The Case for China's Coming Collapse

[nolabels]

http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?no=167839&rel_no=1

The Case for China's Coming Collapse
An unraveling Communist Party, world's worst banking and environment disasters sources of demise

Though often called a pessimistic outsider for sounding the alarm about the rapidly deteriorating status quo in China, Gordon G. Chang, an American lawyer and author, takes the ad hominem attacks in stride.

During his nearly 20 years in Hong Kong and Shanghai as a corporate finance and securities lawyer, Chang saw a shadow creeping up on China's future. But what he was reading in the press in the late 1990s about the Chinese reform process was markedly different from the reality on the ground. Though China appeared to have changed remarkably on the outside, little had changed underneath.


Gordon Chang (left) speaks with Dane Richmond, a Korean Studies exchange student from Australian National University
©2004 T. Thacker
China's leadership was weak and doggedly pursing unsustainable policies. Meanwhile a crisis in its social welfare system grew. All this rested on what he called "the worst banking system in the world."

After writing about China for the New York Times and other prominent papers, and briefing U.S. government officials from the CIA and Pentagon, among others, he finally give up his law practice to write "The Coming Collapse of China" (2001)
(snip)

[wtmusic]

1. Not good

"We should be concerned. China could be territorially ambitious. We could see a militant and belligerent Beijing."

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. You mean, their leaders might distract them from their domestic policies

by invading another country? What a novel idea.

[Jacobin]

6. LOL

Does sound familiar, doesn't it? :toast:

[ugarte]

4. I am not worried about a territorially ambitious China

What territory do they lay claim to except what is historically Chinese?

[dawg]

9. Huge chunks of Siberia ....

A Russo-Chinese war could be a real possibility if things start going to Hell in China and they are starved for raw materials.

[mulethree]

22. depends what you consider historical China

Could include Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, and ... whatever you call that chunk of far eastern Russia from Vladivostok to Sakhalin Island.

Thats of course without considering the Mongolian empire, those guys named Khan back around 1300.

Would not seem to include Taiwan or various islands in the South China Sea, which China has been claiming recently, towards the Philippines.

[gasperc]

3. who'll buy our bonds

yeah, china will continue to swamp us with cheap labor imports but who'll buy the bonds that allow us to maintain this huge deficit spending?

their crisis will be our crisis

[seasat]

5. I completely agree.

The Shrub's have allowed China to get us over a barrel. If we lock horns with China or China's economy crashes, they'll dump all their bonds and spike US interest rates. We used to be the sole economic super power in the world but China is quickly catching up to us and we are now dependent on them for the manufacture of many of our goods.

[Zolok]

7. We can't sit back and let them crush democracy in

Taiwan....smacks too much of Munich 1938 IMHO.
If indeed crushing democracy in Taiwan is their plan and that is a big if.

Strategy wise the problem with the PRC is that it is surrounded by functioning democracies...Japan India Taiwan....South Korea.

Everywhere Beijing looks they come crashing into bedrock principle.

I don't think the PRC wants war...I certainly do not want war but the situation requires close scrutiny.


www.chimesatmidnight.blogspot.com

[Sandpiper]

16. We don't want a war with China

Aside from the obvious economic reasons, we don't have the stamina to win a war with China. We didn't in Korea, and we don't now. China has almost 5 times the population of the United States, and in a time of war, could raise an army of 100 million if they wanted to.

[confusius]

20. Not to scare you

China has a standing army, right now, at this moment, of 250 Million men, from a population of 1 Billion plus. The population of the United States is 300 million

[mulethree]

26. thats not a standing army

A standing army is a permanent army of full-time, paid, equipped and trained soldiers. China has the largest in the world at around 2.5 million.

250 Million is the number of military-age Chinese males in good condition. These are people who could be drafted, though they are also the majority of the labor force including farmers, factory workers etc. So you could only enlist some smaller portion of this. But consider drafting 5-10% ... thats 12.5-25 Million.

