Lies in Real Time

[Daveparts still]

Lies in Real Time
By David Glenn Cox


Last month many House Democrats were not on board with the Senate version of healthcare reform. Then President Obama held his healthcare summit and incorporated just a few more Republican ideas and now the bill is off to the races.

No public option, restrictive abortion language, forced purchases from private health insurance companies with an increase in the tax penalty from 2% to 2.5%. Why aren’t I cheering? Thirty-five Democrats claim to be on board with a public option passed in reconciliation, but you want to bet on that happening?

Let’s see, the average American family income is around $48,000 dollars, so 2.5% of that would be $1,200. The average American family tax refund is around $3,000, so half for you and half for the government. A win, win situation, for the government, that is. In the words of Winston Churchill, "We have suffered a total and unmitigated defeat...you will find that in a period of time which may be measured by years, but may be measured by months.” All that is left of the bill once known as health care reform is a smorgasbord of special interest toppings.

The biggest disappearance is discussion from the news media. Other than Olbermann the public option issue is mostly gone, ditto debate over abortion language and the tax penalty. It’s all one big happy family now. Hosanna, we have the most all-encompassing healthcare reform in a generation, so rejoice, ask no questions and ignore that a solid majority of the benefit goes to the insurance and hospital industries.

“Fed Says Economy Improved at ‘Modest’ Pace in Regions”

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- "The U.S. economy improved in nine of the Federal Reserve’s 12 regions in January and February while being hampered by snowstorms in the eastern U.S., the central bank said today.

“In most cases the increases were modest, the Fed said in its Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee meets to set monetary policy. Consumer spending increased in many regions, while commercial real estate and loan demand were weak and labor markets soft, the Fed said.”

So, the economy got better except it didn’t. Which is it? The Fed says consumer spending improved slightly in many districts, except for the ones where it didn’t. The economy trimmed payrolls by another 63,000 but the Fed blames that on snowstorms. “Well, Bob, as you can see it snowed quite a bit so we're going to have to lay you off.”

“The U.S. has lost 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any slowdown in the post-World War II era. U.S. companies last month cut 20,000 jobs, the fewest in two years, according to data today from ADP Employer Services.”

Good news, the economy only shrank by 20,000 jobs last month. Of course that’s on top of the 8.4 million already unemployed and the millions more underemployed or no longer counted as unemployed. Just think, when it gets down to a hundred people working full time nationwide then the Fed can say the economy only shrank by sixteen jobs.

These statistics ignore that as the economy shrinks the job pool shrinks with it. Those 20 or 63,000 jobs lost means 20 or 63,000 fewer chances to find employment for the other 8.4 million unemployed. It is a lie in real time, a headline that is demonstrably false. Happy talk, whistling past the graveyard.

“The U.S. economy expanded at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the most in six years, as the country recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s.” There was no recession in the 1930s; there was a depression known to scholars as the Great Depression. That expansion number was based on cash for clunkers and tax credits for homebuyers and rental car fleet purchases. That good fourth quarter economic number didn’t just happen, it was created in Washington. However, they’ve now shot their bolt and can’t do it again. Tax credits for homeowners failed to stop the second largest decline on record in new home purchases last month .

The tax credits are still there but the purchasers aren’t. Like the employed the pool is shrinking. Couples with one spouse unemployed or underemployed aren’t going to buy cars or homes. Tighter mortgage qualifications thin out the pool of available purchasers even further. So no recovery for builders, suppliers, mortgage bankers, carpenter, masons, roofers, etc.

“Atlanta-based Home Depot Inc., the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, last month projected comparable-store sales will climb 2.5 percent from February 2010 to January 2011 after dropping 6.6 percent last year.”

Let the good times roll! Up 2.5% after being down 6.6%. Say you’ve got a dollar, one hundred pennies, and you lose 6.6% of your pennies. You’ve now got 93.4 pennies; then you gain 2.5 % on your 93.4, which is 2.3 pennies. You haven’t recouped your losses and you're counting your new pennies based on a percentage of what you have left. Last year Home Depot closed underperforming stores and laid off over 7,000 employees. Underperforming does not mean stores that were losing money but stores not making enough money.

“Cincinnati-based Macy’s Inc. said sales at established stores will grow by as much as 2 percent after slumping 5.3 percent in the 12 months through January.”

