Marshall Brain: robots will take your job by 2040, I say: it's about time!

[txlibdem]

During the past two decades scientists and engineers have been busy building robots able to take over many of the menial, difficult or dangerous jobs that people still do today. Robots that can enter a building flattened in an earthquake to look for survivors, robot house cleaners, robot receptionists, robot factory workers, even a robot chef have been invented, just to name a few. Now, with the recent appearance on the game show Jeopardy of IBM's Watson computer, humans may soon find themselves inched out of white collar jobs as well. And Watson can do a whole lot more than spout useless factoids or trivia; it analyses reams and reams of data and can "deduce" an answer to a query based on its vast store of knowledge. What does a doctor do when he or she asks you about your symptoms? Watson can do that. What does a lawyer do when trying to prepare for court? Watson may make these jobs obsolete, or it may simply serve as an invaluable aid to them (I'm personally hoping all the lawyers go the way of the dodo bird).

Marshall Brain, an EE, and founder of How Stuff Works says that by 2040 robots will have taken half the jobs in the world. By 2013 there will be 1.2 million industrial robots "on the job" worldwide -- that's one robot for every 5,000 people in the world. So when will robot workers outnumber human workers? And then it's only a matter of time until robots are doing all of the jobs.

Does that worry me? Nope. I look forward to the day that robots are doing all of the mundane or dangerous jobs in the world. People will then be free to pursue more worthwhile careers. Mr Brain opines that all humans should share in the spoils of robot labor and receive a $25,000 stipend or enough to cover basic necessities. I think his heart is in the right place on that but what about people who live in New York City where $25,000 won't even pay your rent. My suggestion is that the necessities of life would be provided to all for free.

Some naysayers are already warming up their keyboards I am sure: Will robots run amok and kill us all because they're jealous, angry, feeling superior, or just plain nuts? No, not according to this article entitled Real-life robots obey Asimov's laws

Those of you who are science fiction fans will recall Isaac Asimov's "three laws of robotics," which anticipated issues dealing with human/robot interaction and laid out rules that robots in his fictional universe were compelled to obey. Now European researchers are developing technology designed to enable today's real-life robots to obey the three laws:

1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/industrial-control-designline-blog/4030457/Real-life-robots-obey-Asimov-s-laws

Maslow's hierarchy of needs states that the most basic needs must be met first and an individual needs to feel absolutely secure in that before he or she can truly develop into a person. What I am proposing is that robots should provide to us with the bottom steps of the pyramid, freeing us to devote our lives to achieving the top, the pinnacle of human existence.


Resources:
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/industrial-control-designline-blog/4030462/Will-robots-be-taking-your-job-
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/industrial-control-designline-blog/4030457/Real-life-robots-obey-Asimov-s-laws
http://worldofweirdthings.com/2010/11/01/robots-just-might-take-your-job-and-keep-it/
http://www.botjunkie.com/2010/08/19/robots-will-take-your-job-if-they-havent-already/
http://www.botjunkie.com/category/androids/
http://spectrum.ieee.org/blog/automaton
http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/02/that-robot-took-my-job-.html
http://www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/what-is-watson/watson-after-jeopardy.html
http://www.businesspundit.com/8-insane-japanese-robots-that-will-take-your-job-and-possibly-your-life/

[LiberalEsto]

1. If I have a job in 2040, that will be a miracle.

Seeing as I'm 59 and unemployed for nearly two and a half years.

[jtuck004]

2. I think the same about 2011. LOL n/t

[txlibdem]

3. I hear you, I've been disabled since 2009

...and still battling to get some kind of financial help.

[emsimon33]

4. They already took over the Republican Party!

And that would be the brainless robots of today... .

[TlalocW]

5. In the year, 2525... if man is still alive... if woman can survive... they may fiiiiind

Just kidding.

I don't know about this prediction... I'm still waiting for my flying car that I was promised by now.

TlalocW

[txlibdem]

8. There is some of that but look at the increasing numbers of robots starting in 1990

Look at the charts at this link from post #1: http://www.botjunkie.com/2010/08/19/robots-will-take-your-job-if-they-havent-already/

In 1990 there were 454,000 robots worldwide.
In 2009 there were 1 million robots.
By 2013 there will be 1.2 million robots.

