loans equaled about 14% of the bank's tangible common equity, a closely watched measure of financial institutions' net worth...

On the positive side, CVB was considered strong enough by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. last year to buy a failed bank, Natzic noted. CVB also paid $130 million to exit the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

...In 2001, when CVB listed its stock on the Nasdaq, it had more than $1 billion in loans, mostly in commercial, industrial, residential, dairy and livestock sectors. By the end of the third quarter of 2009, loans had grown to more than $3.5 billion, more than half of them in commercial real estate, according to data from the bank.

Almost 22% of CVB's loans were made with borrowers in the Inland Empire as of the end of September, and 33% were in Los Angeles County and 17% in California's Central Valley.

Despite that focus, CVB has continued to book profits while rivals struggled as the real estate bust hammered the Inland Empire. Of the five largest banks headquartered in the region, four have disappeared...Two of those -- Vineyard Bank and Temecula Valley Bank -- failed last year after suffering big losses from delinquent construction loans to home builders and commercial developers.

"We are the last man standing," Myers said in his Dec. 2 investor presentation, adding that CVB avoided trouble in construction loans.

In the third quarter, CVB had less than $500,000 in net charge-offs, representing about 0.05% of average loans. That ranked CVB third out of 137 publicly-traded U.S. banks in the period, according to data provided by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

CVB pulled off this feat in a region that was the fourth-worst in the nation in residential real estate during the third quarter, based on the median sales price of existing homes, according the National Association of Realtors.

...CVB has been the target of short sellers, who bet the shares will drop. CVB's short-interest ratio, which measures the number of shares that have been sold short as a percentage of average daily trading, climbed to a six-month high of 19.8 in December, according to FactSet data.

....
The Treasury Department invested more than $100 million in CVB through TARP.

CVB's loans to Garrett were reviewed several times last year, by the FDIC, auditor KPMG and investment banks Sandler O'Neill and KBW, which underwrote last year's stock offering by the bank. And before CVB paid $130 million to exit TARP, the relationship was scrutinized again, according to remarks by Myers in December.

However, CVB had to amend the stock-offering prospectus it filed in June with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The updated version, filed July 20, included a new description of the bank's largest borrowing relationship, which consisted of eight loans worth $85.2 million at the time.

"We have not advanced any new monies to this borrower since August 2008," CVB wrote in the filing.

However, the bank extended $9.3 million in credit to a Garrett entity through a promissory note dated March 17, 2009, according to a deed of trust. That was related to a $44 million promissory executed by Garrett in Aug. 25, 2008 in favor of CVB, according to the document.

It's not clear why the $9.3 million promissory note was issued, but Myers said in early December that CVB restructured one of its Garrett loans without being more specific.

Kirk Wright, Garrett Group's CEO, declined to comment. "It's not our practice to answer questions about financing and banking relationships," he said.

Some of Garrett's other banking relationships have become strained in recent months.

Bank Midwest, a Kansas City, Mo.-based bank owned by Dickinson Financial Corp., foreclosed on a $25.7 million loan to Garrett in December.
Auction

The collateral for the loan is land that was going to be developed into homes, according to John Baxter, who works on troubled loans at Bank Midwest.

"Then the market collapsed," Baxter said. "There's been a non-payment for a considerable amount of time."

The land is scheduled to be sold at an auction in Corona, Calif., on Jan. 13, according to court filings.

In November, Jefferson-Pilot foreclosed on a loan to Garrett. The unpaid balance and expenses on the loan totaled $15.3 million.

The collateral backing the loan was two office buildings in Ontario.

The properties were auctioned on Dec. 21, but there were no bids by third parties, according to two representatives at First American Title Insurance Co., which ran the auction as trustee.

Jefferson-Pilot, as the lender, made a $10 million bid and the buildings are now owned by the insurer, according to Kenneth Miller, a lawyer who represented Jefferson-Pilot in the auction.

That leaves a deficiency on the loan of roughly $5 million. Miller declined to comment further, citing "complex issues of California law" relating to resolving such a shortfall.
Temecula Valley

Another loan Garrett got from Temecula Valley Bank for $10.6 million in April 2008 became part of litigation over a land deal between Garrett, Stratford Ranch Partners and Artisan Communities, a homebuilder.

In May 2007, Garrett personally guaranteed a payment of $5 million to Stratford in return for part of a piece of land it was selling, according to a legal declaration by John Abel, an executive at Stratford.

Another portion of the land from the deal was transferred from a unit of Artisan to a Garret Group entity through a quitclaim deed in late May 2007, according to Abel.

The property was then pledged as part of collateral for the $10.6 million loan from Temecula Valley Bank, Abel claims.

Before going ahead with the deal, Stratford asked to see financial statements on Garrett. But Garrett CEO Kirk Wright suggested the sellers speak with CVB CEO Myers about the performance and financial status of the Garrett chairman instead, according to an email that was attached as an exhibit supporting Abel's declaration.

It's not clear whether Myers spoke with Stratford about Garrett.

Temecula Valley Bank, with total assets of $1.5 billion, failed on July 17. It was sold in a deal orchestrated by the FDIC to First-Citizens Bank, a unit of First Citizens Bancshares /quotes/comstock/15*!fcnc.a (FCNC.A 178.59, -1.11, -0.62%) .

The $10.6 million loan to Garrett was assumed by First-Citizens Bank, according to data from ForeclosureRadar.com.
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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #7
69. So many things wrong

My god, when are they ever planning to write down CRE losses? The property is foreclosed and sold off in auction for two thirds of the loan value and where the only thing remaining on the bank's books is the five million dollar loss----still the bank refuses to take the write off. No property, no loan, no receipts from servicing agents, no nothing. Just the loss. And the guy says, well California laws are funny that way.

This article clearly highlights that CVB and Garrett are complete shell companies whose only goal is to pay huge money to rich owners.

And the FDIC sits silent.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. Ex-McKinsey exec says Rajaratnam paid $1.75 mln
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100107/bs_nm/us_galleon_kumar

A former McKinsey & Co director told a court on Thursday that Galleon hedge fund founder Raj Rajaratnam paid him $1.75 million in exchange for confidential information on clients to make illegal stock trades.

Anil Kumar, the former management consultant executive, made the statement in pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud and securities fraud in Manhattan federal court.

He was the seventh person to plead guilty in what U.S. prosecutors have called the biggest hedge fund insider trading case ever in the country.

Prosecutor Jonathan Streeter told the judge that Kumar made $2.6 million in illicit funds from his dealings with Rajaratnam. Prosecutors said the Galleon manager traded in Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.N) in 2006 and 2008 and eBay Inc (EBAY.O) in 2008 based on information from Kumar.

Kumar had been advising McKinsey clients in the technology industry on business strategies, including potential acquisitions, since 1997.

"I understood Mr. Rajaratnam was going to trade securities. I understood that my conduct was unlawful," Kumar told U.S. District Court Judge Denny Chin, pausing at times to compose himself.

He could face up to 25 years in prison when he is sentenced on March 26.

Kumar said he was suffering from anxiety and depression and apologized to his colleagues at McKinsey, a company he worked from 1986 until he was let go in December.

Kumar, who is free on $5 million bail posted when he was arrested on October 16, said in court that he had conversations with Rajaratnam from 2003 to 2009. Some of those discussions were recorded in wiretaps by the FBI, tactics usually used in organized crime investigations.

Rajaratnam and Kumar met in the 1980s when they were at the same business school.

Kumar is cooperating with the government's investigation, prosecutors said, adding to former traders who have struck plea deals that may spell trouble for Rajaratnam's defense.

The Sri Lankan-born U.S. citizen has pleaded not guilty and vowed to fight the charges and go to trial. He is free on $100 million bail.

Twenty-one people, including employees of some of America's biggest companies including IBM Corp (IBM.N) and Intel Corp (INTC.O), have been criminally or civilly charged in the complex case involving at least two insider trading networks.

Kumar agreed and arranged to have an overseas entity receive payments from Rajaratnam through a Swiss bank account and to have the money invested in Galleon under the name of a worker in Kumar's household, prosecutors said.

According to U.S. prosecutors and a civil complaint by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Kumar shared inside information in August 2008 about transactions involving Advanced Micro Devices and two Abu Dhabi entities with Rajaratnam, who then traded on the information.

On October 7, 2008, AMD said it would spin off manufacturing operations through a multibillion dollar venture with the Advanced Technology Investment Co of Abu Dhabi.

AMD stock opened 25 percent higher that day, resulting in millions of dollars of illegal profits for Rajaratnam, Kumar and others, prosecutors said.

Kumar also tipped the hedge fund manager over an acquisition of ATI Technologies Inc by AMD in 2006, prosecutors said in court on Thursday. In court papers, Rajaratnam's lawyers have said information on that deal was public knowledge.

In October 2008, Kumar learned from an unidentified McKinsey client, a subsidiary of eBay Inc, that eBay planned layoffs and told Rajaratnam, the office of the Manhattan U.S. Attorney said in a statement. Galleon shorted eBay stock and then made about $500,000 after the layoffs were announced.

On Tuesday, prosecutors said they plan to file more charges against 52-year-old Rajaratnam, saying he made $36 million in illegal profits from insider trading, more than double the amount previously alleged.

A bail hearing is set for January 12. The government wants to detain Rajaratnam, who has asked for his bail to be reduced to $20 million from $100 million.

In a court filing on Thursday, his lawyers called "far-fetched" and "preposterous" the government's claim that he poses a serious risk of flight.

The cases are USA v Rajaratnam et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 09-01184; USA v Goffer et al in the same court, No. 09-mj-02438, and SEC v Galleon Management LP et al in the same court, No. 09-cv-08811.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #10
42. Former McKinsey tipster netted $2.6m
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8c1de872-fbd3-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

Former McKinsey director Anil Kumar on Thursday agreed to forfeit $2.6m prosecutors said he received for passing along confidential tips to Raj Rajaratnam, the Galleon hedge fund founder accused of masterminding a vast insider trading scheme.

The agreement came as Mr Kumar became the seventh person to plead guilty in the case. Prosecutors said that he was initially approached by Mr Rajaratnam in late 2003 or early 2004 and offered $500,000 a year to provide information about companies that he had access to through McKinsey.

The funds were allegedly paid by Mr Rajaratnam and were deposited for Mr Kumar in a Swiss bank account. Some of the money was reinvested for Mr Kumar through an account with Galleon, prosecutors said. He was paid $1.75m directly and earned a total of $2.6m through his involvement with the alleged Galleon scheme....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
13. Commercial mortgage lending down 54%
http://orlando.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2009/11/02/daily50.html?surround=etf&ana=e_article

Commercial and multifamily mortgage lending in the U.S. fell 12 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter and is down 54 percent from year ago levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The drop includes a year over year decrease in lending for all types of commercial properties. Loans for retail properties are down 62 percent. Loans for office properties are down 56 percent, MBA says.

Apartment lending is down 40 percent.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
27. Good thing the NYC market is still robust...ooops that's gobust :banghead:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/nyregion/08commercial.html?ref=nyregion

There are 920 football fields of available office space in Manhattan. More than 180 major buildings totaling $12.5 billion in value — from Columbus Tower at 1775 Broadway to the office tower 400 Madison Avenue — are in trouble, meaning in many cases they face foreclosure or bankruptcy, or have had problems making mortgage payments. Rents for commercial office space fell faster over the past two years than in any such period in the last half century.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #13
34. how bout some nice places just West of the FDR Drive/SSV?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
14.  Making Wall Street Pay By Dean Baker
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/nov/09/us-wall-street-financial-transactions-tax

Wall Street's irresponsible bankers caused this economic crisis. It's only fair that they pay to clean up their mess


November 11, 2009 "The Guardian" -- The deficit hawk crew, famous for missing the $8tn housing bubble that wrecked the economy, is now on the warpath, pressing the case for a big, new, national sales tax. They claim that the United States badly needs additional revenue to address projected budget shortfalls.

While we may need additional revenue at some point, it makes far more sense to impose a financial transactions tax, which would primarily hit the Wall Street banks that gave us this disaster, than to tax the consumption of ordinary working families. We can raise large amounts of money by taxing the speculation of the Wall Street high-flyers while barely affecting the sort of financial dealings that most of us do in our daily lives.

The logic of a financial transactions tax is simple. It would impose a modest fee on trades of stocks, futures, credit default swaps and other financial instruments. For example, the UK puts a 0.25% tax on the sale or purchase of shares of stock. This has very little impact on people who buy stock with the intent of holding it for a long period of time.

