A second round is unavoidable, but Viktor Yanukovych has a 10% lead over his main opponent Yulia Tymoshenko. Viktor Yushchenko set a world record for the most "non-reelected" acting president, garnering only a little over 5% of the vote. One should know how to "bow out gracefully."
Another one of Yanukovych's achievements in this election is that in addition to being the core candidate of the eastern Ukrainian electorate, he turned out to be the winner for the first time in Ukraine's westernmost Transcarpathian region. Moreover, the relatively high voter turnout - 67% - showed that most Ukrainians associate themselves with their country and are not indifferent about its destiny.
Renowned political scientists and sociologists in Russia and Ukraine met via a live video link to discuss the outcome of the elections.
Most of the participants were in agreement in giving their forecasts for the subsequent development of the situation in Ukraine. The approximate scenario is the following - Yanukovych will win the second round by a narrow margin, since, first, his solid lead in the first round is impossible to ignore.
"In 2004, Ms. Tymoshenko refused to concede and she won. In 2007, Ms. Tymoshenko refused to recognize the results of the parliamentary majority vote and she won. Why a person that has refused to concede and won twice would refuse to do this a third time, I honestly don't know," said Russian State Duma Deputy Sergei Markov.
However, there is no danger of another "orange-like scenario." The West's interest in Ukraine is at least ostensibly more guarded. This can even be measured by the degree of coverage of the Ukrainian elections in the western press.
"Five years ago, outside factors played a key role," political scientist Vladimir Ryzhkov said. "Not from the point of view of intervention, but from the point of view of recognition. Today, there are no proponents for the destabilization of Ukraine. Everyone wants the second round to end in a victory for one of the candidates and that will be satisfactory."
The second round of the elections, which is scheduled for February 7, will show whether the experts were right. On the whole, most pundits agree that Yanukovych will win by a narrow margin. But there is no point in believing that victory will be automatic for the one with the electoral majority. Tymoshenko is not the kind of person who knows how to surrender, and for Yanukovych these elections are the last chance to justify all of the efforts and funds expended on him. The fight between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko is not over.
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100120/157626060.html
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