The Chinese have discovered that quantity can't make up for quality. They used to have 4 million in their army who were mostly poorly educated, poorly trained and poorly equipped. Over the last 20 years or so they have been reducing the quantity while increasing the quality.

[nolabels]

18. But the people over there might want a fair shake for thier labor

That would be good for everybody

CHINESE DEMOCRACY

The bloody body of a dead student removed from the street
right after the Tiananmen Square crackdown on June 4, 1989.

Some say that after the student protests of 1989 and the massacre at Tiananmen Square in 1989, democracy and freedom in China died. I do not believe this to be so, and only have some patience and you will see what happens in a generation or two; wait and witness the backbone people can show when they are fighting for their freedom. As Czechoslovakia democrat Tomas G. Masaryk said in totalitarian Central Europe nearly 50 years: "Dictators always look good until the last minutes."
(snip)
http://www.rjgeib.com/thoughts/china/china.html

[Zolok]

21. Conversely...

does China have the economic wherewithal to keep an army of 100 million in the field?
That I doubt but lets hear from the experts.
As for Korea we actually accomplished all our original policy goals there which was to uphold South Korea's sovereignty. All that rollback guff only came in when it looked like MacArthur was gonna take North Korea easily after Inchon.
Instead it only brought the PRC's intervention.
Had Truman stopped a shade north of the 38th parallel the war might' been over a lot quicker sans any Chinese intervention.
Well it is all speculation...but army or no army we can't be tossing functional democracies to the dogs...it is a formula for chaos.

Lets hope for sanity all around....

www.chimesatmidnight.blogspot.com

[tom_paine]

25. WE can't...but the Busheviks sure can!

They are crushing democracy here, whoich is CERTAINLY more than a little reminiscent of Munich 1938.

Busheviks don't like Liberal Democracy, it's weak...not like Orwellian Totalitarianism, the "Managed Democracy" the the Busheviks have instituted in Imperial Amerika.

[nolabels]

27. Yea, but unlike Munich 1938, we already have their blueprint

Other than a few Freeps, It would probably hard to find someone that thought Orwellian Totalitarianism or Religious feudalism would be a good idea unless they were :scared: about other things (hint,hint).

Does this war on Terra sound a lot like the old Cold War to anybody :think:

Btw I did mean Religious feudalism

[seemslikeadream]

8. but but what will happen to WalMart?

oh dear!

[nolabels]

10. This Idea is HOT, check out what is going on with this story

This is what intrigues me here, it's a democracy of Journalism. We can all share and wont have to depend on top down news. It seems so necessary.


Journalism's Ultimate Road Warriors
Move over TV, OhmyNews is beta-testing the future of breaking news coverage

Amid the jostling and shouting of last month's pro- and anti-impeachment rallies in downtown Seoul, information proved to be a rare commodity. On March 27, both rallies kicked off just one street apart in Gwanghwamun and people all around the country wanted the latest news on this potentially explosive situation. But if they wanted up-to-the-minute coverage, not even television could convey the story as in-depth and immediately as is now technically feasible.

Korea's formidable telecommunications and Internet infrastructure leaves little excuse for this kind of news "black hole." Conditions are perfect for South Koreans to get their news from "the source" -- the people themselves.

The Internet is fundamentally an interactive medium, and this is where OhmyNews comes in. It is beta-testing the future of breaking news coverage in the form of wireless e-mail dispatches, mobile phone text messages, digital photos and even live video feeds.



Tapping into Wi-Fi hotspots, OhmyNews TV crews conducted complete live-coverage of the candle festival in the middle of the street


OhmyNews was established four years ago on the premise that the Internet could revolutionize journalism and make every citizen a reporter. Over the last few years, OhmyNews has developed its open source model of reporting, stripping traditional news organizations of their longstanding monopoly on information, to fill a niche that has made it a mover and shaker in the Korean news scene.
(snip)
http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?no=154143&rel_no=4

[David__77]

11. China will not collapse. They are in better structural shape than others.

They have a strong dedication--a unified dedication--to promote economic, infrastructural growth. There is an overbrimming optimism similar to the US west in the 1800s or the great public works projects of the New Deal. I think they not only will sustain their growth, but it will qualitatively further develop.

