Kevin Phillips: How Kerry Can Win (The Nation)

[Jackpine Radical]

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040802&s=phillips

While attempts to harness "Anybody but Bush" psychologies and to attract voters without saying much that is controversial might win Kerry a narrow victory, this strategy would be unlikely to create a framework for successful four- or eight-year governance. Deconstructing the Republican coalition is a better long-term bet, and could be done. The result, however, might be to uncage serious progressive reform.
...
{Lee} Atwater {Nixon strategist & Rove's mentor} observed that "the way to win a presidential election against the Republicans is to develop the class-warfare issue, as Dukakis did at the end. To divide up the have and have-nots."
...
{P}art of the reason for Kerry's--and the Democrats'--failure to capitalize on Bush's weaknesses is that they seem unable to decide between two very different strategies. One might be called the Wall Street strategy, which includes rhetoric about failed policies in Iraq and GOP tax cuts that pander to the rich, but avoids most specifics or bold indictments of Bush failure. Critiques of US economic polarization, NAFTA or globalization are sidestepped, and the example of Clinton-era federal deficit reduction so admired by Wall Street is held up. Indeed, Kerry's demeanor is appropriate to a man married into one of the biggest US corporate fortunes.
...
The alternative--at once bolder and riskier, but with a larger potential electorate--involves targeting the ordinary Republicans who rejected at least one generation of Bushes to back Perot or McCain. These voters--not a few thousand elites but millions of the rank and file--are concentrated in the middle-class precincts of swing states like Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado and the Pacific Coast.
...
To win this election decisively, John Kerry is going to have to feel the same outrage that Howard Dean felt, and he's going to have to express some of it with the same merciless candor that the Republican dissidents have employed against two generations of Bushes. In today's circumstances of a nation on the wrong track, most swing voters--especially wavering GOP men who grew up on John Wayne movies--will not be content with pablum.

To take it a step further, I think that the message that would attract disenchanted Republicans is pretty much the same one that would energize the traditional Dem vote; namely, health care, jobs, a firm plan to get out of Iraq, budget sanity, and the repeal of the free ride for the rich.

Screw the DLC.

1. I've been saying this for years

most swing voters--especially wavering GOP men who grew up on John Wayne movies--will not be content with pablum.

His other stuff is on target also in my opinion.

[mhr]

2. Damn Right It Is Class Warfare - Let The Wars Begin!

Never Forget The Face Of American Fascism'THIS IS NO DIFFERENT THAN WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SKULL & BONES INITIATION...I'M TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE HAVING A GOOD TIME. THESE PEOPLE -- YOU EVER HEARD OF EMOTIONAL RELEASE? YOU EVER HEARD OF NEEDING TO BLOW SOME STEAM OFF?'

[Leilani]

3. Really good article from a great strategist!

I hope Kerry & all his folks read this.

[JDPriestly]

5. Bush declared the class war

by running up huge deficits in order to give tax cuts to the rich. The evidence for this is in Suskind, "The Price of Loyalty." That book is definitely worth reading.

[JDPriestly]

6. Kick!

We have to make Kerry aware of this problem. After all, he may not notice how bad it is, since his investment income flows in, regardless of whether products are produced or the work is done in China or India or here. But, our income stops altogether or flows in much more slowly at lower wages when jobs are exported and products are imported.

The growth of world trade and the export of American jobs and industry has to be stopped or at least slowed. If America is to survive and not descend into chaos and widespread poverty, the system has to compensate American workers for the loss of jobs, income and quality of life they are experiencing. The current situation just cannot go on because if it does, our nation will not be able to afford the barest necessities, much less defense, schools, health care, etc. The tax revenue just won't be there.

Already, it appears that our defense industry is dependent on selling to foreign countries and getting products from foreign countries to keep alive. Sorry, Bush, but pessimism is justified here. We are headed toward a major national catastrophe unless our economy is turned around to give better economic opportunities to American workers.

If Kerry does not respond to this very strongly, some right-wing fanatic will. That is how Hitler got into power -- he rode on waves of economic discontent.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Don't you wish you could MAKE John Kerry read this?

It makes so damned much sense. Its right there for the taking...

[teryang]

7. The kind of republicans this article addresses

...are already deciding not to vote for Bush. Fahrenheit 911 has a lot to do with it.

[IrateCitizen]

8. That's an dangerously simplistic analysis

It's undeniable that F9/11 will have an effect on the upcoming election. But you need to look at the NUMBERS that Phillips provides for a vote swing that would be necessary to cause a real electoral shift -- peeling off around 15% of the Republican vote.

F9/11 will peel off probably around 2-3% of the Republican vote, tops.

If Kerry is really interested in capitalizing on the day and forcing a real electoral shift, Phillips correctly argues that he has to be BOLD. He has to be willing to eschew the cautious insider advice of the likes of Robert Rubin and those who simply want to see Wall St. kept happy, and be willing to put forth initiatives and ideas aimed at working and middle class Americans.

If he's interested in coming anywhere close to that 15%, that's what he has to do. And if he does it, he can get the moderate Republicans / Reagan Democrats in states like OH, MO, WV, PA, etc. -- the voters that will give him a REAL swing.

Otherwise, he will slide into office under the thinnest of margins, owing his election to an anti-Bush backlash rather than any kind of excitement about John Kerry. And in doing so, he'll be largely powerless to stop any of the continual slide to the right and corporate rule in this country. He needs a bold mandate to truly reverse the course.

[teryang]

9. It's an observation not an analysis

Phillips is one of my favorite analysts.

Kerry has to win first. The most important thing for him to do was to assemble a legal team and get injunctions in critical states to stop electronic voting. He's waited too long. So he may lose.

That's my analysis.

[yellowcanine]

10. At the least, Kerry needs to run an ad showing shrub's infamous "you are

the haves and the have mores. Some call you the elite. I call you my base. Heh, heh, heh." That ad should run for several weeks in all of the battleground states and the weak Bush states - Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Colorado, Arizona. If the ad is well done it could be a devastating followup to the damage done by F911, imo.

[jbfam4]

11. Good idea

Also include his remark that he would be humble regarding foreign policy and show all his tough talk quotes.

[GOPFighter]

12. Unfortunately,....

...ideas like this scare the sh*t out of the Democratic Party. The party leadership, and I presume that includes Kerry, don't really want a big change in the way things are done in this country, they just want the Democrats to be the beneficiaries.

What the Dem party leaders don't recognize is the Howard Dean uncaged the tiger, that there are a growing number of liberals who have been energized and are getting organized.

We are just now beginning to stop the Democratic party's rightward slide. The party leaders are are going to be hard pressed to overcome our energy.