From the Guardian
Unlimited (UK)
Dated Wednesday December 29
Why this year has taught me to be more of a cynic
I didn't predict it, but the theme of 2004 was unaccountability
By Jonathan Freedland
Schools do it, hospitals do it, even FTSE-listed companies do it. So let's do it, let's see how we've done. After all, this is the age of the performance assessment review and this column is surely not immune. We're happy enough to dish it out on these pages, so we can hardly object if the harsh light of scrutiny is turned on ourselves, just this once.
As it happens, I have an easy mechanism in place for some searching self-assessment. A year ago I set out a clutch of "reckless predictions" for 2004. Flush with the success of a similar effort 12 months earlier - in which each one of my guesses came true - I thought I would have another go. To look back at the list now is to have a handy, at-a-glance guide to where I hit the bullseye - and where the dart plunged deep into my own foot.
I began with the Hutton report, which was then just a few weeks away. Rightly, I predicted that there would be no "killer sentence" accusing Tony Blair of leading the country falsely to war, and that the prime minister would survive. I also guessed that his lordship would fault the BBC for its sloppy editorial processes and the dual role of its board of governors . . . .
Next was the US election. I guessed the final result right - predicting that Bush would win comfortably - but got the other half of the race badly wrong. I tipped the former Vermont governor Howard Dean to be the Democratic nominee, failing even to mention John Kerry.
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