America's Pipe Dream

[Dover]

America's pipe dream
A pro-western regime in Kabul should give the US an Afghan route for Caspian oil

George Monbiot The Guardian,
Tuesday 23 October 2001 23.54 BST

"Is there any man, is there any woman, let me say any child here," Woodrow Wilson asked a year after the first world war ended, "that does not know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry?" In 1919, as US citizens watched a shredded Europe scraping up its own remains, the answer may well have been no. But the lessons of war never last for long.
The invasion of Afghanistan is certainly a campaign against terrorism, but it may also be a late colonial adventure. British ministers have warned MPs that opposing the war is the moral equivalent of appeasing Hitler, but in some respects our moral choices are closer to those of 1956 than those of 1938. Afghanistan is as indispensable to the regional control and transport of oil in central Asia as Egypt was in the Middle East.

Afghanistan has some oil and gas of its own, but not enough to qualify as a major strategic concern. Its northern neighbours, by contrast, contain reserves which could be critical to future global supply. In 1998, Dick Cheney, now US vice-president but then chief executive of a major oil services company, remarked: "I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian." But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan.

Transporting all the Caspian basin's fossil fuel through Russia or Azerbaijan would greatly enhance Russia's political and economic control over the central Asian republics, which is precisely what the west has spent 10 years trying to prevent. Piping it through Iran would enrich a regime which the US has been seeking to isolate. Sending it the long way round through China, quite aside from the strategic considerations, would be prohibitively expensive. But pipelines through Afghanistan would allow the US both to pursue its aim of "diversifying energy supply" and to penetrate the world's most lucrative markets. Growth in European oil consumption is slow and competition is intense. In south Asia, by contrast, demand is booming and competitors are scarce. Pumping oil south and selling it in Pakistan and India, in other words, is far more profitable than pumping it west and selling it in Europe.

As the author Ahmed Rashid has documented, in 1995 the US oil company Unocal started negotiating to build oil and gas pipelines from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan and into Pakistani ports on the Arabian sea. The company's scheme required a single administration in Afghanistan, which would guarantee safe passage for its goods. Soon after the Taliban took Kabul in September 1996, the Telegraph reported that "oil industry insiders say the dream of securing a pipeline across Afghanistan is the main reason why Pakistan, a close political ally of America's, has been so supportive of the Taliban, and why America has quietly acquiesced in its conquest of Afghanistan". Unocal invited some of the leaders of the Taliban to Houston, where they were royally entertained. The company suggested paying these barbarians 15 cents for every thousand cubic feet of gas it pumped through the land they had conquered...cont'd

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2001/oct/23/afghanistan.terrorism11



This article is an oldy but a goody. And a reminder of why we are in Afghanistan.
Things are currently shifting however as the Iran/Pakistan (IP) pipeline deal was sealed last week
which will also be a great asset for China (a pipeline with a direct route from Iran thru Pakistan).
And this while the U.S. is attempting to impose severe sanctions on Iran and needs China's cooperation. Israel is applying pressure as well (both for personal security issues and its own oil/gas investments, no doubt). A very complicated game...

[Dover]

1. Iran playing the 'China card'

Iran-Pakistan pipeline: When will China join?
Posted on March 6, 2010 by The Editor

For over a decade Iran, Pakistan and India (IPI) have took pains at negotiating a major pipeline deal whereby Iran would send natural gas from its territory to the region. Yet geopolitical and commercial issues have repeatedly prevented the deal’s fruition despite Tehran’s growing need to diversify gas sales to Asian markets and Asian countries desire to find a stable, reliable source of gas supplies.

In recent years, India’s participation in this project has become more uncertain, which is partly responsible for the long delay that the project has suffered to date. Iran’s repeated attempts to raise the price of gas, U.S. pressure on India to refrain from participating in the pipeline, external skepticism about Iranian capability to fill the pipeline as it promises, Indian concerns about the overall stability of Pakistan, and in particular, the possibility of terrorism in Pakistan’s Balochistan province through which the pipeline would travel all contributed to India’s angst (Jane’s Intelligence Review, February 11). Indeed, Iran recently warned India that there is a limit to its patience in waiting for New Delhi to decide (Thaindian.com, February 9).

Iran was apparently able to present this ultimatum because it believes that it now has the “China card” in its deck. In early February, Iranian Foreign Minister Manucher Mottaki reportedly said that Iran was ready to start the pipeline at any time—even without India—and urged Pakistan not to heed U.S. pressure against the pipeline as China could soon replace India in the deal (Press Trust of India, February 8). Background Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari inked a $7.5 billion agreement in Tehran on May 23, 2009 to transfer gas from Iran to Pakistan. According to the deal, Iran will initially transfer 30 million cubic meters of gas per day to Pakistan, but will eventually increase the transfer to 60 million cubic meters per day. The pipeline will be supplied from the South Pars field. The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 bcm of natural gas per annum, which is expected to be raised later to 55 bcm (Zawya.com, February 5).

...cont'd

http://rupeenews.com/2010/03/06/iran-pakistan-pipeline-when-will-china-join/