What About Germany?
\Paul Krugman - New York Times Blog
August 24, 2010, 4:56 pm
Many people are now holding Germany up as proof that austerity is good.
There are a number of reasons that’s foolish, among them the fact that Germany’s austerity policies have not yet begun — up to this point they’ve actually been quite Keynesian.
But it’s also worth having some perspective on actual German performance to date.
Everything you’ve been hearing is about that uptick at the end. But I’m not willing to declare an economy that has yet to recover to the pre-crisis level of GDP an economic miracle.
Basically, here’s the German story: it’s an economy that didn’t have a housing bubble, so it wasn’t caught up directly in the bust. But it’s very export-oriented, with a focus on durable manufactured goods. Demand for these goods plunged in the early stages of the crisis — so that Germany, remarkably, had a bigger GDP decline than the bubble economies — but has bounced back since summer 2009. This has pulled Germany back up; exports to China have done especially well.
If there’s a slam-dunk argument for austerity in there, it’s remarkably well hidden.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/what-about-germany/