For example, if someone buys $10,000 of stock, they will pay $25 in tax at the time of purchase. If they sell the stock 10 years later for $20,000, they will have to pay $50 in tax. The total tax would be equivalent to an increase of 0.8 percentage points in the capital gains tax.

By contrast, if someone is interested in buying stock at 1.00pm to sell at 2.00pm, this tax is likely to take a bit hit out of their expected profits. The same applies people who are speculating in futures, credit default swaps and other financial instruments.

We can raise more than $140bn a year taxing financial transactions, an amount equal to 1% of GDP. Before we look to impose a national sales tax, or value-added tax, as the deficit hawk crew would like, we should insist that we first put in place a set of financial transactions taxes.

A national sales tax will primarily hit the consumption of ordinary workers. People will pay for it in all of their everyday purchases. Food, clothing, medicine - everything will cost a bit more as a result of a sales tax. Poor and middle-class people will end up paying a larger share of their income in this tax. This is both because they spend a larger share of their income than the wealthy and also because they spend a larger share in the United States. While the wealthy may have the opportunity to travel extensively in Europe or in countries not affected by the national sales tax, few low- or middle-income people will have this option.

Since the financial sector is the source of the country's current economic and budget problems it also makes sense to have this sector bear the brunt of any new taxes that may be needed. The economic collapse caused by Wall Street's irrational exuberance has led to a huge increase in the country debt burden. It seems only fair that Wall Street bear the brunt of the clean-up costs. A financial transactions tax is the way to make sure that this happens.

In short, we have to tell the deficit hawk crew, many of whom earned their fortune on Wall Street, to slow down. The country does face serious budget problems, even if they may not be as bad as this crew claims. However, if we need taxes to address a budget shortfall, then Wall Street is the place to start. After we have put in place a tax on Wall Street speculation, if we still need additional money, we can talk about a tax that will primarily affect the middle class.

Dean Baker is co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. Goldman to sell out as SMFG raises cash
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cf3fbce-faf4-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html

Goldman Sachs looks set to sever its financial ties to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, putting an end to a relationship that began in the late 1980s.

The Goldman move is part of a planned Y888.9bn ($9.6bn) capital raising by Japan’s second-biggest bank.

Under Wednesday’s deal, Goldman will convert $1.1bn of preferred shares – a hybrid of debt and equity that paid the US bank a high dividend – in SMFG into common shares over the next 12 months. People close to the situation said that Goldman intended to divest a large part or all of the common shares but said that the Wall Street bank’s business relationship with SMFG would remain intact.

Goldman declined to comment.

People close to the matter said that the US bank does not have any economic exposure to SMFG because it has hedged its stake to prevent its quarterly earnings from being affected by the movement in the Japanese bank’s shares.

Goldman plans to use the common shares it will receive to unwind its hedging position. The deal could leave it with no equity in SMFG, insiders said.

A decision by Goldman to sell out of SMFG would be a milestone in the 24-year relationship and close a chapter in the often-troubled history of US bank investment in Japan.

Sumitomo Bank, SMFG’s predecessor, first invested in Goldman in 1986 when the then-private partnership badly needed capital. Goldman returned the favour in 2003, injecting Y150bn of preferred shares into the cash-strapped SMFG. Goldman sold about a third of that stake in April 2008.

The relationship was cemented by an agreement that allowed Goldman to tap SMFG’s vast balance sheet to help its corporate clients execute trades and deals.


The Goldman-SMFG tie-up was a model for Morgan Stanley’s decision to sell a stake to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to raise capital at the height of the financial crisis in 2008. As part of the agreement, Morgan Stanley and MUFG also agreed to pool resources for deals in the US.

Goldman’s likely exit from SMFG comes only months after Citigroup sold its Japanese brokerage arm in an effort to raise much-needed capital.

SMFG’s raising of Y888.9bn through a share sale is likely to dilute holders of existing stock by about a third. The money will partly be used to expand its Asian operations.

The record onslaught of share issuance by Japanese financial institutions and companies last year weighed heavily on an equity market that was struggling to stay above the 10,000 mark, and was underperforming global peers.

However, the benchmark Nikkei 225 has gained 1.8 per cent since in the first few days of trading this year, in line with other major markets around the world, while Sumitomo Mitsui’s shares rallied 5.5 per cent to Y2,800 on Wednesday.

Jonathan Allum, a strategist at KBC in London, said: “The strength of the share price so far this year suggests that the market has lost its capacity to be discombobulated by secondary equity issuance.”

WHEN THE CATERPILLAR IS DRAINED OF ALL BODILY JUICES, THE WASP RELEASES ITS PREY....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #4
30. Top banks invited to Basel risk talks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/310b5c88-fb0d-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html

The Bank for International Settlements will gather top central bankers and financiers for a meeting in Basel this weekend amid rising concern about a resurgence of the “excessive risk-taking” that sparked the financial crisis.

In its invitation, the BIS cited concerns that “financial firms are returning to the aggressive behaviour that prevailed during the pre-crisis period”.

The BIS, known as the central banks’ bank, outlined in a restricted note to participants some specific proposals that it believes could create a healthier financial system. Those proposals including lowering return-on-equity targets for the banks as a way to discourage such risk taking.

Private sector bank chiefs attending the meeting at the BIS in Basel include Larry Fink of BlackRock and Vikram Pandit of Citigroup .

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs chief executive, and Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, were invited but are not planning to attend.

(ARE THEY SITTING BY THE PHONE, WAITING TO BE CALLED TO SERVE THEIR COUNTRY AS FED CHAIRMAN AND TREASURY SECRETARY? OR IS THIS JUST PART OF THE "DON'T CALL US, WE'LL CALL YOU THAT THEY SHOWED OBAMA? ---DEMETER)

The meeting comes at a moment of intense uncertainty, with the global economy’s tentative recovery shadowed by “the overhang of private-sector debt and rapidly rising public debt”, and high unemployment.

“The concern here is that the prolonged assurance of very cheap and ample funding may encourage excessive risk-taking,” the BIS invitation note says.

“For example, low financing costs coupled with a steep yield curve may make participants vulnerable to future increases in policy rates – a situation reminiscent of the 1994 bond market turbulence which followed the Federal Reserve’s exit from a prolonged period of low policy rates.”

The note also expresses concern about deteriorating public finances and warned that doubt about fiscal prudence “could seriously disrupt bond markets if it triggered concerns about creditworthiness or inflation because of concerns with government incentives to inflate debt away.”

Among the charts included with the note is one indicating the cost of credit insurance against sovereign defaults.

In the past, the BIS has invited the top chiefs of private-sector banks to such gatherings in Basel on a yearly basis. But such meetings have been more frequent recently.

“These meetings are an attempt to bring a real world perspective to the deliberations of the wise men of the world,” one Federal Reserve official said. Central bankers “want to get a sense of what the markets are reacting to.”
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #4
31.  Citi hit by legal action in bankers’ pay row
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/71ec967c-fb08-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html

Citigroup is embroiled in a legal row with a former senior executive whose multi-million dollar severance package was frozen last year at the height of the political storm over bankers’ pay, according to people close to the situation.

The decision by Kevin Kessinger, a former head of technology, to take legal action to force Citi to resume paying his severance is likely to fuel the debate over Wall Street’s compensation just as banks are set to announce 2009 bonuses.

People familiar with the matter said Mr Kessinger had decided to take Citi to arbitration, a form of out-of-court dispute resolution.

It is understood that his severance package had been frozen for more than six months.

Citi declined to comment. Mr Kessinger, who is now chief information officer at Canada’s TD Bank, did not respond to requests for comment.

In a surprise move in June last year, Citi suspended payments to a number of recently departed senior executives.

Those receiving the payments included Mr Kessinger and Michael Klein, its former top dealmaker.

At the time, Citi executives said the move was aimed at defusing the political row over financial sector pay that had been sparked by news of large bonuses for some executives at AIG, the stricken insurer.

Legal experts had said Citi was vulnerable to legal action from the former executives because severance packages are binding agreements between the two sides.

However, officials at Citi – which has been repeatedly bailed out by the US government – had replied that former executives understood the reason behind the move and in discussions had said that they were unlikely to take legal action.

People familiar with the bank had suggested Citi would resume payments once the political furore over compensation had died down.

However, Wall Street pay has remained a controversial topic among politicians and the public and is likely to become an even hotter issue when banks unveil their bonus payments with fourth-quarter results later this month.

It is unclear whether Citi plans to resume payments to Mr Kessinger or whether the two sides might reach a settlement during arbitration.

However, it is thought to be significant that last month’s repayment by Citi of $20bn in federal bail-out funds has freed the bank from government restrictions on bankers’ pay.

Separately, it emerged that John Havens, the head of Citi’s investment bank, was the company’s highest-paid executive in 2009, with total compensation of about $9m.

Mr Haven’s package, revealed in a regulatory filing, was mostly comprised of Citi’s shares.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #31
36.  Deutch departure to aid Citi revamp
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 10:00 PM by Demeter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/893a314a-fbad-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

Citigroup is to take another step in the revamp of its board with the departure of John Deutch, a former head of the Central Intelligence Agency who is one of the US bank’s longest-serving directors.

(bcci was shut down on July 5th, 1991:
http://articles.latimes.com/1991-07-30/news/wr-177_1_independence-bank

Over the years, BCCI enjoyed acclaim in developing nations for extending credit in areas Western banks avoided. It was reputed to be more sympathetic to Third World economic problems than what are often seen in developing nations as the indifferent financial institutions of the industrialized world. It developed close relationships to central banks in developing countries, where officials often deposited funds in BCCI accounts.

But it also has been linked for years to criminal enterprises--tied, for example, to drug-related money-laundering activities, including some involving former Panamanian dictator Manuel A. Noriega. In 1990, two of its units pleaded guilty in federal court in Tampa, Fla., to money laundering. Later that year, six current and former BCCI employees were convicted of conspiring to launder $32 million in cocaine money.

Last July 5, banking regulators from around the world teamed up to shut down most BCCI operations, alleging widespread fraud.

What is unique about BCCI is not its size but its reach. BCCI's operations and influence stretch throughout the world to about 70 countries and 1 million depositors. Its principal operations are based in Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands, two areas with some of the world's most lax banking regulations.

With $20 billion in assets, the bank is not especially big by world standards. Indeed, it is smaller than California's four largest banks--BankAmerica, Security Pacific National Bank, Wells Fargo and First Interstate.

Q. What is BCCI accused of?

A. BCCI's seizure was prompted by the alleged disappearance of billions of dollars. Some investigators estimate that associated losses could be as high as $15 billion, which would make it by far history's biggest banking scandal.

Where all of that money went is still a mystery. The seizure followed an audit by the accounting firm Price Waterhouse that showed, among other things, that the bank failed to record deposits, apparently in an effort to camouflage huge losses on bad loans and investments. In addition, British authorities allege that BCCI assisted people in dodging taxes by falsifying transaction records.


Mr Deutch, who has been on the board of Citi or its predecessor companies for 13 years, had told other directors he would step down after the annual shareholder meeting in April, people close to the situation said.

(HAS CITI BEEN THE REPLACEMENT BANK FOR THE CIA SPECIAL OPS AND ITS DRUG SMUGGLING?--DEMETER)


His departure will increase pressure on Michael Armstrong, the former chief executive of AT&T, who has been on the board of Citi or its predecessor companies since 1989. Mr Armstrong served as chairman of Citi’s audit and risk management committee in the run-up to the crisis before being replaced by Mr Deutch.

Mr Deutch stepped down as head of the audit committee last year and is on its nomination and governance committee.

At last year’s annual meeting, Mr Armstrong and Mr Deutch survived a shareholder rejection only because of a controversial rule about the way brokers’ votes are calculated, prompting activist investors to call for their resignation. The rule has since being scrapped by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The resignation of Mr Deutch, 70, will offer Citi the chance to inject more new blood into the board.

Citi, which has ceded a stake of about 27 per cent to the US government, declined to comment.

People close to the situation said Mr Deutch would not be immediately replaced – a decision that will reduce the number of directors to 16.

However, Richard Parsons, Citi’s chairman, has said the company is still looking for new directors. People familiar with the situation said Citi was searching for a non-US director to reflect its large international presence.

SEE ALSO: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Credit_and_Commerce_International#The_forced_closure_of_BCCI
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #4
33. AIG bail-out attracts further scrutiny
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b8bf07c-fbee-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

The government bail-out of AIG’s counterparties was placed under fresh scrutiny on Thursday with the publication of e-mails showing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York pushing the insurance group to keep details of the deal private.

