A Closer Look At NY-9 (TPM)

[chill_wind]

A Closer Look At NY-9

A couple of corrective data points on the NY-9 race, where Democrats seemed primed for a big defeat come Tuesday.

I mentioned yesterday how heavily Democratic this district is. That's true in general. There's a 3:1 Democratic to Republican voter registration there. But Obama only won 55 percent of the vote here in 2008, which is relatively low for a NYC district and was actually worse than John Kerry performed there in 2004. So it's not one of those hardcore Democratic havens in the city. That doesn't mean Democrats should lose there, but it does make it somewhat more susceptible to the prevailing political climate.

The second data point comes from a closer look at the polling numbers coming out of the district. Respondents there overwhelmingly think the country is on the wrong track, and Obama's approval ratings are in the tank. "It's hard for Democrats to win open seat races in places where Obama's that unpopular," PPP polling director Tom Jensen tells TPM.

The upshot is that while the Democratic candidate is far from the ideal candidate, it would be a mistake to pin the blame for this loss (if it turns out to be a loss) entirely on him. The district is a better bellwether than I realized, and a loss here would paint a very bleak picture for Democrats going into 2012.


— David Kurt

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/09/a_closer_look_at_ny-9.php?ref=fpblg

see also- Why Democrats Are Losing Anthony Weiner’s Seat
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/why-democrats-are-losing-anthony-weiners-seat.php?ref=fpc

[BeyondGeography]

1. Lots of older Jews were freaked out by the faux-controversy over Obama's 1967 borders statement

And his low 2008 numbers tell you he was already underperforming in this part of the city. Weiner only beat Turner by 20 points last time around, so this is a more conservative district to begin with. I expect a loss, and I also expect the media to give it a lot more import than it merits. On top of all that, everyone expects this seat to be eliminated anyway by 2012.

[chill_wind]

2. Sez here, though:

But according to the numbers, it may be less of a factor than it seems.

“I don’t see it at all,” Greenberg said, when asked about the “Israel effect.”

Siena asked voters to pick from five options to explain their vote, including the candidate’s party, position on Social Security and Medicare, whether they were endorsed by a trusted source, their position on economic issues, and finally their position on Israel. Only 7% of voters picked Israel, including just 16% of Jewish voters.

That may not be the whole story, however: Weprin’s lead with Jewish voters has collapsed from 21 to 6 in the last month. It’s roughly in line with the total 12% drop among voters overall, but may be more complicated to tease out. Jensen, for his part, doesn’t want to make any conclusions on the Israel issue without seeing more detailed results first.

That's Siena's polling.

Democratic PPP's, FWIW, wants to tie it to more dominant national issues:

But given that Weprin isn’t exactly a larger than life political personality, the latter may be doing plenty to inform voters’ views on the former — Democratic pollster PPP’s field research, still unfinished, is finding that national issues are dominant so far in explaining Democrats’ troubles.

“The eye popping number for me is that we may have Obama’s approval number as low as the 30s,” PPP polling director Tom Jensen told TPM. “It’s hard for Democrats to win open seat races in places where Obama’s that unpopular. Obama’s at 50%, I have no doubt Weprin beats Turner comfortably.”

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/why-democrats-are-losing-anthony-weiners-seat.php?ref=fpc

Whatever the case, the prospects aren't looking good.

[BeyondGeography]

3. I do think it's a factor among others, and, yes, hard to "tease out"

It sure would be nicer to win, if only to avoid the media BS after a loss.

[chill_wind]

4. Elsewhere.. in Nevada

Early voting turnout favors GOP in Nevada special election
By Josh Lederman - 09/09/11 04:19 PM ET

On the last day of early voting in the Nevada House special election, votes already cast showed turnout heavily favoring Republicans in the race between Kate Marshall (D) and Mark Amodei (R).

About three registered Republicans had filled out early ballots for every two registered Democrats, according to state figures reflecting votes cast through Thursday. Almost 70,000 residents had voted early, including more than 8,000 unaffiliated voters.

(snip)

Amodei and Marshall are competing to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) when he was appointed to an open Senate seat. Amodei's campaign has focused on painting Marshall as an Obama clone, while Marshall worked to tie Amodei to Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget that calls for changing Medicare's payment system.

Amodei has benefited from an infusion of hundreds of thousands of dollars from national Republican committees, but Marshall's campaign has largely been left to its own devices.


(more)


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/180681-early-voting-turnout-favors-gop-in-nevada-special-election-


Conservative Groups Spend Big in Nevada Special Election
By Seth Cline on September 2, 2011 10:00 PM

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2011/09/conservative-groups-spend-big-nevada.html

[RBInMaine]

5. This is all about TURNOUT, and with more $ and MANY more boots on the ground, Weprin should win.

In the latest poll, a significant number more EXPECT Weprin to win since he has more money and many more boots on the ground. It is all about TURNOUT.

[Hawkowl]

6. Turnout

Turnout will be Republican hating Obama > Democrats liking Obama. Simple. Obama has alienated too many Democrats trying to appeal to the mythical independents and moderate Republicans.

He's going to take the whole party down with him.

[dennis4868]

7. No, lots of dems...

are voting with the repub because according to them Obama is worse than hitler and hates Israel....seriously, this is what they are saying there...it's bad for us.