Re: Peak Oil and the destruction of our civilization.

[dawgman]

Is there anything that can be done to stop the complete destruction of our way of life. Do nearly 6 billion people HAVE to die? Is it really to late to find alternatives before the "die off" begins?

Now I know "peak oil" is inevitable. But, are all of the calamitous events that are being predicted inevitable?

[alfredo]

1. yep

[dawgman]

2. So what do you do? Do a bunch of Coke and party your ass off for the

last few years of existence? And if they are inevitable what's the point of politics?

[alfredo]

26. Learn how to live independently. Learn how to obtain the basics.

Fight fear with knowledge.

[veggiemama]

46. Read Daniel Quinn's "Ishmael" books . . .

Our "civilization" was doomed from its inception. Another world is possible! Here's a sample of what Quinn has to say:

http://www.eces.org/articles/000147.php

[cthrumatrix]

41. hopefully...the O'Neill revalation will "open some eyes" to peak oil and

the desire for "control"

[cthrumatrix]

42. a fact WE see ...and one the MEDIA won't share.... this is important since

we need to hold people accoutable for renewable energy sources...and simple things like demanding "more economical cars --- better gas mileage"...using alternate energy sources...etc.

But since corporation control our destiny...and own the politicians and media..we're stuck.

[ramapo]

3. I thought I was a pessimist

Just cause we're past peak oil doesn't mean we're going to die. We just might not live so easily.

A large portion of those 6 billion people won't even much miss the oil.

[dawgman]

5. well who knows if we are past peak oil?

How will we feed 6 billion people without the fuel to run the refrigeration and tractors and the petroleum to make the pesticides and fertilizer? Hell, no plastics, think about what this joint would be like with NO plastics.

I don't necessarily buy into the idea that we are all doomed, but if we don't hurry up and find alternatives to oil and Nat Gas our dependence on them WILL be our undoing.

[Solomon]

44. Apparently you all missed the news. Not to worry. We'll find more

oil on the moon and mars. Heck, we got eight fucking planets and tens of moons to drill on. No sweat. B-)

[Minstrel Boy]

8. oil doesn't just fuel SUVs.

It transports our food, it warms our homes. Cheap oil is the stuff of civilization. (Natural gas? That's peaking, too.)

It's an unprecedented energy crisis, and it accounts in large part for America's unprecedented political crisis.

Read The Party's Over, by Richard Heinberg. And some important links:

"World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge" by Richard Duncan.
http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/road2olduvai.pdf

"Olduvai Cliff Revisited - The Olduvai Cliff Event: ca. 2007"
http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_r_olduvai_cliff_revisited.htm

"THE BUSH/CHENEY ENERGY STRATEGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. FOREIGN AND MILITARY POLICY"
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4458.htm

"The Fuel That Fires Political Hotspots" by Colin Campbell
http://www.bpamoco.org.uk/industry/02-05-17thes.htm

"THE ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL&GAS
http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/

http://www.dieoff.com/

[TennesseeWalker]

35. "The Party's Over"

One of the most important books I've ever read. Please visit www.museletter.com. It explains a lot about what's happening right now. This will soon become the most important issue of our times. WE will experience Peak Oil and the scaling down of the industrial civilization we've built.

[the_real_38]

38. dude, thanks for the links...

... I'm writing for a 'zine here in Columbia(SC) on peak oil, and these are great reference materials.

[HereSince1628]

4. Peak oil is part of a conspiracy by Cheney

He has fingers on western oil shale and coal.

Amurika:
Oh, terribly polluted skies
now wasted fields, once grain.
For flat-topped mountains travesty
above eroded plains

Amurika Amurika
We wasted lives on thee
They stole yer goods, republikuds
From sea to shining sea.

[dawgman]

6. what do you mean a "conspiracy by Cheney"?

We WILL run out of fossil fuels. What I want to know is what will or maybe more appropriately what CAN happen after it starts to happen?

[HereSince1628]

9. Oil will/or has peaked, Cheney is conspiring to profit in that.

Bush/Cheney came in to office pushing more coal, more nukes.