These policies are "unsustainable" to neo-liberal economists because they do not understand that "free market" economics are not required for prolonged economic expansion--and in fact, they are a detriment to a country like China.

[seemslikeadream]

12. Where will we get all that crappy steel from?

I need new brakes in my new truck because the steel is rottin' away faster that snowball in hell.

[nolabels]

13. It sounds like you need a salt free diet for your car

The internet is the new tool that works for everything. Brakes I know something about, but it sounds you have a bigger problem

http://www.carsavers.com/tipallaboutrust.htm
All About Rust

What is rust?
Rust is the substance that is formed when iron begins returning to its natural state (iron ore) by combining with oxygen to become ferric oxide. This chemical combining of metal and oxygen is called oxidation. The oxidation of any metal generates corrosion, and the corrosion of iron specifically is what we commonly call rust. The steel from which cars are made is iron alloyed with a small amount of carbon and therefore may rust. Wherever iron or steel is exposed to air (oxygen), rust is likely to occur eventually. The oxidation process is accelerated by moisture, acid rain, salt and dirt, all of which act as catalysts to speed up the rust process.

Do today's cars still rust?
Yes. Rust can begin in any area of the body, inside or out, that is exposed to the elements. A recent study conducted by Ziebart International Corp. involving 240 vehicles manufactured in the 1990s determined that 105 of the vehicles (44%) showed signs that rust had formed on the inside of metal panels. The predominant locations were the bottom seams on doors, the front seam on hoods, the lower seam on trunk lids, radiator support frames, fender attachment points and gasoline filler door areas. Current model vehicles have the same construction as the vehicles studied.

Auto makers protect the outer surfaces of fenders, doors and other metal parts with coatings of paint. Even though inner surfaces, such as door panels or the side of a fender that faces the chassis are coated, it is a much more difficult task to protect those surfaces from rust. Rust may begin on the inner side of the metal that is hidden from view and work all the way through the metal to the outside, painted surface, where it bubbles-up and forms a hole in the steel panel. Rust can begin in any area of the body that is exposed to the elements.
(snip)

You may even have waranty on it, Car makers cover faulty brake problems the longest (I hate salt on my car, thank goodness it don't snow where I live)

[seemslikeadream]

14. No warranty but it is bad steel!

I've got all four rotors that were taken off and the steel on one of them you can see it is just disinagrating! It's not from salt no way! I'm good friends with the shop guys and they have a pile of these suckers in the back of the shop. My truck is a 2001 4x4 Ford Crewcab not exactly brand new but.....

Thanks for the concern nolabels, I appreciate it

and it was 800 bucks tooo!

[nolabels]

15. Hope they didn't charge you a lot for the rotors or drums

They are so cheap now. I put some new brakes on on rear of my wifes Explorer the other day and both new rotors together were cheaper than the pads. It was way the other way years ago. Pads were about $20.oo, one new rotor was about $150.oo. How time changes. I had to do a double check on the 19.93 per rotor for the new ones. They were also made in Korea also. It is better they wear out fast like that, they don't get hot spots as fast (bad for good braking) and thus grab better for the new ABS systems.

[seemslikeadream]

19. Those brakes were made in Mexico.

It's Mexican steel and its no good either! I guess the best steel right now is from Canada.

[nolabels]

24. This is kind of interesting

I was looking for who makes the "Best" (very subjective, all kinds of different alloys and techniques) but kind of works for laymen (most of us, I would think). Much to do about steel

http://www.pakistaneconomist.com/page/issue03/i&e1.htm
NEW WORLD OF STEEL
(snip)
Benchmarking is measuring performance against that of best-in-class organizations, determining how best in class achieve those performance levels, and using the information as the basis for goals, strategies, and implementation. Japanese are famous for their benchmarking style (watch their eyes and lips), major American steel companies and British Steel have been benchmarked for betterment, creating a great steel empire.