The Sacramento Bee January 6, 2010- "Macy's announced Tuesday it will close five underperforming stores across the country. The stores are in Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Montana and New Jersey. About 300 employees will be affected, but the company said it will try to reassign some of them."

So the 2 percent number is dependent on closing underperforming stores. Gosh, that’s good news. I guess the economy really is turning around.

Other stores closing in 2010:

760 Movie Gallerys (Hollywood Video, Game Crazy)
200 Waldenbooks (Borders)
196 Jones Apparels
149 f.y.e.s
117 Foot Lockers
117 The Walking Companys
79 Penn Traffics
50 B. Daltons (Barnes & Noble)
50 Gaps
48 Destination Maternitys
28 Crabtree & Evelyns
30 Jo-Anns
28 Disney Stores
24 Pier Ones
20 American Eagles
20 Kirkland's
15 Food Lions
14 Basha’s
12 Papa John’s
10 Sam's Clubs
9 Home Valu Interiors
8 Albertson’s
8 Pearl Art and Craft Supplies
8 Synders Drug Stores
7 Tuesday Mornings
4 Hallmarks
4 Ken Crane’s
4 Targets
3 Home Depots
3 Kmarts
2 Brookshire’s
2 El Pollo Locos
2 Lambda Risings
2 Nokias
2 Pizzeria Unos
2 Simmons Comfort Worlds
2 Zumiezs
1 Benjamin Franklin
1 Big Y Foods
1 Bloom
1 Braum’s
1 Burger King
1 Cartier
1 CB2 (Crate & Barrel)
1 Chico’s
1 Coldwater Creek
1 Dairy Queen
1 Daphne’s
1 Lighthouse Christian Stores
1 L.L. Bean
1 Margarita’s Mexican
1 Marsh Supermarket
1 Nine West
1 Old Navy
1 Popeye’s
1 Ream’s
1 Reebok Outlet
1 Safeway
1 Salvation Army Thrift Store
1 Sports Authority
1 Trade Secret
1 True Value

This is a list of company stores and does not include franchise locations. From the Salvation Army to Cartiers, stores closing from the top of the economy to the bottom.

“Fed Says Economy Improved at ‘Modest’ Pace in Regions”

Lies in real time.

[dixiegrrrrl]

1. Bingo.

K&R, yes indeedy.

[winyanstaz]

2. You forgot our local dollar store...and the little pet shop down the street...

Not to mention the paint store closed a few months ago.

A lot of the tourist shops wont be opening this summer.

Main street in the little town that I live on the edges of...looks like a ghost town most days.

No one to be seen walking around because there is nothing to buy with so many stores shut...and no money to buy with the biggest lumber mill shut down and a lot of downsizing everywhere.

Then there is the forest of for sale signs on the housing...and the empty housing while the homeless seem to be a lot more visible..most of the major corners have people standing on them with signs now.

[Daveparts still]

3. I Pondered That One

the other day, I bet the company that prints the "For Sale" signs and "Space for Lease" are just covered up with work

[silversol]

4. Each Store Closing

means less deliveries and less sales taxes collected, fewer business licenses,less fuel taxes and on and on.

[DemReadingDU]

5. which results in

more stores closing, more people jobless, less taxes collected so cities layoff people and cut back services. With even more people jobless, moneyless, and hungry, they resort to stealing food and other crimes. There is no end to this spiral.
:(

[amborin]

6. recommend

[grasswire]

7. little town on Oregon coast in real trouble

From yesterday's newspaper:

"Today, to drive through town is to pass a half-dozen grim reminders of projects stalled, abandoned or in foreclosure: a condo/retail project, a resort cottage village, a retail plaza, the grocery store, the health clinic, a restaurant. Travel up the hill, and you'll find three subdivisions, all stalled for want of water and sewer connections. And most recently, the doors closed on the aptly named Landmark Restaurant, in business on that spot since 1911 and now for sale.

What's going on in Yachats? To some degree, it's the same thing that is going on across the country. But an economic downturn can hit especially hard in small communities such as those that dot the Oregon coast. And in the case of Yachats, it's hitting a village with a high poverty rate and about 750 people, so everyone here hurts."

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/03/trouble_in_paradise_oregon_coa.html