The chart shows a clear growth pattern of the number of robots. It is only a matter of time till there are enough robots to take over all of the jobs.

Scientists are working on robot prototypes to take the place of migrant farm workers. I look forward to the day when our food can be planted, grown, tended, picked, packaged, and sold without human hands (which may or may not have been washed after those persons last went #2). Or are you not aware that up to 50% of men and 25% of women don't wash their hands with soap and water even after going #2? Then they pick your food, or prepare it, or bring it to you with a smile. It makes me want to vomit just thinking of it.

Give me the robots. Now.

[BobbyBoring]

12. You didn't opt for the flying pony??

That was my pick. Still waiting too~

[txlibdem]

18. Actions speak louder than words

That is your signature line. Why is that in your post when said post is nothing but nonsense.

Actions speak louder than words. The actions in that post are nonsense and meaningless to the discussion.

[Mybrokenchains]

6. If republicans knew of this their heads would explode...

they wouldn't know how to cope......does not compute much? lol

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. Anyone who wanted to pursue a "worthwhile career" wouldn't want to live in New York City

Live somewhere nicer, and cheaper, instead, if you don't need to live in NYC for your job. Problem solved.

[txlibdem]

9. It's expensive to live there but nothing compared to Tokyo

And Japan has the highest number of robots per worker of any nation in the world. In Japan, however, the working class knows that robots aren't there to compete with them, they're there to do the repetitive or hard jobs that humans shouldn't have to do anyway. The Japanese love robots and so should we.

Who's your buddy? Who's your pal? Robots are, aren't they.

[Hestia]

13. Japan doesn't have the righteous right commanding them to breed infinitum

like we do here. Isn't there some push there for women to actually have a child? What do we do with the "surplus" people who can't find a job?

[raccoon]

10. And what will ordinary people live off? Panhandling?

" Mr Brain opines that all humans should share in the spoils of robot labor and receive a $25,000 stipend or enough to cover basic necessities. I think his heart is in the right place on that but what about people who live in New York City where $25,000 won't even pay your rent. My suggestion is that the necessities of life would be provided to all for free."

Good luck with either one of those ideas in the USA.

[rpannier]

22. Nope

The robots will be panhandling instead

Either that or they'll be used by the elite (billionaires) to chase the humans panhandling away.

[The2ndWheel]

11. Why not? I say do it. Sooner rather than later

I can't wait for the mess it'll make. It'll be far bigger than the one we have now.

"People will then be free to pursue more worthwhile careers."

"Robots that can enter a building flattened in an earthquake to look for survivors, robot house cleaners, robot receptionists, robot factory workers, even a robot chef have been invented, just to name a few. Now, with the recent appearance on the game show Jeopardy of IBM's Watson computer, humans may soon find themselves inched out of white collar jobs as well."

If robots are doing more and more of the work, what worthwhile careers would be left? Why would we leave problem solving to people? It wouldn't matter if people accepted facts, because people wouldn't matter enough for that to be the case. A lack of prejudice? What difference would it make? What, they won't get their free stuff if they are? If someone doesn't accept a fact, will they not get their free necessities?

"My suggestion is that the necessities of life would be provided to all for free."

It won't be free. It never will be. Not only would we have robots doing all the work, but then we have every human benefiting from it without having to do anything for it, plus doing whatever self-actualization activities we'd be doing on top of all that. The environmental impact of that would be tremendous, if not stunning.

Everything has a cost. Robots will not change that. We will still live in physical reality.

[bhikkhu]

14. This crap again...

A fundamental part of the life and livelihood of any person is their employment. Look at it this way: each day the needs and comforts of every person on the planet are provided for by the labor of others - all the things that surround us, all the things that we consume and use. In a healthy society, our labor is given in return, and we are part of a society of "reciprocal benefit", you might say. There is nothing worse for a person than to be excluded or alienated from society, such that we still need the products of other's labor, but our own is unnecessary.

The whole robot thing is a sideshow, and more pursued by the wrong types who believe people are lazy and don't want to work, or who would rather shuffle "labor" types off to the poorhouse where they can be more easily managed. What people want is employment, community, and to be a part of a working, healthy society. Money of course is the mediator of all that (for better or worse), and there fairness is also needed.