What made Japanese super steel power is their deal on strategic management. You will find them always conducting situational analysis using SWOT analysis to examine strength and weakness in the internal environment as well as the opportunity and threat in the external environment. This helps them to build on strengths, overcome weakness and threats and take advantage of opportunities.

Formulation of strategy was done in most of the steel plants at corporate level to set overall direction for the organization. Then their strong focus is on business-level strategy guiding the strategies of each strategic business unit. Then setting functional strategies for marketing, operations, human resources, research and development, finance and information resources. At corporate level there were lot of action in terms of vertical integration of suppliers, distributors etc.

In horizontal integration diversification of products, mergers like JKK merging with Kawasaki steels, and joint ventures with organizations outside Japan. To some extent they are using retrenchment strategy by cutting workforce and closing non-profitable units.
(snip)

[cliss]

17. I'm not sure I understand.

Help me out here, please. I have this impression that China is the upcoming dreaded power, looming on the horizon. I hear that the Bushies are shivering in their boots over China.

Their economy has consistently grown by about 9.5% annually. That's quite a bit more than us, who have hovered around 4.2%, if even that.

[nolabels]

23. Need to check the per capita first

mulitply by population

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2004.html
(snip)
Background:

For centuries China stood as a leading civilization, outpacing the rest of the world in the arts and sciences. But in the 19th and early 20th centuries, China was beset by civil unrest, major famines, military defeats, and foreign occupation. After World War II, the Communists under MAO Zedong established a dictatorship that, while ensuring China's sovereignty, imposed strict controls over everyday life and cost the lives of tens of millions of people. After 1978, his successor DENG Xiaoping gradually introduced market-oriented reforms and decentralized economic decision-making. Output quadrupled by 2000. Political controls remain tight while economic controls continue to be relaxed.

(snip)
purchasing power parity - $4,700 (2002 est.)
(snip)
Economy - overview:

In late 1978 the Chinese leadership began moving the economy from a sluggish, Soviet-style centrally planned economy to a more market-oriented system. Whereas the system operates within a political framework of strict Communist control, the economic influence of non-state organizations and individual citizens has been steadily increasing. The authorities switched to a system of household and village responsibility in agriculture in place of the old collectivization, increased the authority of local officials and plant managers in industry, permitted a wide variety of small-scale enterprises in services and light manufacturing, and opened the economy to increased foreign trade and investment. The result has been a quadrupling of GDP since 1978. In 2003, with its 1.3 billion people but a GDP of just $5,000 per capita, China stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US (measured on a purchasing power parity basis). Agriculture and industry have posted major gains, especially in coastal areas near Hong Kong and opposite Taiwan, where foreign investment has helped spur output of both domestic and export goods. The leadership, however, often has experienced - as a result of its hybrid system - the worst results of socialism (bureaucracy and lassitude) and of capitalism (windfall gains and growing income disparities). China thus has periodically backtracked, retightening central controls at intervals. The government has struggled to (a) collect revenues due from provinces, businesses, and individuals; (b) reduce corruption and other economic crimes; and (c) keep afloat the large state-owned enterprises, many of which had been shielded from competition by subsidies and had been losing the ability to pay full wages and pensions. From 80 to 120 million surplus rural workers are adrift between the villages and the cities, many subsisting through part-time low-paying jobs. Popular resistance, changes in central policy, and loss of authority by rural cadres have weakened China's population control program, which is essential to maintaining long-term growth in living standards. Another long-term threat to growth is the deterioration in the environment, notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table especially in the north. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and economic development. Beijing says it will intensify efforts to stimulate growth through spending on infrastructure - such as water control and power grids - and poverty relief and through rural tax reform aimed at eliminating arbitrary local levies on farmers. Accession to the World Trade Organization helps strengthen China's ability to maintain strong growth rates but at the same time puts additional pressure on the hybrid system of strong political controls and growing market influences. China has benefited from a huge expansion in computer internet use. Foreign investment remains a strong element in China's remarkable economic growth.
(snip)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html