By Brian Whitaker, The Guardian/UK
Yemen, as some of us have been warning for months, is in grave danger of becoming a failed state. To save it from the fate of Somalia on the other side of the Red Sea, Yemen desperately needs sustained international help.
Getting governments to take the problem seriously, though, was a different matter until Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab set his underpants on fire aboard Flight 253 last month. Suddenly, Yemen was on the map, al-Qaida hysteria swept through the American media and Gordon Brown summoned an international conference for the end of this month.
"Yemen is a much bigger problem than anyone ever believed before Christmas Day," Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North (of Iran-Contra infamy) informed readers of his Fox News column last week. "We now know that there are in fact many more al-Qaida-trained terrorists in Yemen preparing for attacks on Americans."
All this must be music to the ears of Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose position prior to 25 December had been looking increasingly precarious. But now deliverance may be at hand – thanks to al-Qaida and the likes of Ollie North.
There was further encouragement for the Yemeni president from an article in the Wall Street Journal. "Mr Salah <sic> is an unpalatable partner," it said. "But he is the only partner we have in Yemen." The article went on to suggest that Saleh should be supported, not only in combating al-Qaida, but also rewarded with American support for his pointless war with the Houthi rebels.
For a wily character like Saleh (and you don't rule a country like Yemen for 32 years without being extremely wily) this is exactly the wrong message to send. He now knows two things. First, that the international community's main reason for taking an interest in Yemen – and perhaps the only reason – is its fear of al-Qaida and, second, that if he is seen to be putting up a fight against al-Qaida the aid money will come rolling in.
But there's a snag here. An unscrupulous psychiatrist who charges patients for therapy by the hour can make more money by prolonging their treatment, and it's much the same with Saleh and al-Qaida. The longer it takes to defeat al-Qaida, the better the aid prospects.
As Marc Lynch put it recently in his Foreign Policy blog, "If you like working with Hamid Karzai, you're going to love Ali Abdullah Saleh."
More:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/19/yemen-president-al-qaida-casualties