Canaries in the coal mine by Kos

[spiritual_gunfighter]

John Cole:

Why is it that all the people who claim to be the base turn out to be self-serving, self-promoting jackasses who have very narrow agendas and love to inform us that if the Obama administration does just what they want them to do right when they want them to do it, they will “keep the base.” Otherwise, if they don’t fulfill their agenda right then and there, they will “lose the base.” And strategically, it always works out so well- see demanding the public option be put in the Senate Bill and shutting down the Snowe negotiations.

John is a friend, so I say this with genuine respect -- yes, the Democrats have a base problem. And no, it's not because of Ed Schultz, me, Jane Hamsher, or anyone else. Let's be real, we're just not that powerful.

Daily Kos gets about 2 million unique visitors per month, plus maybe a couple more million reading other progressive blogs. Ed (and Olbermann and Maddow) probably get that many watching their shows every month. There's overlap, so let's say 3-5 million progressives reading blogs and watching MSNBC's prime time lineup -- a pittance compared to the 16 million or so that listen to Limbaugh every week, and the 2-4 million that watch Bill O'Reilly and Glenn Beck every night. Huffington Post is getting about 16 million unique monthly visitors these days, but 80 percent of that is entertainment, and the other 20 percent is split among business, sports, living, style, green, technology and finally politics.

Point is, our media machine is tiny. We don't have the power to move our base around.

And heck, we don't even reach much of our base. 18-29 year-olds, a key component of the Democratic base, don't read blogs or watch MSNBC. Neither do African Americans or Latinos, at least in significant numbers. Yet look at these voter intensity numbers:

In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

Def/Prob Not Likely/Won't

Dem 54 43
GOP 82 17

White 67 32
Black 26 55
Latino 38 51
18-29 38 53

As you can see, our base is demoralized and tuned out, and plan on sitting out the 2010 elections at rates that will absolutely fuck us if they don't improve by November.

But again, African Americans, Latinos, and young voters aren't tuning out because we failed to build bipartisan concensus with Olympia Snowe, or because MSNBC or the blogs made them angry. Making such claims is patently absurd. They're tuning out because we wasted 2009 "negotiating" with bad faith actors like Snowe and Mike Enzi. The tools were available to quickly pass a health care bill, yet Democrats were too incompetent to do so. And on issue after issue, they've proven completely ineffective.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/1/18/826443/-Canaries-in-the-coal-mine

[Ozymanithrax]

1. As much as I hat to admit it, you're right.

Doesn't make me feel any better.

But you are right.

[spiritual_gunfighter]

2. I didnt write it Kos did

but he is right and I hate to admit it too. When Ed Schultz told Robert Gibbs that "your losing your base", he should have said "you have LOST your base and you need to get it back and quick".

It is a sad thing really, I dont even want to entertain the thought of the Republicans taking back Congress.

[Betty Karlson]

11. I second the article's opinion. (Or "one-hundredth" it) N/T

[azmouse]

3. It's one of the problems with young voters...

they don't come out in the midterm elections the way older voters do.

[The Hope Mobile]

7. Especially when they busted butt for a president who seriously failed them

[Gman]

4. Absolutely ridiculous analysis

To say that turnout will be down because "the base" (whatever TF that is) is "demoralized" is a pretty blatant attempt to take some credit in advance when what happens historically actually happens. The fact is, 18-29 year olds do not vote. Last year was an anomaly. Even Hispanics (begrudgingly) voted in higher numbers than usual in 08. General turnout is always lower in off year elections. When you claim a base that in fact has pretty low rates of voting you really don't have a base composed of the parts you claim, do you? Too many people just want to be able to say "I told you so" while betting on the overwhelming favorite.

[nashville_brook]

5. guess we don't need those voters. better off without them. who do they think they are, anyway!

[Gman]

6. They're not voters

and they have very little to zero interest in politics. Takes too much to pay that much attention. They're not a base in any sense of the word.

[The Hope Mobile]

8. Denial. These are the people who busted butt for Obama

and would do so again if he hadn't blown his opportunity to bring about change we can believe in.

[spiritual_gunfighter]

13. You are in denial

I sort of understand why, it is hard to come to terms with. I hope you can.

[Gman]

14. Deny what? 18-29 doesn't vote?

You're into some serious wishful thinking that really only happened once since 1972 and isn't likely to happen again anytime soon.

Makes 85% of 18-29 non-voters.

[pezDispenser]

9. Here is what is being overlooked

The base isn't 18 to 29 year olds or significant numbers of african americans or latinos. The base is the group of people that get those people to 'rock the vote'. Leverage.

[TexasObserver]

10. That the administration doesn't realize it is in trouble is distressing.

They really don't get it. When they wake up the day after the mid term elections wondering what happened, I hope there will be a progressive Democrat somewhere to explain it to them.

[Betty Karlson]

12. And what about the day after Massachusetts?

I believe there were progressive Democrats then, explaining it to them? I'm losing faith in Obama beyond the point of return.

[4dsc]

15. Fuck this ridicuous health care bill

I'm the base of the democratic party and the leaders of our party are weak at best.