I got some revolution in today

[underpants]

We have all been sick mostly the whole week so our girl (it is her 5 1/2 birthday) slept in today. I got up late but was able to watch the revolution on TV. Apparently the revolution WILL be televised.

Long winded text follows. Stop me if you have heard this one before.

Three steps to the revolution in Egypt.

Step 2 – The Tunisian middle class takes to the streets armed with definitive information of the corruption that “The Family” has engaged in for the last 23 years and the scope. This includes creating a middle class as a buffer and then placating it as they expand their enormous wealth. Yes it is an informed and educated middle class “riot”. Well actually, as usual, it was a police riot as those in power completely misjudged and overreacted to events. Our media settled on “high food prices” as the reason as they scrambled to find out how to tell this story. The middle class is under employed and have lost ground over the last 15 years or so.

Step 3 – The Egyptians encouraged by the Tunisians decide “Why not us too?” and out they went. Mubarak completely overreacted sending security forces (secret police) out to attack the protesters (here after referred to as “the people”) and shut down communications. The people had no idea of what was happening as they were cut off so they went out in to the streets themselves. Mubarak fed the fire. 20% of Egypt lives in Cairo, it spread to Suez and Alexandria as fed fires do. 60% are unemployed. 40% under the age of 30 are unemployed. Profits vs. civil unrest is a balancing act. The National Museum has been looted, early reports said that the people had surrounded it to protect it, later reports say and show that there was looting- the looters entered from the top of the building, it is the tallest building in the area. Unless there were invisible helicopters it was literally an inside top-down job. Now Richard Engel (does that guy sleep?) is reporting that there is looting in gated communities, I guess they really misallocated those security forces.

Step 1 (skipped that didn’t I?) – Wikileaks. The Tunisians had and actually read the diplomatic cables spelling out the extent to which they were being ripped off.

Our media has taken one of three approaches to Wikileaks
1. Nothing to see here please move alone
2. He has endangered national security. Truth does that. The people are national security.
3. Attack the messenger. Focus on the individual (but not the people). He has still not been charged by anyone for anything.

Egypt is one of our allies and only one of two (Jordan) for Israel in the region. They used to have open tank land battles between the two but after Camp David that stopped, we had a stable but reprehensible friend there. President Carter – I saw 10 seconds of a mention of him this morning. He is as much a part of the recent history of Egypt as anyone. Israeli tanks are paid for by us ($6 billion a year) but weren’t our actual tanks – we paid triple to keep that technology close to the breast. The Egyptians used Soviet tanks. Ending the land wars crushed a Soviet economy built mostly on grain and exported military equipment.

The Egyptian military is seen by all as highly professional and the stabilizing force. Mubarak came from the military after Sadat was assassinated by the early form of what we would know to be Al Qaeda. The people were begging for the Army to get involved days ago and as we have seen the people celebrated the military getting into the streets earlier today. Fox News might have said that they were calling for Palin to be President. The Egyptians are very well funded by us. $1.3 Billion a year but then we pretty much pay everyone’s military budget through foreign aid.

The “Muslim Brotherhood” is a non factor. Their only purpose is to keep parts of the Saudi family happy and to create an false opposition against those already in power. Every voice from the people in Egypt has already rejected any involvement of the Brotherhood. Anyone who says differently is either filling air time or has connections to military contractors.

What do we do?
Obama is in a tough spot. Not an excuse, no one in DC or anywhere else saw this coming and they haven’t figured out how to deal with it yet. Our media reflects the corporate conventional wisdom so if we haven’t got a story out of them yet that means that no one is sure what to do. They have to be praying that it cools somehow by the end of the weekend – not likely. Money won’t solve it the people know that any money won’t come to them as it now stands. Obama should support the people you know democracy and all but he will probably try to find someone that will settle it down, keep Israel safe, and keeps commerce (oil) going through the canal.

Mubarak will have to go as Ben Ali flew out of Tunisia a few days ago. Meanwhile I am going to sit back and watch another wall fall…. On TV.

[dipsydoodle]

1. I don't agree

that the “Muslim Brotherhood” is a non factor.

They swelled yesterday protest, with very little effort other than a request to the Immans , from 8000 protesters to 80,000 .

To date they have not been allowed to field candidates in elections other than those who stood as independents. They may chose not to get involved anyway but it is up to the Egyptians themselves how much support is shown for them.

Please provide a link to "Every voice from the people in Egypt has already rejected any involvement..."

[xchrom]

2. Strong recommend and so nice to read something

From someone who is not afraid of the Egyptian people.

Well done.

[snot]

3. Sources?

Esp. re- the Muslim Brotherhood.

Also, I've seen reports that US interests may in fact have helped prepare for the uprising; e.g., http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2F&h=ad290

I'm not saying you're wrong about these things; just saying that, since there are contrary indicators, sources would be helpful.

[underpants]

4. .

(AP) – 3 hours ago

The largest and most organized opposition group, the banned Muslim Brotherhood, has not reached out to non-conservative Muslims, limiting its base of supporters.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hKHGZjdI5H8DyNgJS-d318iKS94A?docId=2e7d628cdd6242f5be8ea2157cb043f5




Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer wrote a post called 'Don't Fear Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood' for The Daily Beat yesterday in which he said that "understanding the Brotherhood is vital to understanding our options" in coping with a potential post-Mubarak Egypt:

Technically illegal, it has an enormous social-welfare infrastructure that provides cheap education and health care. In Egypt's unfair elections, it is always the only opposition that does well even against the heavily rigged odds.

Others disagreed that the role of the Muslim Brotherhood was central to the opposition, given the diversity of the anti-government coalition and the leadership of the reformers like Mohamed ElBaradei, who recently wrote in Time:

If we are talking about Egypt, there is a whole rainbow variety of people who are secular, liberal, market-oriented, and if you give them a chance they will organize themselves to elect a government that is modern and moderate. They want desperately to catch up with the rest of the world.
Historically, Islam was hijacked about 20 or 30 years after the Prophet and interpreted in such a way that the ruler has absolute power and is accountable only to God. That, of course, was a very convenient interpretation for whoever was the ruler. Only a few weeks ago, the leader of a group of ultra-conservative Muslims in Egypt issued a fatwa, or religious edict, calling for me to "repent" for inciting public opposition to President Hosni Mubarak, and declaring the ruler has a right to kill me, if I do not desist. This sort of thing moves us toward the Dark Ages. But did we hear a single word of protest or denunciation from the Egyptian government? No.

http://onfaith.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/undergod/2011/01/egypt_uprising_the_muslim_brotherhood_a_wildcard.html

Proving my point - Israel chimes in
There were also concerns that anti-Israel opposition groups, including the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, might gain a larger voice in Egyptian decision-making.

"A stable Egypt with a peace treaty with Israel means a quiet border," one Israeli official told The Associated Press. "If there is a regime change Israel will have to reassess its strategy to protect its border from one of the most modern militaries in the region."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_egypt