This comes from today's New York Times:
"In a fundamental reassessment of presidential political strategy, White House and Democratic Party officials say that turning out core Republican and Democratic voters will be more critical to next year's election than winning independent voters, long a prime target in national campaigns."
snip
"This is the latest chapter of a shift that became particularly vivid after the 2000 presidential election, which White House officials believe Mr. Bush
I don't agree with the "nearly lost" crack in the paragraph above, but I do think that voter turnout will be a key in this election. Read the entire article at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/01/politics/01VOTE.html?pagewanted=1&th