Robert Reich: Jobs: The One Issue That Can Sink Democrats in November!

[LongTomH]

From Robert Reich on Alternet:

If unemployment is 10 percent or more next November, the Dems are in danger of losing the House and will almost certainly be short of the 60 votes they need in the Senate.

<snip>

Issue Number One -- the overriding concern that will determine more than anything how many seats the Democrats lose next fall -- is jobs. If unemployment is 10 percent or more next November, the Dems are in danger of losing the House and will almost certainly be short of the 60 votes they need in the Senate.

Reich lists 5 scenarios for the economy in the coming months, assigns a probability to each:

• Double-dip recession (10 percent likelihood).
  
• Stalled recovery (20 percent).
  
• Jobless recovery (40 percent).
  
• Solid recovery (20 percent).
  
• Strong recovery (10 percent).

The bad news on all of these is: Unemployment is likely to remain at 10 percent or higher for all scenarios. In a solid or strong recovery, employers will seek to maximize their profits by increasing outsourcing of jobs.

In other words, I think the chances of unemployment being 10 percent next November are overwhelmingly high. But although voters are acutely sensitive to the rate of unemployment, they're also influenced by the direction employment is heading. If it looks like jobs are coming back, they may forgive a high absolute level of unemployment -- even one as high as 10 percent. But if it looks like jobs aren't coming back, that we may be stuck with a high level of joblessness for years, voters will take out even more of their anxieties on Democrats next November.

The irony, of course, is that Republicans want to cut spending and reduce the deficit. If they had their way, we'd have double-digit unemployment as far as the eye can see.

[mdmc]

1. another issue - ft employees w. health benefits that cant afford medical treatment

could hurt us too.. not that Obama will lose..

[Little Star]

2. Jobs, Wars and Health Care are the big three I think. n/t

[Demeter]

6. Same as the Last Election

Same as the winning candidate ran on. We all know how that worked out for us...

[dkf]

3. Reich is saying they will protect profits by sending jobs overseas and some think

that stabilizing (not even decreasing) health care costs willl lead to higher wages.

It's a joke.

[LaPera]

4. And republicans WILL sabotage any kind of legislation & policies to stop more jobs

from happening....

Republicans don't give one fuck about workers, republicans only concern are power and profits for their corporations which they are ALL tied to....

Republicans are regressive and have NEVER done a single thing in their whole existence to help workers....Name one thing...of course you can't...even their tax cuts are alway designed for the rich & corporations --- But, the republicans will lie to the end saying the cuts are for the middle class. Complete bullshit!

Republicans despise the middle class, the educated, the caring, the progressives.

[Little Star]

7. From where I sit Democrats seem to despise

the middle class, the educated, the caring, the progressives. They have been giving us the middle finger since we gave them the majority and a mandate.

[wackywaggin]

8. How true!!

Republicans bow to big business and military spending and the Democrats bow to rich trial lawyers and Millionaire union bosses and CEO's of non-profits, who state their best intentions are looking out for us in the middle class. Well talk is cheap, the truth is no one is looking out for the middle class. Both sides are eating the corn and giving the middle class the husk. It all starts in your local communities. Go to council meetings and let your position be known during public input sessions, especially if you are laid off right now as you can do more research to fight for our rights, as I do in my community.

Heretic Wack :0)

[yourout]

5. The boat is already sinking from all the holes the Dems shot in it themselves.

If they want to win they need to aim at the Republicans instead of trying to blow their own toes off.

And by toes I mean....Union members, Progressives, and middle class Americans.

[bertman]

9. " . . .employers will seek to maximize their profits by increasing

outsourcing of jobs."

If that is true in this economic situation then this country has hit rock bottom. If by "employers" he is referring to the GIANT corporations, well, I can see that as a distinct possibility since those bastards have no allegiance whatsoever to the working class in this country. But, if he is referring to the average owner of a business--which I can't imagine he is--then I think he's wrong. Most business owners need good workers if their business is to prosper. Many owners are hanging on to their employees to the bitter end. I hope they will be in the majority.

If not, then we will have lost our souls as well as our nation.