Unresolved in the e-mail traffic between lawyers and regulators is whether the New York Fed, regulator to much of Wall Street, acted out of concern for the market or for its own political position.

Darrell Issa, the senior Republican on the House oversight committee, requested information from the New York Fed and AIG about the circumstances behind $27.1bn in payments to banks, ranging from Goldman Sachs to Société Générale, made to cancel derivatives contracts.

He obtained e-mails showing the New York Fed pushing the insurance group to delay releasing information related to the payments and restrict the degree of detail provided to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Pressure from the SEC and Congress prompted AIG to file more details later.

“The American taxpayers, who own approximately 80 per cent of AIG, deserve full and complete disclosure under our nation’s securities laws, not the withholding of politically inconvenient information,” said Mr Issa. “This news ought to serve as a cautionary tale to those who advocate giving the Federal Reserve even more power over the US economy.”

The New York Fed defended its communications with AIG. “It was appropriate as a party to the Maiden Lane III transactions for the New York Fed to comment on a number of issues, including disclosures, with the understanding that the final decision rested with AIG and its external securities counsel,” said Thomas Baxter, the New York Fed’s general counsel.

“Our focus was on ensuring accuracy and protecting the taxpayers’ interests during a time of severe economic distress,” he said. “All information was in fact disclosed that was required to be disclosed by the company, showing that counterparties received par value. There was no effort to mislead the public.”

The Fed has made no secret of its attempts to prevent the disclosure of the names of the banks who received payments. Officials at the central bank argued publicly last year that disclosure would hurt AIG’s future business and could destabilise the market.

As details have emerged, the Fed has continued to defend the payments, arguing there were risks to the financial system had AIG collapsed and been unable to fulfil its contractual obligations, and that it proved impractical to obtain discounts on the deal from the banks, with parties including the French banking regulator opposing a “haircut”.

The New York Fed used a special purchase vehicle, Maiden Lane III, to buy collateralised debt obligations from 16 institutions, which were AIG’s credit default swap counterparties.

The institutions had been demanding increasing collateral payments from AIG, threatening to tip the insurance group into bankruptcy. The New York Fed decided that the only way to protect the insurer was to buy the underlying CDOs from the banks.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #4
64. M Stanley settles Chinese derivatives lawsuit
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4db55bd4-faf6-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html

Morgan Stanley has ended a confrontation with a Chinese company over disputed hedging contracts in an out-of-court settlement that may, however, provide a precedent for similar disputes.

The Morgan Stanley dispute with China Haisheng Juice Holdings was the most public of many between foreign investment banks and dozens of mainland Chinese companies over loss-making derivatives deals.

The scale of the losses in the wake of the financial crisis triggered a clampdown on derivatives by regulators in Beijing and criticism of the practices of foreign banks.

The two companies have agreed to end legal proceedings over renminbi-dollar hedges which they had been fighting in courts in the UK and China since last April.

Under the settlement, Haisheng will pay Morgan Stanley $7m, far less than the $26m the investment bank had been fighting for in London’s High Court after the Chinese company ceased payments on the hedges.


Haisheng will dismiss its legal proceedings in Xian, Shaanxi province, where it was counter-suing Morgan Stanley for allegedly mis-selling the contracts.

“The parties have resolved the dispute between them to their mutual satisfaction,” said Morgan Stanley. Haisheng did not respond to a request for comment.

A legal battle in China would have subjected Morgan Stanley to financial and political risks, lawyers said, making the settlement the most attractive option.

But the agreement could encourage other Chinese companies to take legal action against foreign banks at home as a tactic to escape loss-making contracts, lawyers warned. Global banks are reluctant to fight cases in China, where judges are appointed by local communist leaders who often control large companies in their areas.

The leading foreign investor in Haisheng is Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley’s competitor. Goldman’s private equity arm holds 20 per cent of Haisheng’s Hong Kong-listed shares.

Goldman Sachs is itself involved in a dispute over derivatives with a Chinese company. Shenzhen Nanshan Power last week refused demands by J. Aron & Company, a trading subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, to pay $80m for alleged default on oil-hedging contracts.

In a statement last week, Shenzhen Nanshan Power said it would do its best to negotiate with J. Aron but that it would not rule out a lawsuit. Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

SOME COUNTRIES AREN'T AFRAID OF THE BANKSTERS. WHY IS OURS?
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:40 PM
Response to Original message
9. Guess who is the second largest donor to the DNC.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:01 PM
Response to Reply #9
23. Smart money always hedges its bets.
I will bet, without a hedge, that the donations dramatically increased after McCain's lime green jello themed campaign rally.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #9
43. AMAZING GRACE
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:50 PM
Response to Original message
12. Got a couple of graphs for y'all.
Shows consumer debt levels sharply decresing ( means no feeding the economy via credit)
aks : NO consumer recovery, as least recovery as defined by Wash.



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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #12
22. Thanks for this.
My brain is tired. So I will take a closer look in the morning. Off the bat, though, I see two positives and one negative from this. Negative: This will further cripple the American economy and portends an impact on the global economy, too. This particularly applies to the countries that still have a mercantilist economy (i.e. the export model) like China, Japan and Germany. Domestically - the sudden and significant impact is wages. How do we replace those?

Positives: (1) Anything that drives down the reliance on debt, particularly in the category of discretionary spending (indicated by the blue line), is a mark in the positive column; and (2) this will forcibly reconfigure our economy toward a more sustainable future. Crushing debt-to-earnings ratios are the prime recipe ingredient for systemic failure. If you look to the history books you will find that, as a nation and per capita, we held similar debt-to-income ratios as today. I repeat: the debt levels were similar but, unfortunately, modern consumption has outpaced the infamous levels of 1924-1929.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
15. How the Servant Became a Predator Finance's Five Fatal Flaws By William K. Black


By William K. Black, Assoc. Professor, Univ. of Missouri, Kansas City


What exactly is the function of the financial sector in our society? Simply this: Its sole function is supplying capital efficiently to aid the real economy. The financial sector is a tool to help those that make real tools, not an end in itself. But five fatal flaws in the financial sector's current structure have created a monster that drains the real economy, promotes fraud and corruption, threatens democracy, and causes recurrent, intensifying crises.

1. The financial sector harms the real economy.

Even when not in crisis, the financial sector harms the real economy. First, it is vastly too large. The finance sector is an intermediary -- essentially a "middleman". Like all middlemen, it should be as small as possible, while still being capable of accomplishing its mission. Otherwise it is inherently parasitical. Unfortunately, it is now vastly larger than necessary, dwarfing the real economy it is supposed to serve. Forty years ago, our real economy grew better with a financial sector that received one-twentieth as large a percentage of total profits (2%) than does the current financial sector (40%). The minimum measure of how much damage the bloated, grossly over-compensated finance sector causes to the real economy is this massive increase in the share of total national income wasted through the finance sector's parasitism.

Second, the finance sector is worse than parasitic. In the title of his recent book, The Predator Statehttp://books.simonandschuster.com/Predator-State/James-Galbraith/9781416566830, James Galbraith aptly names the problem. The financial sector functions as the sharp canines that the predator state uses to rend the nation. In addition to siphoning off capital for its own benefit, the finance sector misallocates the remaining capital in ways that harm the real economy in order to reward already-rich financial elites harming the nation. The facts are alarming:

• Corporate stock repurchases and grants of stock to officers have exceeded new capital raised by the U.S. capital markets this decade. That means that the capital markets decapitalize the real economy. Too often, they do so in order to enrich corrupt corporate insiders through accounting fraud or backdated stock options.

• The U.S. real economy suffers from critical shortages of employees with strong mathematical, engineering, and scientific backgrounds. Graduates in these three fields all too frequently choose careers in finance rather than the real economy because the financial sector provides far greater executive compensation. Individuals with these quantitative backgrounds work overwhelmingly in devising the kinds of financial models that were important contributors to the financial crisis. We take people that could be conducting the research & development work essential to the success of our real economy (including its success in becoming sustainable) and put them instead in financial sector activities where, because of that sector's perverse incentives, they further damage both the financial sector and the real economy. Michael Moore makes this point in his latest film, Capitalism: A Love Story.

• The financial sector's fixation on accounting earnings leads it to pressure U.S manufacturing and service firms to export jobs abroad, to deny capital to firms that are unionized, and to encourage firms to use foreign tax havens to evade paying U.S. taxes.

• It misallocates capital by creating recurrent financial bubbles. Instead of flowing to the places where it will be most useful to the real economy, capital gets directed to the investments that create the greatest fraudulent accounting gains. The financial sector is particularly prone to providing exceptional amounts of funds to what I call accounting "control frauds". Control frauds are seemingly-legitimate entities used by the people that control them as a fraud "weapons." In the financial sector, accounting frauds are the weapons of choice. Accounting control frauds are so attractive to lenders and investors because they produce record, guaranteed short-term accounting "profits." They optimize by growing rapidly like other Ponzi schemes, making loans to borrowers unlikely to be able to repay them (once the bubble bursts), and engaging in extreme leverage. Unless there is effective regulation and prosecution, this misallocation creates an epidemic of accounting control fraud that hyper-inflates financial bubbles. The FBI began warning of an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud in its congressional testimony in September 2004. It also reports that 80% of mortgage fraud losses come when lender personnel are involved in the fraud. (The other 20% of the fraud would have been impossible had these fraudulent lenders not suborned their underwriting systems and their internal and external controls in order to maximize their growth of bad loans.)

• Because the financial sector cares almost exclusively about high accounting yields and "profits", it misallocates capital away from firms and entrepreneurs that could best improve the real economy (e.g., by reducing short-term profits through funding the expensive research & development that can produce innovative goods and superior sustainability) and could best reduce poverty and inequality (e.g., through microcredit finance that would put the "Payday lenders" and predatory mortgage lenders out of business).

• It misallocates capital by securing enormous governmental subsidies for financial firms, particularly those that have the greatest political power and would otherwise fail due to incompetence and fraud.

2. The financial sector produces recurrent, intensifying economic crises here and abroad.

The current crisis is only the latest in a long list of economic crises caused by the financial sector. When it is not regulated and policed effectively, the financial sector produces and hyper-inflates bubbles that cause severe economic crises. The current crisis, absent massive, global governmental bailouts, would have caused the catastrophic failure of the global economy. The financial sector has become far more unstable since this crisis began and its members used their lobbying power to convince Congress to gimmick the accounting rules to hide their massive losses. Secretary Geithner has exacerbated the problem by declaring that the largest financial institutions are exempt from receivership regardless of their insolvency. These factors greatly increase the likelihood that these systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) will cause a global financial crisis.

3. The financial sector's predation is so extraordinary that it now drives the upper one percent of our nation's income distribution and has driven much of the increase in our grotesque income inequality.

4. The financial sector's predation and its leading role in committing and aiding and abetting accounting control fraud combine to:

• Corrupt financial elites and professionals, and

• Spur a rise in Social Darwinism in an attempt to justify the elites' power and wealth. Accounting control frauds suborn accountants, attorneys, and appraisers and create what is known as a "Gresham's dynamic" -- a system in which bad money drives out good. When this dynamic occurs, honest professionals are pushed out and cheaters are allowed to prosper. Executive compensation has become so massive, so divorced from performance, and so perverse that it, too, creates a Gresham's dynamic that encourages widespread accounting fraud by both financial firms and firms in the real economy.

As financial sector elites became obscenely wealthy through predation and fraud, their psychological incentives to embrace unhealthy, anti-democratic Social Darwinism surged. While they were, by any objective measure, the worst elements of the public, their sycophants in the media and the recipients of their political and charitable contributions worshiped them as heroic. Finance CEOs adopted and spread the myth that they were smarter, harder working, and more innovative than the rest of us. They repeated the story of how they rose to the top entirely through their own brilliance and willingness to embrace risk. All of their employees weren't simply above average, they told us, but exceptional. They hated collectivism and adored Ayn Rand.

5. The CEOs of the largest financial firms are so powerful that they pose a critical risk to the financial sector, the real economy, and our democracy.

The CEOs can directly, through the firm, and by "bundling" contributions of its officers and employees, easily make enormous political contributions and use their PR firms and lobbyists to manipulate the media and public officials. The ability of the financial sector to block meaningful reform after bringing the world to the brink of a second great depression proves how exceptional its powers are to corrupt nearly every critical sector of American public and economic life. The five largest U.S. banks control roughly half of all bank assets. They use their political and financial power to provide themselves with competitive advantages that allow them to dominate smaller banks.

