http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0501020007jan02,1,1251749.story?coll=chi-business-hedDeficits a growing danger
How long will global investors finance U.S. spending?
By Michael Oneal
Tribune staff reporter
Published January 2, 2005
On the face of it, 2005 is shaping up to be a pretty good year for the economy.
SNIP
The danger is that the gradual falloff in the dollar's value could turn into a plunge if foreign governments get skittish about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy. That would put heavy upward pressure on interest rates, which could cause the economy to stall. It would also threaten the value of the housing and stock investments that have increasingly become the backbone of U.S. consumer finances.
Coordination expected
Since a slumping U.S. economy is not in anybody's interest, most experts expect economic policy officials around the world to seek ways to keep the situation stable by coordinating efforts to support the dollar if need be.
But economists like Harris say the Bush administration and Congress will have to show that they are serious about cutting the federal deficit. That explains why the recently completed 2005 federal budget reduces funding for everything from Pell grants to the National Science Foundation. It also explains the growing pressure on President Bush to explain more clearly how he intends to pay for things like Social Security and tax reform.
"How has Social Security been sold?" asks Harris. "They've said, `We'll give you control.' But they haven't talked about cutting benefits."
The economy may keep growing in 2005. But it also may turn out to be the year the U.S. begins to pay the piper.