WikiLeaks and Diplomats

[mgc1961]

Look at those storm clouds gathering. After the Sudanese take to the polls in January, many analysts predict renewed civil war and genocide. Once a United Nations tribunal indicts those behind former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination, we're told, the country will descend into chaos. If Greece, Ireland and Portugal start paying higher interest rates, the euro will unravel and the European Union will collapse. And the latest release of secret diplomatic cables by WikiLeaks? It signals "nothing short of a political meltdown for U.S. foreign policy," according to Der Spiegel.

Indeed, much of foreign-policy punditry these days has one underlying message: Disaster is upon us.

The problem with all these gloomy prognoses is they're most likely wrong. Before last summer's election in Lebanon, we were told a Hezbollah defeat would trigger a political conflict. In fact, Hezbollah lost and barely raised a peep. The year before, a number of Balkan experts thought Bosnia was "on the brink." Instead, Bosnia remains mostly the same: tense, but manageable. Year after year, we're told Iran is one year away from acquiring nukes — but then nothing happens.

More at http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/2010-11-30-column30_ST1_N.htm

Hey, don't stop there.

The business of diplomacy is often messy and when private communications become public, it can also be highly embarrassing.

But what struck us, and reassured us, about the latest trove of classified documents released by WikiLeaks was the absence of any real skullduggery. After years of revelations about the Bush administration’s abuses — including the use of torture and kidnappings — much of the Obama administration’s diplomatic wheeling and dealing is appropriate and, at times, downright skillful.

The best example of that is its handling of Iran. As the cables show, the administration has been under pressure from both Israel and Arab states to attack Tehran’s nuclear program pre-emptively. It has wisely resisted, while pressing for increasingly tough sanctions on Iran.

Go to http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/30/opinion/30tue1.html?hp

[bemildred]

1. What is that sucking sound I hear?

But anyway, I am glad to find out that this is really no big deal, and I look forward to getting on now with business as usual.

[mgc1961]

2. Here's a bit more from Der Spiegel:

"The 9/11 of world diplomacy." That's how Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini described the leaking of over 250,000 confidential US State Department documents by the whistleblowing organization WikiLeaks.

While it remains to be seen what the lasting impact of the explosive leaks will be, it is already clear that the revelations are a huge embarrassment for Washington and a massive setback for US diplomacy. American representatives abroad may find it difficult in the future to find informants who are as willing to to talk openly as they might have been in the past, now that reams of supposedly confidential conversations have been made public.

Many of the politicians who have been most embarrassed by the unflattering portraits of them in the US embassy cables have been quick to play down their significance. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi reportedly had a "good laugh" when he read the revelations, despite being described as "feckless, vain, and ineffective." German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, who is portrayed as "arrogant" and lacking in foreign policy expertise, told reporters Monday that he had already had to read plenty of "other things" that the media had written about him.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,732007,00.html