Northern Iraq - calm like a bomb

[acmavm]

By W Joseph Stroupe

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FF09Ak03.html

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As negotiations at the United Nations on a new resolution for Iraq apparently near a close, developments with respect to the Kurds and north Iraq, where there has been relative calm until now, are looking more and more ominous. Recently, the People's Congress of Kurdistan (the former Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK), announced an abrupt end to its five-year ceasefire with Turkish forces, warning that it would soon resort to violent means to achieve its ends.

Within a few days of the announcement, Kurdish forces in southern Turkey did attack Turkish forces, prompting a violent response. Additionally, according to a recent Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty report, "Kamis Djabrailov, chairman of the International Union of Kurdish Public Organizations that represents the Kurdish minorities in Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia and other CIS , told Interfax on 31 May that his organization approves the announcement three days earlier by the People's Congress of Kurdistan that it will end on 1 June its five-year ceasefire in hostilities with the Turkish armed forces."

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appears little hope that the Kurdish demands can be sufficiently taken into consideration without at the same time losing the already cautious and tentative support of the Sunnis and Shi'ites. And there also appears little hope that the Kurds will suddenly satisfy themselves with what the other two factions are comfortable in giving them. Hence, whether the Kurds might temporarily tone down their demands for the time being, or whether they more likely will ratchet up their demands as the UN negotiations proceed and the June 30 date nears, one thing that appears certain is that they will hold a major key to how events proceed in Iraq.

The United States has let loose a Kurdish "monster", not only on Iraq itself, but also on the region at large, a "monster" which cannot easily be put back into the box. If a diplomatic solution cannot be crafted that satisfies all of Iraq's three factions, and it is doubtful that one can, then a great deal of military muscle will be needed in the entire region to keep the disenfranchised Kurds "in check". And that muscle will have to come increasingly into play in northern Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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W Joseph Stroupe is editor-in-chief of GeoStrategyMap.com, an online geopolitical magazine specializing in strategic analysis and forecasting.