This excessive power was a major contributor to the ongoing crisis. Effective financial and securities regulation was anathema to the CEOs' ideology (and the greatest danger to their frauds, wealth, and power) and they successfully set out to destroy it. That produced what criminologists refer to as a "criminogenic environment" (an atmosphere that breeds criminal activity) that prompted the epidemic of accounting control fraud that hyper-inflated the housing bubble.

The financial industry's power and progressive corruption combined to produce the perfect white-collar crimes. They successfully lobbied politicians, for example, to legalize the obscenity of "dead peasants' insurance" (in which an employer secretly takes out insurance on an employee and receives a windfall in the event of that person's untimely death) that Michael Moore exposes in chilling detail. State legislatures changed the law to allow a pure tax scam to subsidize large corporations at the expense of their taxpayers.

Caution: Never Forget the Need to Fix the Real Economy

Economic reform efforts are focused almost entirely on fixing finance because the finance sector is so badly broken that it produces recurrent, intensifying crises. The latest crisis brought us to the point of global catastrophe, so the focus on finance is obviously rational. But the focus on finance carries a grave risk. Remember, the sole purpose of finance is to aid the real economy. Our ultimate focus needs to be on the real economy, which creates goods and services, our jobs, and our incomes. The real economy came off the rails at least three decades ago for the great majority of Americans.

We need to commit to fixing the real economy by guaranteeing that everyone willing to work can work and making the real economy sustainable rather than recurrently causing global environmental crises. We must not spend virtually all of our reform efforts on the finance sector and assume that if we solve its defects we will have solved the other fundamental reasons why the real economy has remained so dysfunctional for decades. We need to be work simultaneously to fix finance and the real economy.

Roosevelt Institute Braintruster William K. Black is an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He is a white-collar criminologist and was a senior financial regulator. He is the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One.

*Originally published on the Roosevelt Institute's blog, New Deal 2.0.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 10:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
49. This should be a post of it's own.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #49
53. Feel Free!
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #15
67. Wow! What a fantastically cogent analysis. I've only read the first three
Edited on Sun Jan-10-10 09:47 AM by Joe Chi Minh
points, but I have to take time out. It sounds like a joke, but I'm in some kind of shock.

The article is already beginning to sound like a weapon of mass reconstruction, if all the negatives are remedied, granted that our economies - probably quite propitiously - are not ever likely to be the same again, post peak-oil. Identifying that it is its massive disproportion that has played such a seminal role in this economic cataclysm, exposes the nonsense both that finance is the paragon of economic sectors, and that the necessary corollary of its total elimination is what its critics seek; when it's not a simplistic 'either' 'or' matter at all. Pellucidly exposing the Straw men erected by the malefactors behind this economic earth quake will surely be half the battle.

I know it won't be popular on here, but I think there is a strong case for executing, Chinese-style, deliberate accounting-control fraudsters in the future. And that should include the politicans and lobbyists knowingly involved. It is not as if their effects are unknown or ambiguous, historically. It's treason, plain and simple, of a major order.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #67
71. FRSP, Baby! It's the Wave of the Future







The once and future solution for unjustified power-grabbing and theft.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
16.  The Economic Crisis And What Must Be Done By Richard C. Cook
Edited on Fri Jan-08-10 08:04 PM by Demeter
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24076.htm

The United States does not control its own destiny. Rather it is controlled by an international financial elite, of which the American branch works out of big New York banks like J.P. Morgan Chase, Wall Street investment firms such as Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve System. They in turn control the White House, Congress, the military, the mass media, the intelligence agencies, both political parties, the universities, etc. No one can rise to the top in any of these institutions without the elite’s stamp of approval.

This elite has been around since the nation began, becoming increasingly dominant as the 19th century progressed. A key date was passage of the National Banking Act of 1863, when the system was put into place whereby federal government debt was used to collateralize bank lending. Since then we’ve paid the freight through our taxes for bank control of the economy. The final nails in the coffin came with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

In 1929 the bankers plunged the nation into the Great Depression by constricting the money supply. With Franklin D. Roosevelt as president, the nation struggled through the decade of the 1930s but did not pull out of the Depression until the industrial explosion during World War II.

After the war came the Golden Age of the U.S. economy, when the working man, protected by strong labor unions, became a true partner in the prosperity of the industrial age. That era lasted a full generation. The bankers were largely spectators as Americans led the world in exports, standard of living, science and space exploration, and every measure of health, longevity, and culture.

Roosevelt had kept the bankers subservient to the interests of the economy at large. The Federal Reserve was part of the New Deal team, and interest rates were held at historic lows despite a large federal deficit. One main impact was the huge increase in home ownership. After World War II, the G.I. Bill allowed home ownership to grow further and millions of veterans to attend college. The influx of educated graduates led to productivity growth and the emergence of new high-tech industries.

But the bankers were laying their plans. In the early 1950s they got the government to agree to allow the Federal Reserve to escape its subservience to the U.S. Treasury Department and set interest rates on its own. Rates rose throughout the 1950s and 1960s. By the time of the interest rate hikes of 1968, the economy was slowing down. Both federal budget and trade deficits were beginning to replace the post-war surpluses. High interest rates were the likely cause.

In 1971, President Richard Nixon removed the dollar’s gold peg, allowing the huge inflation resulting from oil price increases that the international bankers engineered through control of U.S. foreign policy when Henry Kissinger was national security adviser and secretary of state. Nixon’s opening to China resulted in early agreements, also overseen by banking interests, to begin to transfer U.S. industry to overseas producers like China which had cheap labor costs.

By the mid-1970s, the U.S. had been taken over by a behind the scenes coup-d’etat that included events in 1963 when President John F. Kennedy was assassinated by a conspiracy that could only have been instigated by the highest levels of world financial control. In the election of 1976, David Rockefeller succeeded in placing fellow Trilateral Commission member Jimmy Carter in the White House, but Carter upset the banking community, thoroughly Zionist in orientation, by working toward peace in the Middle East and elsewhere.

I was working in the Carter White House in 1979-80. Unbeknownst to the president, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, another Rockefeller protégé, suddenly raised interest rates to fight the inflation the bankers had caused by the OPEC oil price deals, and plunged the nation into recession. Carter was made to look weak and uninformed and was defeated in the election of 1980 by Republican candidate Ronald Reagan. It was through the “Reagan Revolution” that the regulatory controls over the banking industry were lifted, mainly in allowing the banks to use their fractional reserve privileges in making mortgage loans.

Volcker’s recession shattered American manufacturing and hastened the flight of jobs abroad. Under the “Reagan Doctrine,” the U.S. military embarked on an unprecedented mission of world conquest by attacking one small nation at a time, starting with Nicaragua. Global capitalism was also on the march, with the U.S. armed forces its own private police force. With the invasion of Iraq under George H.W. Bush in 1991, mainland Asia was revealed as the principle target.

The economy was floated by productivity gains through computer automation and a huge sell-off of assets through the merger-acquisition bubble of the late 1980s which ended in a recession. This resulted in the defeat of Bush by Bill Clinton in the election of 1992. Clinton was able to create another bubble through a strong dollar policy that attracted foreign capital.

The dot-com bubble that resulted lasted all the way through to the crash of December 2000. Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force led the way in the destruction of the sovereign state of Yugoslavia, whereby the international bankers took over the resource wealth of the entire Balkan region, and the U.S. military gained forward bases for further incursions into Asia.

Do we need to say that none of this was ever voted on by the American electorate? But they bought into it nevertheless, both with their silence and through participation in a generally favorable job market in the emerging service occupations, particularly finance.

By the time George W. Bush was inaugurated president in January 2001, the U.S. was facing a disaster. $4 trillion in wealth had vanished when the dot.com bubble collapsed. NAFTA caused even more American manufacturing jobs to disappear abroad. The Neocons who were moving into key jobs in the Pentagon knew they would soon have new wars to fight in the Middle East, with invasion plans for Afghanistan and Iraq ready to be pulled off the shelf.

But the U.S. had no economic engine available to generate the tax revenues Bush would need for the planned wars. At this moment Chairman Alan Greenspan of the Federal Reserve stepped in. Over a two year period from 2001-2003 the Fed lowered interest rates by over 500 basis points. Meanwhile, the federal government removed all regulatory controls on mortgage lending, and the housing bubble was on. $4 trillion in new home loans were pumped into the economy, much of it through subprime loans borrowers could not afford.

The Fed began to put on the brakes in 2003, but the mighty work of re-floating a moribund economy had been accomplished. By late 2006 another recession loomed, but it would take two more years before the crisis of October 2008 brought the entire system down.

The impact on the job market was immediate and profound. By the time Barack Obama was elected president in November 2008, the U.S. was mired in seemingly endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the worst recession since the Great Depression was picking up speed. In order to prevent total disaster, the Bush administration ended its eight years of catastrophic misrule with a flourish, by allocating over $700 billion in financial system bailouts to cover the bad loans the banks had been making since Greenspan gave the housing bubble the green light.

It is now November 2009. Since Barack Obama was inaugurated in January, unemployment has soared from 7.9 percent to 10.2 percent. A few hundred billion dollars were allocated for “stimulus” purposes, but most of that went to pay unemployment benefits and to keep state and local governments from laying off more employees.

A fraction has been distributed for highway improvements, but largely through the bank bailouts the federal deficit has been running at an annual rate of $1.5 trillion, by far the largest in history, with the national debt now topping $12 trillion. Ironically, those Americans who still have productive jobs continue to grow in efficiency, with productivity up over five percent in the last year.

So much federal money has been spent that the Obama administration has been struggling to make its health care proposals budget-neutral through a raft of new taxes, fees, and penalties, and by announcing in recent days that the government’ first priority must now shift to deficit reduction. The word “austerity” has been mentioned for the first time since the Carter administration. Yet Congress voted $655 billion in military expenditures to continue fighting in the Middle East. A U.S. military attack on Iran, possibly in conjunction with Israel, would surprise no one.

So where do we now stand?

At present, the Federal Reserve is trying to prevent a total economic collapse. Interest rates are near-zero, to the chagrin of foreign investors in U.S. Treasury securities, and close to half of new Treasury debt instruments have been bought by the Federal Reserve itself as a way of providing free money for federal government expenditures.

But the U.S. economy shows no signs of coming back, with no economic driver emerging that could bring it back. For all the talk about alternative energy, there has been no significant growth of any home-grown industry that could possibly make up so much lost ground in either the short or the long-term.

The industries in the U.S. that are holding up are the military, including arms exports, universities that are attracting large numbers of students from abroad, especially China, and health care, especially for the aging baby boomer population. But the war industry produces nothing with a long-term economic benefit, and health care exists mainly to treat sick people, not produce anything new.

None of this provides a foundation that can bring about a restoration of prosperity to 300 million people when the jobs of making articles of consumption are increasingly scarce. On top of everything else, since government inevitably looks to its own requirements first, the total tax burden continues to increase to the point where the average employee now pays close to 50 percent of his or her income on taxes of all types, including federal and state income taxes, real estate taxes, payroll taxes, excise taxes, government fees, etc. Plus the cost of utilities continues to rise steadily and threatens to skyrocket if cap-and-trade legislation is passed.

The Obama administration has no plans to deal with any of this. They have projected a budget for 15 years hence that shows the budget deficit decreasing and tax revenues going way up, but it is all lies. They have no roadmap for getting us there and no plans for following the roadmap if it portrayed a realistic goal. And yet the U.S. military is still trying to conquer Asia. It is madness.

And it is madness because the big decisions are not made by the U.S., by Congress, or by the Obama administration. The U.S. has, for half-a-century, been marching to the tune played by the international financial elite, and this fact did not change with the election of 2008. The financiers have put the people of this nation $57 trillion in debt, according to the latest reports, counting debt at the federal, state, business, and household levels. Interest alone on this debt is over $3 trillion of a GDP of $14 trillion. Failure of our political leadership to deal with this tragedy over the past three decades is nothing less than treason.

But then again, at some point the decision was made that the U.S. and its population would be discarded by history, the economic status of the nation reduced to a shadow of what it once was, but that its military machine would be used for the financial elite’s takeover of the world until it is replaced by that of some other nation. All indications are that the next country up to bat as military enforcer for the financiers is China.

There you have it. That, in my opinion, is the past, present, and future of this nation in a nutshell. Great evils have been done in the world in the last century, and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Except…. and that’s what each person caught up in these travesties must decide. What are you going to do about it?

