What next for Pakistan's President Zardari?

[CHIMO]

The war in Afghanistan, as I argued a decade ago, was a potential threat to the stability of the system in Pakistan. Events have long confirmed this view. The US raid on a Pakistan border position a few weeks ago that killed 24 soldiers was only the latest disaster. Motives for the attack remain a mystery but its impact is not. It will create further divisions within the military, further weaken the venal regime of president Asif Ali Zardari, strengthen religious militants and make the US even more hated than it already is in Pakistan.

Was it intended as a provocation? Is Barack Obama seriously thinking of unleashing a civil war in an already battered country? Some commentators in Islamabad are arguing this but it's unlikely that Nato troops will occupy Pakistan. The death of soldiers stirred the mind of the nation to new activity. "Save us from our friends" is a growing sentiment even within the ruling elite.

The overall effect has been a growth of dissent within the military and the uncovering of related scandals. It was one of these, described as "memogate", that may have led a frightened President Zardari to flee the country to Dubai, supposedly for health reasons. Though why Pakistani doctors in the country are considered inferior to their kin in the Gulf is a question posed by many in the country. Army doctors who, according to some reports, did examine him said he was "fine". A US government official is reported to have said that Zardari was "incoherent" when he spoke with Obama last weekend. His own official admitted he was unfocused. This too is nothing new.

What of "memogate"? One of Zardari and his late wife's trusted bagmen in Washington, Husain Haqqani, has been forced to resign. Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the US, appears to have been caught red-handed: he allegedly asked Mansoor Ijaz, a multimillionaire close to the US defence establishment, to carry a message to Admiral Mike Mullen pleading for help against the Pakistani military and offering in return to disband the Haqqani network and parts of the security service, the ISI, and carry out all US instructions, including the possibility of de-nuclearising the state.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/07/memogate-pakistans-terrible-mess