Unfortunately, both believe that the US needs to buy time to adjust by controling every major oil field on the planet.

[dawgman]

12. Gotcha, thanks for the clarification,

I thought you were trying to say that because of Cheney's energy connections he was artificially trying to prop up the price of oil by clandestinely (is that a word, he wonders to himself) starting rumors of its scarcity.

[lostnfound]

40. In Iraq, oil production costs $1 per barrel vs $10 per barrel in US

Think of the difference that makes in return-on-investment.

That figure is from a Reuters article published in the Houston Chronicle last year.

[DrWeird]

7. Ehh, we'll just have nuclear reactors everywhere.

Big ass breeder reactors out in the desert, everything electrical. Could do it with windpower too, but that would make to much sense.

[dawgman]

10. The world is moving away from Nuke reactors at the rate the y should

be moving away from fossil fuels. And everything I have been able to discern regarding the prospect of wind as energy is that it cannot be done in time on the scale that would be needed and is really only good in typically windy areas, high plains and coast lines.

[DrWeird]

11. So somebody's actually crunched the numbers?

The time it will take to build an infrastructure for a non petroleum based energy source is greater than the time it takes to run out of oil?

Because if it is I'm going to stock up on shot guns, black trans ams, and australian sheep dogs. Not a bad way to go out, I guess.

[dawgman]

14. It all depends on who you ask.

That's actually why I started the thread, to see what research others had read. It is pretty easy to find doom and gloom prognostications, not so easy to find any positive ones.

[BeFree]

13. Electric airplanes?

Electric ships?
Wont the cords get all tangled up?

The point is that oil is the most versatile and easy to acquire energy material we will ever know. When it's gone, nothing will be the same. In the meantime, our role in this matter is to ensure our humanity stays intact. Otherwise most of humanity will be in grave trouble. Indeed it may be too late to avert it, especially since we ain't doing jack about it even now.

[HereSince1628]

16. Electric airplanes....good question...

I wonder the weight to power ratio is for fuel cells.

There are already electric motors capable of driving propellers

[dawgman]

17. does the electricity come from the nuclear reactors or the solar panels or

the wind? And how does one engineer the plane to be light enough for flight without the use of plastics?

[HereSince1628]

18. I was wondering about hydrogen fuel cells...

what is their weight to power ratio? Their efficiency is similar to internal combustion engines, but I don't know what they weigh--that would have obvious importance to aircraft.

There ARE solar powered planes, though none of them are the sort of thing use for commerce. Yes the bodies are plastics/composites.

It is possible to produce molecules like those found in petroleum from smaller organic molecules...so for things were its worth the cost, I expect the chemical industry could produce the materials necessary even if there wasn't a traditional petroleum industry. My guess is they would use coal or nuclear plants for power to do that.

[BeFree]

20. Fuel cells

Are huge battery like appliances. They wouldn't work in commercial airplanes and they still require a fuel to make them work. The power demands of an airplane at takeoff make fuel cells unusable.

The point is that LIFE as we know it will be substantially altered. There is no way to escape that... What we can do is begin making sure most humans do not greatly suffer through the coming changes. That is the best we can do.

[dawgman]

21. As of right now, hydrogen fuel cells actually consume more fuel than

they produce. The energy spent to capture the hydrogen is more than can be produced by the hydrogen.

[HereSince1628]

22. Fuel production isn't really the issue, if the fuel/power system

is light enough to fly and produces enough power, you can have a plane that doesn't run on kerosene.

I am also quite sure that you could have internal combustion engines on airplanes running on alcohol produced from biomass. Is alcohol conversion terrifically efficient? Well, no, but if it were the only fuel possible it could be done. If you wanted airplanes badly enough the cost wouldnt stand in the way.

BTW, the production of fossil hydrocarbons didn't nearly capture energy equal to the sunlight that produced the biomass. Check out the energy-systems section of an intro ecology text. The tiny amount of solar energy that gets turned into net primary productivity is remarkable.

[starroute]

45. Think dirigibles and computerized sailing ships

There was speculation along these lines during the energy crisis of the 70's, and it even started showing up in a few science fiction stories. It looks just as viable to me now as it did then.