In mulling over this question, it would be wise to recognize that the dominance of the financial elite has largely been exercised through their control of the international monetary system based on bank lending and government debt. Therefore it’s through the monetary system that change can and must be made.

The progressives are wrong to think the government should go deeper in debt to create more jobs. This will just create an even deeper hole of debt future generations will have to crawl out of.

Rather the key is monetary reform, whether at the local or national levels. People have lost control of their ability to earn a living. But change could be accomplished through sovereign control by people and nations of the monetary means of exchange.

This control has been stolen. It is time to take it back. One way would be for the federal government to make a relief payment to each adult of $1,000 a month until the crisis lifted. This money could be earmarked for goods and services produced within the U.S. and used to capitalize a new series of community development banks. I have called this the “Cook Plan.”

The plan could be funded through direct payment from a Treasury relief account without new taxes or government borrowing. The payments would be balanced on the credit side by GDP growth or be used by individuals to pay off debt. It would be direct government spending as was done with Greenbacks before and after the Civil War without significant inflation.

Another method increasingly being used within the U.S. today is local and regional credit clearing exchanges and the use of local currencies or “scrip.” Use of such currencies could be enhanced by legislation at the state and federal levels allowing these currencies to be used for payment of taxes and government fees as well as payment of mortgages and other forms of bank debt. The credit clearing exchanges could be organized as private non-profit regional currency co-operatives similar to credit unions.

These would be immediate emergency measures. In the longer run, sovereign control of money and credit must be returned to the public commons and treated as public utilities. This does not mean exclusive government control to replace bank control. As stated previously, it would be done in partnership between government and private trade exchanges. Nor does it mean government takeover of business, industry, or the banking system, though all should be regulated for the common good and fairly taxed.

This program would lead to a new monetary paradigm where money and credit would be available by, as, when, and where needed, to facilitate trade between and among legitimate producers of goods and services. In this way trade and commerce will come to serve human freedom, not diminish it as is done with today’s dysfunctional partnership between big government trillions of dollars in debt and big finance with the entire world in hock.

Such a change would be a true populist revolution.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:56 PM
Response to Original message
19. More Mike Whitney
I don't know who he is, but Mike Whitney rocks. He's got analysis that pays off promptly.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Lining Up for the Wall Street Gravy Train By Mike Whitney
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24295.htm

British economist John Maynard Keynes, believed in capitalism, but he was also sharply critical of its structural flaws. He summed it up succinctly like this:

"Our analysis shows... that long-run development is not inherent in the capitalist economy. Thus, specific 'development factors' are required to sustain a long-run upward movement."

What Keynes was alluding to is the fact that mature capitalist economies tend towards stagnation. What happens, is that the rate of return on investment begins to dwindle as overcapacity builds. That causes declining profits which lead to belt-tightening, rising unemployment and falling demand. As investment drops off further, growth slows correspondingly and the economy dips into a protracted slump. This corrosive stagnation is the challenge that all advanced capitalist economies face. The solution--as Keynes notes--lies in "specific development factors", which in today's terms means "financial innovations".

Financial innovation, like derivatives contracts and securitization, have created vast new opportunities for investment and profitmaking. This complex netherworld of highly-leveraged debt-instruments and off-balance sheet operations, constitutes a shadow economy where the process of capital accumulation persists despite pervasive inertia in the underlying economy. This is why the Fed and the Treasury have been doing their best to stitch the system back together without changing its basic structure. The same is true of Congress, which has gone to great lengths to preserve the profit-generating instruments which brought the global financial system to the brink of disaster. This is from the Wall Street Journal:

"Lobbying by Wall Street has blunted efforts to step up regulation on derivatives trading by carving out exceptions or leaving the status quo in place. Derivatives took blame for some of the worst debacles of the financial crisis. But a year after regulators and critics began calling for an overhaul in the way they are traded, some efforts have been shelved and others have been watered down.

The two main issues concerning regulators were trading and clearing of swaps, which allow investors to bet on or hedge movements in currencies, interest rates and many other things. Swaps generally trade privately, leaving competitors and regulators in the dark about the scope of their risks. In November 2008, the chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee proposed forcing all derivatives trading onto exchanges, where their prices could be publicly disclosed and margin requirements imposed to insure that participants could make good on their market bets.

But a financial-overhaul bill passed by the House of Representatives on Dec. 11 watered down or eliminated these requirements. The measure still allows for voice brokering and allows dealers to use alternatives to public exchanges." ("How Overhauling Derivatives Died" Randall Smith and Sarah Lynch, WSJ)

"Voice brokering" is Wall Street parlance for making a deal over the phone. It makes a joke out of the anemic regulations passed into law by congressmen who are essentially agents of Wall Street.

The bottom line is that financial institutions will not be forced to trade trillions of dollars of derivatives on public exchanges where margin requirements would protect taxpayers against potential losses. Instead, Congress has given Wall Street the green light to continue selling products that are insufficiently capitalized so they can keep raking in gigantic profits. That means it's only a matter of time before another one of the financial giants keels over from its bad bets. It will be AIG all over again.

But derivatives are just part of the problem. The real issue is a financial model that doesn't really work and offers no tangible benefit to society. In its present form, the system--with its exotic OTC markets, its off-book SIVs and SPEs, and its opaque Dark Pools and High Frequency Trading-- is more snake oil than high finance. It does not "efficiently allocate capital to productive activity" as advertised, but--more often than not--diverts it away from production altogether into paper claims on all manner of financial exotica. So called "innovations" have had less to do with increasing the overall vitality of the economy or improving living standards than they do with circumventing regulations to enhance earnings by maximizing leverage. Deregulation has utterly transformed the system; creating a financial Frankenstein that hides its activities off public exchanges, that transfers the risk of losses onto the taxpayer, and that requires explicit government guarantees just to attract investment. It's a mug's game where only a small group of high-stakes speculators come up winners.

The same is true of the Fed's emergency lending programs. They're just another swindle wrapped in fancy public relations ribbon. Ostensibly, the facilities are supposed to provide cheap capital in exchange for dodgy collateral. But that's not a loan; it's a subsidy, and it helps to obscure the true, market price of the assets. As systemic regulator, the Fed has every right to provide liquidity during times of market stress or turbulence. But it does not have the right to help financial institutions conceal their losses by paying exorbitant prices for downgraded junk bonds. That's picking winners and losers, which is far beyond the Fed's mandate.

Quantitative easing (QE) is another Fed boondoggle. The program has been hyped as a way to get the banks to increase lending to businesses and consumers by creating over $1 trillion of excess bank reserves. But instead of increasing lending, QE does the exact opposite; it creates generous incentives for not lending. The banks who qualify have been taking the Fed's zero-rate reserves and exchanging them for safe, 10-year Treasury bonds which yield 3.5%. What a deal! Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has promised to maintain this policy for "an extended period" which means the banks will continue to reap the benefits of this stealth bailout for the foreseeable future.

This is the real reason the banks aren't lending, because the Fed is paying them not to. It's not a matter of creditworthy applicants. It's a matter of hopelessly mangled monetary policy. The ongoing credit contraction can be blamed on one man alone; Ben Bernanke.

Even though QE is mainly a backdoor way to recapitalize the banks; some lending has continued, although not to consumers and businesses. So where has the money gone? Here's part of the answer from the Wall Street Journal:

"Former Salvadoran finance minister Manuel Hinds points out in the latest issue of International Finance that banks have indeed been shirking on their day job of transforming increased deposits into increased private-sector credit. But they haven't quit entirely. In fact, they've funneled significant new funds into nonbank financial institutions—which have not lent them on. What's happening is that U.S. banks have been behaving exactly like developing country banks during earlier crises, such as Indonesian banks in the late 1990s—raising lending to their worst borrowers to keep them alive, lest the banks themselves collapse from their borrowers' defaults.


For U.S. banks, these zombie borrowers are their affiliated financial entities set up to manage so-called off-balance-sheet activities—such as the famous SIVs (structured investment vehicles) created by Citigroup and others during the boom. Thus, the massive fiscal and monetary bailouts of the banks have served to worsen the credit misallocation that led to the general economic collapse in 2008." ("Prepare for a Keynesian Hangover", Ben Steill, Wall Street Journal)

So the banks are not only taking depositors money and using it in high-risk derivatives transactions and currency "carry trades", they're also propping up the long daisy-chain of insolvent creditors whose default could domino Lehman-like through the entire financial system. Funny how the media skips little tidbits like this when they give their rosy evening roundup.

And then there's this; on Christmas Eve, the Treasury Dept announced that it would lift existing caps on the mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two GSE's will no longer be limited to a ceiling of $200 billion in losses each. Although, the Treasury's action looks like it was designed to support the housing market, the real beneficiaries are the banks whose balance sheets are coming under greater pressure from the relentless uptick in foreclosures. It is widely believed that Treasury is laying the groundwork for a major revision of the Obama's mortgage modification program which has, so far, been a dismal failure. If the critics are right, the administration is planning to slash the principle on millions of mortgages sometime in 2010, thus shifting the sizable losses onto the US taxpayer. Otherwise, the banks will face potential losses on another 4 million foreclosures in the next year alone. (according to Credit Suisse)

Economist Dean Baker says that the Treasury's surprise announcement is an indication that Fannie and Freddie may have paid too much for the mortgage-backed securities they bought back in 2008 when the GSE's were used as a dumping ground for distressed bank assets. Here's Baker:

"This would mean that they were paying too much for mortgages and mortgage-backed securities bought from banks after the financial meltdown was already in full swing. This was the original purpose of the TARP program. Of course, TARP came with at least some restrictions and disclosure requirements. If Fannie and Freddie are overpaying for mortgages, then there are no conditions whatsoever put on the banks that get the money." (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Just a four Letter Word, Dean Baker, Huffington Post)

The Treasury's action is tantamount to another stealth bailout by industry reps working within the Obama administration. All policymaking seems to revolve around two fundamental tenets: Increase the profit potential for the big Wall Street banks, and crimp the flow of credit to the real economy to increase privatization, crush the labor movement, and reduce the population to third world poverty. That's Neoliberalism in a nutshell and, apparently, Obama's economic dogma. In fact, as economist L. Randall Wray points out, Obama's new health care bill is just more of the same; another ginormous handout to Wall Street disguised as public policy. Here's Wray:

"There is a huge untapped market of some 50 million people who are not paying insurance premiums—and the number grows every year because employers drop coverage and people can’t afford premiums. Solution? Health insurance “reform” that requires everyone to turn over their pay to Wall Street. Can’t afford the premiums? That is OK—Uncle Sam will kick in a few hundred billion to help out the insurers. Of course, do not expect more health care or better health outcomes because that has nothing to do with “reform” … Wall Street’s insurers… see a missed opportunity. They’ll collect the extra premiums and deny the claims. This is just another bailout of the financial system, because the tens of trillions of dollars already committed are not nearly enough."(Healthcare Diversions Part 3: The Financialization of Health and Everything Else in the Universe" L. Randall Wray)

It's no wonder that the Obama administration's appeal to China to "expand its domestic market" focuses exclusively on health care and retirement programs. Wall Street is just lining up for the next gravy train.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Is the Fed Juicing the Stock Market? By Mike Whitney
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24311.htm

Is the Fed manipulating the stock market? TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman seems to think so, and he makes a strong case for his theory in an article at zerohedge.com.

Biderman focuses his attention on the mystery surrounding the stock market's 9-month rally and asks, "Where is the money coming from?" After all, the market cap has increased by more than $6 trillion since March 9. That amount of money should be fairly easy to trace; right?

Wrong.

Biderman: "The most positive economic development in 2009 was the stock market rally. (But) We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast. For the most part, the money did not from the traditional players that provided money in the past."

Huh? So, this vast infusion of liquidity--which helped the banks to avoid painful deleveraging--did not come from the usual suspects?

That's right. According to Biderman, the money did not come from (a) companies ("which were a huge net seller") (b) retail investor funds, (c) retail investors, (d) foreign investors, or (e) pension funds.

What about the hedge funds?

Biderman: "We have no way to track in real time what hedge funds do, and they may well have shifted some assets into U.S. equities. But we doubt their buying power was enormous because they posted an outflow of $12 billion from April through November."

Okay; so we're back to Square One. Where did the money come from?

Biderman again: "As far as we know, it is not illegal for the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury to buy S&P 500 futures. Moreover, several officials have suggested the government should support stock prices. For example, former Fed board member Robert Heller opined in the Wall Street Journal in 1989, “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.” In a Financial Times article in 2002, an unidentified Fed official was quoted as acknowledging that policymakers had considered buying U.S. equities directly, not just futures. The official mentioned that the Fed could “theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system.”

