Americans living on borrowed time
In the first of a three-part series Larry Elliott and David Teather explore the economic recovery that never was
Monday October 25, 2004
The Guardian
Oil prices are heading for $60 a barrel. Motorists in the United States are getting their heads round the idea of paying $2 for a gallon of gas. Eighteen months after the ousting of Saddam Hussein was supposed to put the skids under the cost of crude, you might imagine America's reliance on imported fuel would be a crucial issue in the race for the White House. It isn't. America is racking up trade deficits of $50bn a month and anger is growing out in the industrial heartlands about China's refusal to revalue its currency. Yet trade policy is a peripheral issue as George Bush and John Kerry enter the last week of campaigning.
You have to go back as far as Herbert Hoover to find a president with a worse record on jobs than the incumbent and poverty is on the increase in the world's largest economy. The stock market, which boomed under Clinton, suffered under Bush as a result of the dotcom boom's collapse, recession and a string of corporate scandals, as the chart above shows. Yet, if you listen to the candidates and monitor the media, jobs are not the real issue.
What matters in this election is the fitness or otherwise of Bush or Kerry to be commander in chief. It is about who has the "right stuff", who can best defend the American homeland from terrorism, who can be trusted with national security.
By his attacks on Kerry's integrity, Bush has avoided the problem his father faced when Bill Clinton persuaded voters that the economy was what mattered, not the victory over Saddam in the first Gulf war. If there was ever an election where "it's the economy, stupid" mattered, then this should be it. But that is not the case. As Mark Granakis, a branch president of the steelworkers' union in Ohio, puts it: "Franklin Roosevelt told us the only thing we had to fear was fear itself. This president says: 'Be afraid'."
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1335120,00.html