[PINR] 03 December 2004: Romania: Europe's New 'Sick Man'

[nosmokes]

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
http://www.pinr.com
[e-mail]
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03 December 2004
For an important analysis discussing the background of what has occurred in Ukraine, visit the following article:

"Ukrainian Presidential Elections: To East or West?"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=236

Also, to see why Iran complied with the European Union, visit the following article:

"Tehran Buys Itself More Time from U.S. Pressure"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=238

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Romania: Europe's New 'Sick Man'
Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
http://www.pinr.com
On November 28, Romania held general elections for its presidency and parliament. On November 29, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso announced that the European Union intends to sign an accession agreement with Romania in 2005 that would put the country on track to full membership in 2007. The two events are closely linked; the major issue in the electoral campaign concerned which of the two major candidates was best equipped to lead Romania into Europe successfully.
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Social Division and Political Formations

As in all lagging states that are transitioning from state-dominated or relatively statist economies to globalized capitalism, Romania is characterized by a deep social division between those who believe that their lives will improve by integrating into the new competitive arena and those who fear -- often with good reason -- that they will not be able to compete successfully. The same divide is present in more economically advanced states, but, in them, the sector of the population that fears that it will be left behind by globalization is relatively small, allowing politics to be based on multiple issues, of which the globalization divide is one among many. Lagging states do not have that luxury and their societies tend to become polarized along the lines of would-be haves and anxious have-nots.
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The Campaign and the Election

Accession to the E.U. dominates the Romanian public mind to the exclusion of nearly every other issue, corruption being the only exception. Romanian youth, in particular, see E.U. membership for their country as the vehicle for opening their horizons to a wider and better world of greater opportunity, or at least as an opportunity to escape the restrictions and disadvantages of their present lives. The urban middle class looks forward to a Western lifestyle and economic improvement through E.U. aid and business investment. Those who stand to lose (excepting the ultra-nationalists) understand that Romania has no choice but to try to seek shelter under the European umbrella, but want the process to be cushioned for them.
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Conclusion

More a geostrategic acquisition than a full partner, Romania bids fair to become the new "sick man of Europe" inside the E.U. Whether the presidential runoff yields a continuation of the P.S.D.'s oligarchical rule or the efforts at reform pledged by the Liberal-Democratic alliance, the country will remain impoverished, socially divided and prone to corruption, with a weak minority government, since a coalition with the ultra-nationalists is anathema to Europe. The possibility of a crisis caused by renewed claims of serious election fraud looms, but what is more likely is a continuation of stumbling along and delayed and watered-down compliance with E.U. demands. Accession remains the most likely outcome, but even it is not certain.
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Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein

complete report at http://www.pinr.com
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