Biderman is referring to the Plunge Protection Team. Here's a clip from an article I wrote in 2007 which helps to clarify the PPT's origins:

"The Working Group on Financial Markets, also know as the Plunge Protection Team, was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown of October 1987. Its members include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Recently, (2007) the team has been put on high alert because of increased market volatility and, what Hank Paulson calls, the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives....

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the UK Telegraph notes, "Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson has called for the PPT to meet with greater frequency and set up a command centre at the US Treasury that will track global markets and serve as an operations base in the next crisis. The top brass will meet every six weeks, combining the heads of Treasury, Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and key exchanges."

This suggests that the PPT could, in fact, be the driving-force behind the ongoing stock market rally.

Biderman: "This type of intervention could explain some of the unusual market action in recent months, with stock prices grinding higher on low volume even as companies sold huge amounts of new shares and retail investors stayed on the sidelines. For example, Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge has pointed out that virtually all of the market’s upside since mid-September has come from after-hours S&P 500 futures activity."

True. The market has been behaving erratically for some time now. Could it be the "invisible hand" of Fed chair Ben Bernanke nudging equities ever-higher?

Consider the comments of former Clinton advisor George Stephanopoulos who verified the existence of the PPT in an appearance on Good Morning America on Sept 17, 2000. He said:

"What I wanted to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets . . . perhaps the most important the Fed in 1989 created what is called the Plunge Protection Team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges and they have been meeting informally so far, and they have a kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem. They have in the past acted more formally . . . I don't know if you remember but in 1998, there was a crisis called the Long term Capital Crisis. It was a major currency trader and there was a global currency crisis. And they, with the guidance of the Fed, all of the banks got together when it started to collapse and propped up the currency markets. And, they have plans in place to consider that if the markets start to fall."

If there was ever a time that warranted government intervention, it was right after Lehman Bros blew up and global markets went into freefall. The whole system was teetering and about to collapse. It's likely that the Fed recognized the danger and made a last-ditch effort to avoid another Great Depression. That means that Bernanke probably used his surrogates at the banks and brokerages to strategically purchase futures and equities that had the best chance of reversing the downward trend. What else could he do---sit on his hands and wait for Armageddon?

The problem is, no steps have been taken to prevent a similar catastrophe from occurring in the future. The same lethal debt-instruments that triggered the crisis are in play today; over $1 trillion in toxic assets still remain on the banks balance sheets, and nothing has been done to reduce financial sector debt. In fact, according to the Fed, total debt for the financial sector was $16.5 trillion in the second quarter 2009, the same as it was a year earlier. Nothing has changed.

Financial institutions are re-levering and taking on greater risks knowing that the government will bail them out if they get into trouble. At the same time, the Fed's lending programs have kept markets from fully-correcting by keeping asset prices artificially high. This has helped the banks to conceal their losses and appear healthier than they really are. The question is; how long can the charade go on before something gives?

Policymakers seem to believe that blanket government guarantees and stock market manipulation are enough to forestall another disaster. But critics think that a day of reckoning is fast approaching.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 09:58 PM
Response to Original message
39. What is January 8, without Elvis!

To ELVIS Happy 75Th Birthday and here are some cockatoos dancing to celebrate your day!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61zthjM2IfE



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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
44.  Chinese demand drives regional recovery
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22c077fe-fb43-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html

Asian exports to China soared at the end of last year according to a slew of data released on Thursday, suggesting that Chinese demand is emerging as a stronger than expected engine of economic recovery in the region.

The biggest jump came in South Korea, which said December exports to China jumped 94 per cent compared with the same month a year ago. Taiwan reported a 91.2 per cent jump in the value of shipments for December, and Malaysia said exports jumped 52.9 per cent in November from a year earlier.

The strong demand from China compared with generally falling exports to the US and Japan, although shipments to the European Union were generally higher. Malaysia said exports to the US fell by 13 per cent, and to Japan by nearly 30 per cent.

Overall export performance was more mixed, with South Korea reporting a rise of 33.67 per cent and Taiwan up 46.9 per cent while Malaysia was down 3.3 per cent.

Australia said it suffered a 27.5 per cent drop in exports in November from the same period a year earlier, and New Zealand said exports in the same month were down by 16.7 per cent.

However, economists said it was becoming clear that China’s strong economic growth in 2009 had generated much stronger consumer demand for Asian products than forecast.

Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, said the size of the spike in exports to China in Thursday’s data was in part a reflection of the size of the falls in exports as the global financial crisis developed. However, Mr Neumann said there was “plenty of evidence” that Chinese demand for consumer products such as flat television screens had replaced a large part of the falling demand in North America and elsewhere.

“Going into this crisis we never thought that, if China recovered, it would suck in imports from other Asian countries on a scale that could play a serious role in generating regional economic recovery, but that seems to be what is happening,” he said.

The export figures follow data earlier this week showing that industrial production around the region is recovering fast, with both China and India seeing significant improvements in manufacturing sentiment....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 10:17 PM
Response to Original message
46. We'll Pick It Up Here Tomorrow
I shoveled this morning, got to rest up.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-08-10 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
47. No sun rising on Horizon Bank
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2010/pr10004.html
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $539.1 million. Washington Federal Savings and Loan Association's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to all alternatives. Horizon Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Washington. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Venture Bank, Lacey, on September 11, 2009.

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/washington/bellingham/horizon-bank/
Total troubled assets Sept. 30, 2009 $128,406,000

assets and deposits are near identical at the two sites listed above......something about the troubled assets figure and the expected loss to the DIF seems to be a little odd. :shrug: Anyone got a good book recipe?

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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:14 AM
Response to Original message
48. Kick
And good morning everyone. I hope everyone is managing to stay warm.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
50. Simon Johnson predicts financial catastrophe

John Xenakis blog...
1/7/10 Simon Johnson predicts financial catastrophe

Simon Johnson, MIT School of Management professor, and Peterson Institute Senior fellow, predicts financial catastrophe on CNBC:

video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLKuXwisOrc

Johnson talks about a financial "catastrophe" in the offing. He makes the following very interesting argument: The last crisis (beginning in 2007) was caused by banks that were "too big to fail" taking huge risks with other people's money.

Today, the biggest banks are even bigger, and are even more reckless than ever in taking risks. They can do this because they know that they're "too big to fail," and so they know that they can take any gamble they want: if they succeed, they'll make a lot of money, and if they fail, the government will bail them out.

Therefore, if the last crisis was caused by banks "too big to fail," then there must be an even worse crisis coming soon.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this argument makes sense. The Great Depression of the 1930s made the survivors extremely risk-averse. When those survivors disappeared (retired or died) in the 1990s, they were replaced by Boomers and Gen-Xers who abused credit, causing the dot-com bubble and the credit/real estate bubble. The current crisis will not end until the new generations of Boomers, Gen-Xers and Millennials learn their lessons, and become extremely risk-averse again. The fact that they haven't yet learned that lesson is proof that the worst is yet to come. It's like an alcoholic who doesn't stop drinking until he really hits bottom.

Johnson points out the enormous hubris of these bankers. Goldman Sachs, for example, was bailed out by the government, but is just about to pay $20 billion (with a "b") in bonuses. It's amazing.

Another interesting thing about the above video is that the CNBC anchors don't believe a word that Johnson is saying. They haven't learned their lessons either.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e100109#e100109

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
51. Yaba Daba Dubai!
Still more sirocco and dust out of the would-be garden spot in the Middle East.

Dubai’s DP World seeks London listing

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50afa262-fab6-11de-a532-00144feab49a.html

DP World, the world’s fourth-largest container terminal operator, is seeking a stock listing in London after two years of poor share price performance in its home market of Dubai. (AREN'T THESE THE DISCOURAGED SUITORS FOR AMERICA'S PORTS?)

The plan by the subsidiary of Dubai World, the troubled government-owned conglomerate, is the latest blow to financial markets in the emirate, which were badly hit by last month’s debt crisis.

The decision will bring back to the London market most of the former businesses of P&O, the container ports and ferries operator that DP World took over for £3.92bn ($6.26bn) in March 2006.

Dubai World floated 20 per cent of DP World on the Dubai International Financial Exchange – now Nasdaq Dubai – in November 2007 at $1.30 a share, which valued the company at $21.6bn.

At the time, the deal was the Middle East’s largest-ever initial public offering.

However, although the shares saw an initial spike, they have since underperformed and closed on Wednesday at $0.42, valuing the company at $6.98bn.

Senior executives have made no secret of their frustration with the poor performance, given DP World’s continuing strong profitability.

The company announced pre-tax profits of $216m on revenues of $1.38bn for the first-half of 2009, in spite of sharp falls in worldwide container volumes.

The step is likely to be seen as a sign of investors’ lack of confidence in Nasdaq Dubai, where trading volumes have remained slim, although the company said it remained committed to its shareholders in the region...

DP World will seek a premium listing – a new category, announced late last year, for companies meeting the highest reporting standards – after it announces its full-year results in March. The company has not yet decided whether to issue new shares ahead of the London listing, saying that would depend on market conditions.

The Dubai exchange’s listing rules are modelled on London’s, making it far easier for the company to list in London than elsewhere.

{B]Dubai Metro plans hit by contract row

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f54114a-fbaa-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

The completion of Dubai’s newly opened Metro faces delays as the Japanese-led consortium building the flagship project slows work in a dispute over contract payments worth about $3bn.

The Obayashi Corporation, one of the five main contractors, said work on the remaining unopened stations would be slowed as a negotiating manoeuvre in payment talks with the government’s transport authority.

Nikkei, another contractor, had said that construction could be halted. The consortium also includes Mitsubishi Heavy Industries , Mitsubishi Corp, Kajima Corp and Turkish company Yapi Merkezi.

However, the Roads & Transport Authority said the project remained on track, reaffirming its commitment to meeting contractual payments.

Dubai partly opened the Arab Gulf’s first urban light-rail system in September and unveiled the station serving the world’s tallest tower, Burj Khalifa, this week. When opened, the cost of the project had more than doubled to $7.6bn since construction started in 2005.

People familiar with the matter said the sides had been locked in arbitration talks over the additional payments. “A substantial amount of the value of the additional work is in dispute,” said one.

A third of the planned 29 stations are open, with the remainder scheduled to open from February.

The bursting of Dubai’s property bubble and debt woes have put pressure on the government’s ability to meet outgoings.

The government has already diverted some of the $25bn bail-out received from Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, to fund vital infrastructure projects, including the Metro.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #51
57. Dubai's Arabtec says Aabar to acquire 70 percent stake
Somebody's not running out of money....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100109/bs_nm/us_arabtec_aabar

Dubai-based Arabtec (ARTC.DU) confirmed on Saturday that Abu Dhabi's Aabar Investments (AABAR.AD) is looking to finalize a deal on January 13 to acquire a 70 percent stake in the company for $1.7 billion.

Aabar said on Friday it intended to buy the stake through convertible bonds, which would provide both cash and potential new contracts for the Dubai construction giant.

"Aabar Investments PJSC and Dubai's Arabtec Holdings PJSC have agreed for Aabar to acquire 70 percent of the shares in Arabtec by way of a convertible mandatory bond...," Arabtec said in an emailed statement.

Formal discussions between the firms began January 4, the company said. Finalizing the deal depends on completing legal diligence by January 13, the approval of Arabtec's shareholders and obtaining regulatory approvals, it added.

Arabtec said the acquisition will "further consolidate" its position in the market.

Credit Suisse, which has a target price of 3.33 dirhams for shares of Arabtec, said in a note that Aabar would give a welcome cash injection to Arabtec through the deal, and could help provide new contracts for it in Abu Dhabi.

Aabar, the non-energy investment arm of Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund IPIC, is German carmaker Daimler's (DAIGn.DE) largest shareholder.

There had been market rumors since late December regarding a possible investment by Aabar in Arabtec but both firms had denied there had been any deal.

Arabtec -- which has ventured into new markets such as Russia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the global downturn hit business at home in Dubai -- has said it will turn its main focus to other locations including Abu Dhabi where it won contracts last year.

The real estate and construction focus in the United Arab Emirates has been shifting to Abu Dhabi from Dubai and the latter emirate's debt crisis may intensify the move...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 11:43 AM
Response to Original message
52. Pressure builds on Iceland
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c5cb4296-fbb4-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

Iceland faces a battle to maintain united Nordic support for its economic recovery plans after Finland warned crucial financial aid could be held up by the dispute over €3.9bn of lost bank deposits owed to Britain and the Netherlands.

