Juan Cole: The World Is Safer Without a Republican House

[marmar]

from truthdig:



The World Is Safer Without a Republican House

Posted on Nov 1, 2010
By Juan Cole


Although Congress for the most part leaves foreign policy to the president, it can occasionally intervene pivotally in that arena, as when it shot down Woodrow Wilson’s plan to have the U.S. join the League of Nations. Obama’s hopes for better relations with the Muslim world were based on a renewed U.S.-brokered peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, on direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, on gradually bringing the Afghanistan war to an end after an initial troop surge, and on a military withdrawal from Iraq. If the freshman class of 2010 comes into town riding atop elephants, it is likely to contribute to the failure of these policies, some of which were already in trouble, and thus to worsen U.S. security.

Some of Obama’s undertakings were unlikely to succeed from the beginning, such as an effort to have the right-wing Likud Party in Israel, with its far right-wing coalition partners, make peace with the deeply divided Palestinians. A Republican-controlled House, beholden to pro-Israel evangelicals, will back up the government of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in its refusal to freeze further settlements on the West Bank and its recalcitrance in negotiating in good faith with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Indeed, Eric Cantor wants to put aid to Israel in the U.S. defense budget so as to protect it from even the possibility of U.S. pressure. Republicans will pound a nail into the coffin of this round of peace talks, to the extent that they can do so. Since the worsening condition of the stateless Palestinians is the powder keg of Middle East politics, failure could lead to more uprisings and terrorism directed in part at the U.S.

Likewise, Obama’s overtures to the leadership in Iran have not borne fruit, and he has turned to stricter sanctions in an attempt to force Tehran to the bargaining table. A Republican Congress could do little more, short of war, which it is unlikely to declare. Its leaders will likely hold hearings and produce tendentious reports that can be used by a future, Republican administration for the purpose of making a case for military action against Iran. But Obama knows how overstretched the U.S. military already is, and how important Iran is to success in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he is highly unlikely to be stampeded into yet another conflict by the GOP.

Some Republicans on the tea party and Libertarian side of the spectrum, such as Rand Paul, running for the Senate in Kentucky, could offer foreign policy surprises if they win. Paul wants to reduce the number of U.S. military bases abroad and wants a “debate” on Afghanistan policy. A Sen. Paul would probably be an outlier in his own party who would be aligned with the Democrats least enthusiastic about the wars. Alaska GOP/tea party candidate Joe Miller, like Paul, wants to cut the defense budget and complains about the U.S. being overextended abroad, in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_world_is_safer_without_a_republican_house_20101101/

[Demeter]

1. But not enough so you would notice