Ukrainian Presidential Elections: Oranges and Clementines

[Kshasty]

In the Upcoming Ukrainian Presidential Elections a Second Round Seems Inevitable, But the Winner Is Hard to Predict

Democracy, in the crude form of healthy competition between rival candidates, is alive and well in Ukraine. Posters for the two main candidates Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich dominate the streets of Kiev against the backdrop of a myriad of posters for the other 16 hopefuls in Sunday’s presidential elections. Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko’s “Ukraine for the people” slogan defiantly maintains a toe-hold in the national consciousness, though opinion polls show that his re-election campaign is a forlorn hope.

It is illegal to publish opinion polls less than 15 days before an election in Ukraine, and no new poll data has been published here since January 1. But a poll by the state-owned Russian pollster VTsIOM conducted between January 3 and 10 shows little change in the two weeks since New Year. Yanukovich continues to lead the field with 30.5 percent, with Tymoshenko trailing on at 13.9 percent.

But predicting elections in Ukraine is a “fool’s errand,” as one Kiev-based election watcher put it, because none of the candidates is likely to win 50 percent of the vote, the minimum required to avoid a second round. The vote on January 17 will determine which two candidates the country will have to choose between. And because of the lack of a party structure and the dependency of the candidate’s appeal on personality rather than policies, it is next to impossible to tell who voters will root for if their preferred candidate does not make it through the final hurdle.

But not all Ukrainian voters are convinced that it matters. “I think Tymoshenko will win. It will go to a second round and there will be a fight between Tymoshenko and Yanukovich,” said Yuri, a student in Kiev. “But the vote will be completely fixed.”

Even the first round is not entirely predictable. Although it is a commonly-held belief that Tymoshenko and Yanukovich will make it to the faceoff, VTsIOM’s poll found the former Economics Minister and former Yanukovich Campaign Manager Sergei Tigipko half of a percentage point ahead of Tymoshenko.

Whoever wins the second round, journalists – and the contenders themselves – will be asking the following questions: can the weaker contender close the gap with Yanukovich and will the loser of the faceoff challenge the result?

The latter question should probably be amended – given the ferocity of the competition, the question is more about how far the discontented loser will be prepared to go. Could a disappointed Tymoshenko call her supporters onto the streets? And could such a tactic repeat the success of the Orange Revolution of five years ago?

She might try it, but it probably wouldn’t work. As prime minister, Tymoshenko’s standing is damaged by her association with the incumbent government. Some 38 percent of VTsIOM’s respondents said they would not vote for her under any circumstances. That will benefit Yanukovich at the polls, but it also restricts Tymoshenko’s ability to challenge the final vote on the street rather than in the courtroom.

And Russia? “The presidential election is a Ukrainian affair, for the Ukrainian people, and we will respect their decision,” said Vsevolod Loskutov, Russia’s acting ambassador to Ukraine. “It’s what we said in 2004, and it is what we are saying today.”

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100115/157556646.html