Finland’s admission that planned loans from Nordic countries to Iceland were likely to be delayed was the first concrete sign of international pressure after the Icelandic president this week blocked legislation to reimburse the UK and Dutch governments.

Steingrimur Sigfusson, Iceland’s finance minister, flew to Oslo on Thursday night to meet his Norwegian counterpart and is due in Copenhagen on Friday for talks as Reykjavik scrambles to shore up Nordic support for its crisis-hit economy.

Nordic countries could determine the fate of its recovery plans because they are the biggest contributors to the rescue programme agreed with the International Monetary Fund after the Icelandic banking sector collapsed in 2008.

Finland’s finance ministry said the next round of loans from the €1.8bn ($2.5bn, £1.6bn) pledged by Nordic countries was likely to be put on hold while consultations took place over the standoff. Norway and Denmark said they were watching the situation closely. Sweden said the matter needed to be considered with the IMF board.

Nordic countries face a conflict between their regional loyalty to Iceland and their strong political and economic ties to the UK and the Netherlands, which are demanding reimbursement of money lost by British and Dutch savers in the failed Icesave online bank.

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the president, on Tuesday refused to sign legislation approving repayment, triggering a referendum on the issue that is likely to take place next month.

He cited public opposition to the deal as justification for his decision after more than a quarter of the electorate signed a petition against it. But an opinion poll on Wednesday indicated Icelanders may be having second thoughts. A Gallup survey found that 53 per cent of people would support the bill in a referendum, in which a simple majority is required for it to pass, marking a turnround from the 70 per cent opposition found in previous polls.

Britain and the Netherlands have warned that Iceland risks isolation if it rejects the deal, hinting that they would veto its bid to join the European Union and block IMF loans. Resolution of the issue is a condition of the Nordic loans, which are crucial to the broader IMF programme.

Iceland received the first €300m loan from its Nordic partners last month. A similar amount was expected to follow the next IMF review, scheduled for this month. That review is now likely to be delayed.

Fitch, the credit rating agency, downgraded Iceland’s main sovereign rating to “junk” status in response to the president’s decision and Standard & Poor’s said it could follow suit. Moody’s said its financial position was strong enough to cope with a delay of “weeks or even months” to international loans.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEMETER'S EDITORIAL RANT: WHAT PROFITETH THE ICELANDERS IF THEY GAIN THE COMMON MARKET, AND LOSE THEIR ECONOMY?

AND TRUST A FINN TO STAB YOU IN THE BACK (I SPEAK FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE).

HANG TOUGH, ICELAND. THE EU AND THE IMF ARE NOT WORTH IT. THESE ARE THE TIMES THAT TRY MEN'S SOULS, AND FAR TOO MANY ARE BEING FOUND LACKING. AS A POPULATION SELF-SELECTED FOR SURVIVAL, ICELANDERS CAN SURVIEV, BECAUE THEY HAVE THE WILL. I'D LAY ODDS THAT YOU WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF CUTTING ALL TIES TO FOREIGN PRINCES AND CORPORATIONS, DOING A CHAVEZ, AND PUTTING THE GLOBAL WOLF OUTSIDE THE PALE.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
54. Corruption probe into sale of Ghana oil block
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/28ed19fc-fbca-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html

US and Ghanaian authorities are investigating corruption allegations involving a Texas oil company and the local partner that helped it secure control of the Ghanaian oil block that yielded one of Africa’s biggest recent discoveries.

The case risks complicating efforts by Texas company Kosmos to sell its stake in the Jubilee oil field to ExxonMobil in a deal valued at $4bn. Kosmos, which denies any wrongdoing, is owned by US private equity groups Blackstone and Warburg Pincus.

According to people close to the investigation, Ghana is preparing to file criminal charges against EO, a company set up by two political allies of John Kufuor, former president, whose party lost tense elections a year ago. The US justice department is also understood to be probing the relationship between EO and Kosmos, although the department on Thursday declined to confirm or deny this.

Duke Amaniampong, a California-based lawyer working for the Ghanaian investigation told the Financial Times that Ghana’s attorney-general had accumulated “enough evidence of criminal culpability to bring charges against the EO group and its directors”.

The charges would include “causing a financial loss to the state, money laundering and making false declarations to public agencies”, said a person in the attorney-general’s office.

Ghanaian officials suspect that EO used its access to top officials in the former government to gain a hold on the country’s most promising offshore oil block and win more favourable terms both for itself and Kosmos.

EO’s directors declined to answer questions but said in a statement that they had played an important role in opening Ghana’s oil industry, and had done so lawfully and without using “improper influence”.

Kosmos said allegations of wrongdoing against it were “untrue and unsubstantiated”.

Ghana, Kosmos said, now wants to secure a share of the profits by forcing Kosmos to sell itself at a knock-down price to GNPC, the state oil group, which could then sell it to the highest bidder. “Some factions in the country are clearly seeking to spread rumours and untruths in an attempt to undermine the company so that its assets can be below fair market value,” Kosmos said.

EO was set up by a Houston-based businessman, George Owusu, who was Kosmos’s representative in Accra and Kwame Bawuah Edusei, a doctor and supporter of Mr Kufuor who was later appointed as ambassador to Washington.

The group has a 3.5 per cent stake in the offshore oil block where Kosmos first found commercial quantities of oil in 2007. EO, whose stake could be worth more than $200m, initiated the deal which brought Kosmos into Ghana three years earlier.

In return, Kosmos met EO’s share of exploration and development costs, according to an agreement between the two companies obtained by the Financial Times.

According to a senior Ghanaian official, Kosmos’s financing of EO’s costs was “widely regarded in the industry as unusual” especially as the terms of Kosmos’s deal with the government and state oil group were “more favourable than from any other agreement”.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
55. History Lesson From Taiwan: Asia's Sellout Season by DailyReckoning.com
Edited on Sat Jan-09-10 12:48 PM by Demeter
http://dailyreckoning.com/asias-sellout-season/


In Taiwan...a society that, only a few generations ago, was largely agrarian-based...we wondered, "Could this be the new Asia? The Asia of the future?" Those who dream of a great global economic recovery certainly hope so. Now that the American consumer is all but tapped out, they look to Asian producers to fill the demand gap...few places we've visited in Asia more abundantly furnish the senses with the rich/poor, old/new dichotomies so prevalent around this region...

Ever since Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Chiang Kai-shek, the one-time friend and later arch nemesis of Chairman Mao Tse-Tung, fled to Taiwan (or Formosa, the Portuguese name meaning "beautiful") in 1949, the place has been a hotbed of political friction...the tiny South China Sea island was plunged into chaos and routine class purges... Naturally, not all locals welcomed Chiang's heavy-handed, authoritarian rule. There was plenty of bloodshed in the streets under Chiang's "White Terror" and masses of dispossessed citizens rebelled against his iron fist. But Chiang did have a few things going for him. When the KMT party arrived in Taiwan, they brought with them a huge portion of the mainland's gold and foreign currency reserves. Much of the intellectual and business elite also followed in order to avoid the communist crush of Mao's "Reds" back home. And, vitally and with the help of aid from the US, the KMT also instituted an import-substitution policy, whereby the country began to manufacture previously imported goods domestically. This policy was to prove an invaluable part of the small island's economic growth in subsequent years.

After Chiang, the increasingly capitalistic, export-driven Taiwan grew its foreign reserves exponentially. Today it has the fourth largest stash in the world, behind only China, Japan and Russia. (As a point of interest, the US comes in 21st on the rankings, right between Poland and Libya.)

It's not difficult to imagine a place like Taiwan, one of Asia's four "Tiger Economies" (alongside Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea), leading some kind of regional renaissance. But the plot here is just as much tragedy as it is comedy.

For one thing, a not-insignificant portion of the island's 23 million people still lives hand to mouth. Your editor buys his fresh fruit and vegetables from a local night market right next to his building, where vendors shuttle their produce in from farms in the surrounding mountains on the back of smoke-spluttering mopeds. These people work long, hard hours and are by no means equipped to pick up the conspicuously lagging consumption duties abandoned by their cash-strapped American cousins. The lines on their smiling faces run deep with the stresses and pains of the recent past and of a life spent laboring for little in return.

Not two stops away on the world's most advanced underground metro system, Taiwan's tallest building, Taipei 101 (the world's highest until the Burj Dubai opened earlier this month), towers as the centerpiece of the high-end retail area surrounding the City Hall. Streets there are lined with luxury items form Paris, Milan and Seoul. Vacationing shoppers gorge themselves on Hermès handbags and Prada pumps, the price tags of which would have been unimaginable here a few years ago.

To be sure, the island has come a long, long way over the past five or six decades. Where agriculture once made up more than one third of the GDP here, it now contributes less than 2%. The lion's share of economic activity today belongs to the booming information technology and biotech industries. Semiconductors sales are a source of national university pride and cutting edge companies like Acer (TSE: 2353), Asus (TSE: 2357) and HTC Corporation (TSE: 2498) churn out $300 laptops and smartphones by the ton, which they then pump into hungry foreign markets.

But it is important to remember, especially when considering export driven/reliant economies, that not all demand is created equal...
It is impossible to know exactly how much of the world's current demand is real and how much is simply manufactured by make-work governments looking to pad their GDP figures with public works programs and easy money handouts. We've written in this space before about how liquidity inflows from the West, coupled with loose monetary policies locally, have pushed property prices and stock markets in China to bubble-like valuations.

Dan Denning, our mate who heads up the Aussie chapter of The Daily Reckoning, spent the week there warning his readers of China's overly ambitious capital outlays.

"Now it would be presumptuous to say that all Chinese capital spending was somehow derivative of American consumer demand," observes Dan. "China has other trading partners and markets, although without America things might not be so flash. But it is without doubt true that Chinese capital spending is a direct consequence of the global credit bubble."

The faux demand plot is yet to fully reveal itself on the world economic stage, but it would be foolish to assume export dependent economies have not grown somewhat accustomed to bloated order books. Taiwan's generational gains are hard fought and the people here are among the most intelligent, driven individuals we've ever met. It is hard to ignore, however, that on both sides of the Pacific an over-consuming, publicly-funded "Chi-merican" fat lady may already be singing her swansong.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. 100 Years of Mismanagement By Bill Bonner
"We're now in a period of wealth destruction," says George Soros. "It is going to be very hard to preserve your wealth in these circumstances."

It is astonishing. But after the biggest financial crisis in the history of the planet, few people are concerned about wealth destruction; like James Cramer, they're just interested in "getting back to even."

http://dailyreckoning.com/100-years-of-mismanagement/

There must be some dark corner of Hell warming up for modern, mainstream economists. They helped bring on the worst bubble ever...with their theories of efficient markets and modern portfolio management. They failed to see it for what it was. Then, when trouble came, they made it worse.

But instead of atoning in a dank cell, these same economists strut onto the stage to congratulate themselves.

"The Greatest Depression that could so easily have happened in 2009 but did not is the tribute that the world owes to economics." Wrote Arvind Subramanian in The Financial Times.

We were lost from the get-go, trying to interpret the sentence. It is as tangled and puerile as the staggering conceit behind it. Then, Mr. Subramanian sets up the stage props:

"In 2008, as the global financial crisis unfolded, the reputation of economics as a discipline and economists as useful policy practitioners seemed to be irredeemably sunk. Queen Elizabeth captured the mood when she asked pointedly why no one (in particular economists) had spotted the crisis coming. And there is no doubt that, notwithstanding the few Cassandras who had correctly prophesied gloom and doom, the profession had failed colossally..."

He then brushes off the Queen's very sensible question:

"But crises will always happen, and even if there is a depressing periodicity to them as Professors Reinhart and Rogoff have catalogued, their timing, form and provenance will elude prognostication."

Of course, the record doesn't show that the crisis eluded prognostication; any dope could have seen it coming. But the prognosticators who had contributed so mightily to the crisis had blinded themselves with their own claptrap. Still, Mr. Subramanian figures that they "vindicated" the profession in the way they responded to the crisis.

"On monetary policy, Bernanke was true to the word he gave to Milton Friedman on the occasion of his 90th birthday: 'Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.' Bernanke, the pre-eminent student of the Great Depression, found conventional and some very unconventional ways of not doing 'it' again. At the peak of his interventions, the US Fed came to resemble the Soviet Gosbank, more a micro-allocator of credit than a steward of macroeconomic policy."