[txlibdem]

17. There is nothing worse for a person than to be excluded or alienated from society

Your post makes me wonder what world you're living in:

We are, right now, all excluded from society. I mean a proper society, not a life of wage slavery or a life of sleeping in your box (house/apt), traveling to work in your box (car), working in your box till late in the day and you're about to fall down (cubicle, etc.), traveling back home in your box, sh*t/shower/shave and fall asleep in your box again just so you can do it all again tomorrow. That is not a society. That is not living.

When the robots are doing all of the stupid work we will then *have* a society. Right now we have none.

Your comment strikes me as one whose view of people is that they're lazy and don't want to work. I have a much more positive view of people. I believe that, if they didn't have to spend every waking moment scraping together pennies just to survive, they would spend their time with more important pursuits.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." -- United States Declaration of Independence

Our current system does not hold up to that promise, quite the opposite.

[joshcryer]

21. The industrial revolution *should have* lowered the daily work hours. It didn't 'cause capitalism...

...is impressively great at fucking people over. The workerist movements fell right in to the 'fears' of machinery making jobs easier and making life easier in general.

Here's a primitivist piece that still qualifies for technology (not to be confused with technocrats): http://deoxy.org/endwork.htm

[bluedigger]

15. I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords!

[txlibdem]

16. Thank you, Kent Brockman

I love that pic! Priceless!

:hide: :hi:

[Bill USA]

19. Robot dance - Kung-foo fighting

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yjjXxvzAlY&feature=related

[joshcryer]

20. It'll be earlier than that, the open hardware movement will make it happen earlier.

[txlibdem]

33. I looked up the open hardware movement, seems interesting

It could be done by a very large number of very talented people. I have great faith in the ability of humans to overcome obstacles and to bring insights to a problem that would have been considered impossible before.

But I won't lie: this will be a huge undertaking, requiring a complete shift in the goals of society away from greed and toward the betterment of all Mankind (and the future survival of our species). Maybe I'm a decade (or a few) ahead of the times?

[jacquelope]

23. Stuxnet.

Does anyone here know what Stuxnet is? :D

[txlibdem]

26. Antidote to Stuxnet, anti-virus software and proper operating system

Needless to say, these robots will not be running an OS from Microsoft (no offense Mr. Gates, please don't have me killed).

The problem with current operating systems is that every file on the system can be run as a program (betcha didn't know that). A proper operating system would be hard wired into the chips and the data would be in a separate memory system, incompatible with the circuits that execute program code so viruses could be pumped into the system all day long but never gain any traction. Further, the knowledge base of the robot (the data that the robot uses to make decisions and to store its experiences) should be inaccessible from the outside world.

Will it be an easy system to program? Not as easy as hiring a gaggle of fresh grads from some foreign country to plunk around on keyboards (and then call it Program Vista).

[jacquelope]

27. Yes, ROM will defeat today's Stuxnet.

But that doesn't protect the ROM from poisonous data. The knowledge base can be poisoned by incoming data by internal sabotage; if the computer is reading financial data, for instance, it can be told the stock market is crashing and go horribly awry. A nuclear reactor computer with ROM can be told the reactor is going rogue and its incorruptible ROM will order an automatic shutdown. Also, if it's inaccessible to the outside world it reduces its weak points (no one can screw it up remotely) but it also makes it inconvenient for remote management and local (on-site) threats still exist.

Plus it'll require the use of absolute ROM, as opposed to today's Firmware which is used in its place; ROM makes a computer very hard to upgrade. I daresay ROM is murderously inconvenient. Plus ROM can be poisoned, too; see a few instances of Microsoft's past virus-infected updates.

Heck, forget Luddites; the damage could even be done by corporate espionage.

[txlibdem]

28. ROM stands for Read-Only Memory -- no writing possible

You may be referring to EEPROM? Which is like a ROM but it *can* be rewritten.

In my post above, I refer to an operating system that is hard wired into the chips. Unchangeable. Unalterable. What you refer to as "absolute ROM" which is not the correct term. The term is, simply, ROM.

