article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8369427/Oil-markets-brace-for-Saudi-rage-as-global-spare-capacity-wears-thin.htmlEXCERPT:
Libya's conflict has already cut spare capacity by a third. Hopes for a quick solution are fading as the country succumbs to civil war along ancient lines of tribal cleavage. A raft of new projects planned for the Sirte Basin by mid-decade will be mothballed.
Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, said the long-denied oil crunch is starting to bite. "We cling to the comfort blanket that spare capacity exists, but it is mostly fictional, or inoperable. If you take 2m bpd off the figure, the whole dynamic of global oil supply changes," he said.
A Wikileaks cable cited a Saudi geologist claiming that the kingdom's reserves had been overstated by 40pc. A second cable questioned whether the Saudis "any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period".