It probably wasn't the point he intended to make, but the Fed does resemble the Soviet era Gosbank - manipulating, meddling and micro- managing the economy towards destruction. Meanwhile, Congress is doing some Soviet style management too; it is now owner of the nation's largest automobile company and its largest insurance business: "They took their cue from the writings of the academic scribbler of yore - Lord Keynes - and provided massive public demand for goods and services where private demand had collapsed...."

We were still gasping for air when, on the 30th of December, columnist Martin Wolf called upon Keynes ghost again. He too shuddered to think how horrible things would have been if the financial authorities had not taken resolute action:

"We could not in such times, even take the survival of civilization itself for granted. Never before had I felt more strongly the force of John Maynard Keynes's toast 'to the economists - who are the trustees, not of civilization, but of the possibility of civilization.'"

Is there any doubt that Keynes was a scalawag? Civilization flourished for thousands of years before anyone made a living as an economist. Crises came and went. In the 19th century, for example, there were panics followed by depressions in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, and 1893. Not one of the depressions seemed worthy of the "great" modifier. Hundreds of banks failed. Civilization didn't seem to care. The rich and powerful took their lumps along with everyone else; most people enjoyed watching them go down. Business went on.

In 1913, on Christmas Eve, Congress passed the Federal Reserve Act, setting up America's central bank. Only then did economists get their hands on the economy's throat. The dollar was worth about the same thing it had been worth 100 years before. Now, almost a hundred years later, it is worth only 3 cents. And only 16 years after economists took their positions at the Federal Reserve came a depression worse than anything the nation had ever seen - at least, it was worst after government economists finished with it.

The Great Depression may have been an accident, but the debasement of the dollar certainly was not. It was a matter of policy. Economists, led by Keynes, had the idea that they could spur the economy forward by creating phantom demand - in the form of additional units of purchasing power. The gold standard stood in the way; it was abandoned like a bad neighborhood. First, temporarily, then partially, then, in 1971, completely. The first consumer credit boom came in the '20s...leading to the Great Depression. By the 1980s, 50 years later, Americans had lost their residual fear of debt. Consumer credit boomed again. Then it bubbled. Economists didn't understand what was going on. They rarely do. But they had created a hundred year flood of consumer debt. Now they congratulate themselves; households sink...but civilization floats.

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT FOR CURMUDGEONS LIKE BILL BONNER, I DO THINK MORE CRIMES HAVE BEEN COMMITTED IN KEYNES NAME THAN IN FOLLOWING HIS ACTUAL ADVICE. KEYNES WOULDN'T HAVE PUT UP WITH OBAMANOMICS. HE WAS AN FDR MAN.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 02:16 PM
Response to Reply #55
58. Business as Unusual By Joel Bowman (More Taiwan Notes)
http://dailyreckoning.com/business-as-unusual/

...Foreign investor capital is flooding back into this region as risk appetite grows again in the West. As we noted in a recent DR Weekend Edition:

“In the three quarters leading up to March of 2009, widespread economic meltdowns in the West saw some $262 billion vacuumed out of Asia’s red hot ‘tiger’ economies as beleaguered funds in The City, Wall Street and elsewhere repatriated capital to meet crushing margin calls closer to home. However, over the past six months, almost all of that cash ($241 billion) has found its way back to Asian shores.”...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
59. I've been waiting for the Announcement that Timmy's Going to Spend More Time with his family
Could it be that his family doesn't want him to spend more time with them?

Is Rahm taking this financial muckraking as a personal attack on him, and fighting to the death to keep poor Timmy employed, so that neither of them has to admit to a mistake? If so, why? Rahm can't be that fanatical, and he wasn't that deep into the whole AIG bailout, or was he?

Isn't it interesting that Obama seems totally oblivious to the issue, neither supporting nor cutting loose from ole Timmy? Not even a comment on the economy in general, except more pablum on jobs creation. Obama is one cool cat. One might even call it "detached".

The Gold Men sure hang together. Probably because once their solidarity is broken, they will assuredly all hang separately....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:00 PM
Response to Original message
60. (UK) Bankers escape bonus blow
Edited on Sat Jan-09-10 08:00 PM by Demeter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/caffc078-fc97-11de-bc51-00144feab49a.html

City bankers will suffer little or no impact from the bonus supertax imposed by the government last month, according to a Financial Times poll of leading investment banks.

Most banks, polled in an anonymised survey, said they would absorb all or part of the cost of the one-off 50 per cent tax by inflating their bonus pools, even at the risk of irritating the government and their own shareholders.

The results chime with intelligence garnered by headhunters. “The tax is going to be 90 per cent absorbed by the banks,” said one senior recruitment consultant with clients in the City.

In many cases that will mean banks doubling bonus pools, with the cost of the tax borne by shareholders. Dividends, already under pressure as regulators force banks to retain earnings to boost capital, are likely to be hit, bankers concede....

...The FT quizzed 12 banks – Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, RBS and UBS. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs did not respond.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #60
61. UK Treasury to cash in as bonus tax fails
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e29f1eac-fa46-11de-beed-00144feab49a.html

Alistair Darling’s attempt to stop banks making lavish bonus payments through the one-off 50 per cent “supertax” has failed, government officials admit, as many institutions plan to absorb the charge rather than reduce pay-outs.

The chancellor’s allies admit the tax has not changed the behaviour of big financial institutions, but take comfort in the fact that the Treasury is set for a windfall of hundreds of millions of pounds just months before the election as a result.

OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, TAKE NOTE!
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #60
70. Wow! They must be used to taking government's concerns with a pinch of salt. I'd make those banks
pay heavily for their insolence. (Apart from all the other ways I'd rip them apart). And guess what? The public purse would be the beneficiary, short term, medium term and long term.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #70
72. The Shareholders Are Getting Restless, Though
Now, why doesn't Al-Queda go after the Zombie Banks?
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #72
73. Because the people will beat them to it?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #73
74. I don't think so
Maybe 20% of the people will boycott the big banks, and maybe that will be enough, but...
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #74
75. It was just a quip.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:00 PM
Response to Reply #75
76. But We Really Need a Plan, a Solution
If DC is going to be captive, we have got to go around it, over it, and through it.
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #76
77. Orlov's take is pretty comical, though evidenty based on experience.
Just ignore the government! But it is a bewildering prospect all right.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #77
79. This Orlov?
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #79
81. The very same. A very dry sense of humour, as well as a fund of knowledge and insights.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:04 PM
Response to Original message
62. China’s progress provokes border envy in India
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/28211170-f875-11de-beb8-00144feab49a,s01=1.html

Indians living in border areas neighbouring China are beginning to envy fast-paced development brought by Beijing to the point of regretting being Indian, a senior member of India's ruling Congress party has warned...

HOW ABOUT A ONE-CHILD POLICY, THEN?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:06 PM
Response to Original message
63. Walmart aims to cut supply chain cost
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/891c7878-f895-11de-beb8-00144feab49a.html

Walmart is launching a drive this year to cut billions of dollars of costs from its supply chain by combining its store purchasing across national frontiers in a new stage in the globalisation of its business.

The effort is part of plans by the world’s largest retailer to increase the proportion of goods that it buys directly from manufacturers, rather than through third-party procurement companies or suppliers.

Eduardo Castro-Wright, the head of Walmart’s US stores, has said that the retailer sees the opportunity to consolidate global sourcing as “a major source of leverage for the company in years to come”.

With annual sales of more than $400bn, Walmart is famously tough in negotiating with its suppliers, exploiting the scale of its buying to gain discounts. It spends about $100bn on purchasing private label products such as its Faded Glory and George brand clothing, or its Great Value food and home products. But it acquires less than a fifth of these goods directly from the manufacturers, and has generally made its purchases on a country-by-country basis.

Mr Castro-Wright has estimated that shifting to direct purchasing could reduce costs by 5-15 per cent across the supply chain within five years – suggesting potential savings of $4bn-$12bn if the retailer were to meet its long-term goal of shifting to sourcing about 80 per cent of purchases directly.

As part of its effort to combine purchasing for the 15 countries in which it operates, Walmart has established four global merchandising centres for general goods and clothing, including a centre in Mexico City focused on emerging markets, and a centre in the UK to serve its George brand.

It is also shifting to direct purchasing of its fresh fruit and vegetables on a global basis, rather than working through supplier companies.

By the end of the year, the retailer plans to be directly purchasing sheets and towels for its stores in the US, Canada and Mexico, as well as its clothing for its Faded Glory line and for licensed Disney character clothing.

It also plans to expand initial combined purchasing of fresh fruit and vegetables for its stores in the US, Canada and Mexico, after an initial pilot test with apples that it says led to a 10 per cent reduction in purchasing costs.

Walmart says it expects to expand the programme through other categories, including seafood, frozen food and dry packaged groceries.

The direct purchasing of fresh produce, using procurement offices in producing countries such as South Africa, New Zealand, Brazil and Chile, builds on the established practices of the company’s Asda subsidiary in the UK, which in turn reflects the higher use of direct sourcing in Europe.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-09-10 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
65. Bail-out plan splits Kuwait
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7600162-fac2-11de-a532-00144feab49a.html

Kuwait’s government vowed to oppose a move by the parliament to force it to buy all $23.3bn of consumer loans in the country, write off the interest and reschedule the payments....

...Thanks to soaring oil prices and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Kuwait’s economy has surged for much of the past decade and spurred locals to go on a borrowing spree. While the government has run a series of healthy budget surpluses thanks to oil exports, the global recession has hurt many Kuwaitis, who borrowed to invest in wilting real estate and stock markets.

This has led to a populist clamour for the government to bail out its indebted citizens, as it did on at least two previous occasions – after the Souk al-Manakh stock market crash in 1982 and following the Iraqi occupation in 1991.

“It’s good news for Kuwaiti consumers, who are highly leveraged, and anything that helps them is good from a macro perspective.

“But as an economist it’s difficult to be positive on something like this,” said one Kuwait-based economist.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
78. You May Have Noticed NO HUMOR Section This Weekend
But maybe this item will give us something to laugh about:

Job growth could begin by spring, Obama adviser says

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-growth-could-begin-by-spring-obama-adviser-2010-01-10?siteid=YAHOOB

Even after a December report showed losses resumed after more jobs were added in November, the U.S. could see still job growth begin by spring, Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said Sunday.

We are still "part of this overall trend towards greatly moderating job losses," Romer said on ABC's "This week" with George Stephanopoulos. As an example, she said the U.S. was losing an average of 691,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2009 and that number slowed to an average of 69,000 jobs in the fourth quarter.

"It's still terrible," she said. "We absolutely have to go from losing any jobs at all to -- to adding them at a -- at a robust rate."

She said the country is on a path of "steady progress" and said that Gross Domestic Product, which grew in the third quarter, is expected to have grown "even more strongly" in the fourth quarter. She said most forecasts are pointing to "steady GDP growth over 2010."

"The real question is going to be, is it going to be strong enough to really add a lot of people back into employment?" she said. "That is what we are focusing on."

She said "the big variable" in the economic recovery and job growth is the private sector. "The government has been doing a lot to -- to hold up demand," she said. "The whole question is: when does the private sector get to see its legs again?"

Separately, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told David Gregory on NBC's "Meet the Press" that "economically the worst is over," as there's been a comeback in terms of job creation and home sales.

"The economy has bottomed out and has a chance to come back, the governor said, adding to hit the state with more taxes would be "the wrong thing" to do.

Still, he said "when it comes to the financial crisis that California is in, we aren't out of the woods yet. We still have a tough road ahead of us."

He also said the government should rethink its health care reform.

"There's no reason to beat up on California and ask for more money from California," he said.

..................................................


IT'S OFFICIAL, THESE PEOPLE ARE INSANE. THEY HAVE NEVER HAD A REAL JOB, A PRODUCTIVE, PRIVATE SECTOR JOB, IN THEIR LIVES. THEY STARE AT THE GRAPHS, LOOKING FOR TRENDS AND UPTICKS AND WAITING ON THE "MAGIC OF THE MARKETPLACE", BUT ARE COMPLETELY HANDS-OFF ON THE POLICIES THAT SENT THIS NATION INTO DECLINE, NOT TO MENTION THOSE THAT COULD GET US OUT OF THE TAILSPIN.

"Nothing more wonderfully concentrates a man's mind than the sure knowledge he is to be hanged in the morning." (Samuel Johnson)

OR FRSP!
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-10-10 03:20 PM
Response to Original message
80. The Early Morning BIG FREEZE took a lot out of me
I'm barely functioning even now. Don't expect me to be posting more this weekend. Have a safe, warm week, everybody!
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