Is it inconvenient to have all program data protected inside the chip? I don't know? Were the people hit by Stuxnet inconvenienced when their entire operation was fried because their equipment had the ability to be re-written? Is it convenient for the millions of people whose computers are, as we speak, infected with a trojan horse that turns them into a tool for the Russian mafia (who will use them to extort money from companies or whoever on threat that these millions of "zombie" computers will be used to attack their network or website)?

I've never seen anything more inconvenient than the "easy to upgrade" computers we have today. When I started with computers we had to use punch cards (sometimes stacks and stacks of them) to program the computer. Inconvenient? Yes. Hackable? Not on your life.

[jacquelope]

29. I'm not talking about whether ROM is writeable.

A computer with ROM where no writing is possible can still be made to go awry with bad data. Like I said, a nuclear reactor with ROM can still be told that the reactor has gone rogue and by its ROM programming it will try to shut down... causing a really big problem. Unalterable operating systems still depend on clean data. Screw up the data and things still go wrong. As for punch cards what happens when you put in a punch card with bad data? You can still bring the system down. Show me any punched card system and I can show you an easy way to sneak in a punched card with really evil data on it.

[txlibdem]

30. You're talking about EEPROM, not ROM

There is a huge difference. Once a ROM is written with data the last step in the process is to burn out the contacts with a high current pulse: no further writing possible. This is where the unchangeable program would be stored and the experiential data would be only accessible through the ROM.

It's similar in concept to how the Linux operating system stores programs versus data on the hard drive. Windows, for example, mixes files of all types together: programs can be right next to documents or videos; heck even a .jpg file can be made to become an executable file in windows. That is a system designed from the ground up to ensure it is vulnerable to hacking, trojans, worms and viruses. Linux takes a little care by physically separating programs and user data on the hard drive. But Linux does not go far enough in protecting the system.

The processor I propose would be programmed once at the factory as a robot that has the ability to learn through its senses only. It will, in essence, have to be taught every task just like a human would. The difference being that it will learn at lightning speed and have perfect recall of every fact, figure, etc. And what it learns (it's memories) is kept in an inaccessible memory store that cannot be connected to via any means; it is only for use by the robots brain. Incoming data is thus kept completely separate and in a format that could never be mistaken for either part of the program or part of the robot's learned behavior. There is no "screwing up the data" as your post implies because human hands will never touch the data.

Your scenario involving a "bad" punched card is just not worth a response other than perhaps: piffle. I notice that the computer program Watson that appeared on Jeopardy didn't run amok and try anything stupid. It performed as it was designed to and it did a darn good job at kicking some human butt.

[jacquelope]

31. And what if the robot learns the wrong kind of information?

Ever heard of the phrase "garbage in, garbage out"? That has nothing to do with altering ROM, which is unalterable, it has to do with the information the system tries to process. You can crash a ROM-based machine. And if human hands never touch the data how does the robot's owners manage the machine at all? Watson on Jeopardy didn't run amok because no one tried to mess with it. You set that thing loose in production mode and I will bet you real money that some group like Anonymous will make machines like that dance. That I can GUARANTEE you.

[txlibdem]

32. A person cannot argue with logic like that

If a robot needs to be shown all knowledge that it will base it's occupation upon it would be given such data only by the manufacturer. The "base code" that determines the personality and behavior patterns of the robot would be "hard wired" into the chips and therefore unchangeable. This base code includes The Three Laws of Robotics as stated in a post above. And if a person tries to tell the robot to commit a crime or harm a person or property, the robot will evaluate that request as in violation of The Three Laws and will decline to perform that action.

Again, you raise the specter of hackers (Anonymous) and I can guarantee you that they need to have some kind of remote access to the program code of a machine in order to make any changes or gain access to data.

Were someone to gain physical access to the robot and open the case that contains its processor and protected memory then that is a situation that is easily dealt with by tamper evident systems available now. An intelligently designed robotic brain will be unalterable. As I said, it will not be designed by Micro$oft.

[Blue_Tires]

24. After they take our jobs, the robots will come for our women!!

Damn if I sit idly by while that happens!

[txlibdem]

25. I'm not sure you understand the reality of jobs in the US now

You say you want to riot or whatever if the robots take the jobs yet the multinational corporations are shipping your jobs overseas by the thousands and you're doing nothing about it.

As for the robots taking the women... that's a silly post. But the battery operated equipment, on the other hand... :hi: