Realpolitik drama unfolds in the South China Sea

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http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/eo20111130a1.html

HONOLULU — Observing the diplomatic maneuvering over the South China Sea issues in the runup to and including the July and November Bali summits was like watching a multi-act Shakespearian play unfold. The main protagonist was China, which was bedeviled by several nymphs — the counter claimants to the South China Sea islands and maritime space.

The critical scenes took place in Bali. First in July the main protagonist — China — met with all the nymphs (ASEAN). Then in the November meetings a second protagonist was introduced — the United States.

In the first act, China and ASEAN were able to compromise on a set of guidelines for implementing the ASEAN-China Declaration on Conduct in the South China Sea. Although it was weak, leaking and lacking specifics, its agreement was considered a diplomatic success. And then ASEAN wanted to work on a consensus draft of principles for a binding code of conduct. But alas, China did not think the timing was "appropriate" so ASEAN forged ahead on its own.

Meanwhile, China maintained — with some indignance — that it should not have to negotiate with countries that do not even have claims in the area like Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Singapore and Thailand. Naturally it prefers bilateral negotiations with its fellow claimants — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — which it can dominate in one on one session.