The clipper ships of the early 1800's represented a magnificantly advanced technology that was back-burnered when steamships replaced them. But with computers controlling the sails -- plus weather satellites and GPS -- futuristic sailing vessels could be faster, more efficient, and in need of far smaller crews. They might not get you across the Atlantic in a few hours, but they would be just fine for hauling cargo.

Same thing for huge, cargo-hauling, solar-powered dirigibles -- they might be slower than we're used to, but they'd get the job done.

It would not be a bad thing for people and cargo to stop shuttling round the globe as readily as they do now. There was a thread a day or two ago on the idea that if countries were forced to rely more on their own goods and services, the race to the bottom would be stymied and the entire world would be more prosperous. With less travel, there would also be less risk of world-wide pandemics, invasive species driving local plants and animals into extinction, and any number of other undesirable side-effects.

I would actively like to see a world in which we stopped devoting scarce resources to moving large physical objects from place to place and focused instead on moving small things (like electrons) and on building an information-based global society.


On edit:

I just did some searching and found that there is one cruise line, Windstar, which uses computerized-sailing ships, built in France in the 1980's. "In late 1986, the first commercial sailing vessel built in 60 years slipped out of a French dry-dock in Le Havre. Although the towering sails echoed a bygone era of explorers, the msy Wind Star, with its sleek lines and computerized controls, was revolutionary in concept and design. Windstar's ships are officially masted-sail-yachts (msy), but the designation belies the vessels unique rigging. Unfurling in two minutes at the push of a button, billowing white sails reach to the sky. All functions are operated from the bridge by computer micro-chips and navigational devices." http://www.cruiseplanners.com/?page=displayline&lineid=578

I also found a page of speculation on "Kite Tugs." http://www.dcss.org/speedsl/KiteTugs.html It still looks pretty half-baked, but as the cost of fuel goes up, the attraction of investing in developing ideas like these will increase.

[mhr]

15. Peak Oil Links

Websites of interest include:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
http://www.asponews.org
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/
http://www.oilanalytics.org/
http://www.greatchange.org/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
http://www.after-oil.co.uk/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://hubbert.mines.edu
http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Energy Resources
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Alas Babylon
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/

Running on Empty
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/

[Minstrel Boy]

19. Thanks for the links, mhr.

Oil's peaking. Now, when will people notice? And how steep is the slope on the downside of the curve?

[brokensymmetry]

23. Soon.

Now, when will people notice?

Soon, I think. In three years at most, probably a whole lot less.

And how steep is the slope on the downside of the curve?

I suspect it will be distressingly steep.

Has anyone else been watching the runup in oil stocks over the past 5 years or so? A portfolio of same would have more than doubled. And whatever one thinks of Wall-Streeters, they are certainly sincere with their money.

And it will be steep because China is starting to expand and use energy. A billion people moving into a heavily industrial level of development, with plenty of personal automobiles will have a notable effect on prices and consumption of the remaining supplies.

The next decade or so should be interesting.

[dawgman]

33. there was an interesting thread in LBN the other day about the airline i

industry accusing the US govt of buying huge amounts of oil for the reserve thus keeping the price of oil artificially high and creating an oil drought.

If I put my tinfoil hat on does this incident become anecdotal evidence of the MIC beginning to hoard oil because they know that soon the world will begin the sharp downswing in production?

[brokensymmetry]

39. Maybe not tinfoil.

Hoarding some reserves might be a really good idea for the US Government. As a subsequent poster points out, we won't suddenly hit the wall - but prices are likely to escalate, perhaps sharply and quickly.

And there is another little issue. Now that the Middle East has been thoroughly stirred up...and the South Americans are ever less fond of us ...and Indonesia isn't particularly stable...the flow of oil could be disrupted suddenly.

I remember a small snowstorm we had here some years ago. Snow was on the ground for all of two days, but the grocery stores were nearly cleaned out. If a disruption of oil supplies occurs, then food hoarding is almost a certainty...which creates temporary shortages...which puts people in a nasty mood...:tinfoilhat:

[dawgman]

49. Gov't hoarding.

"Hoarding some reserves might be a really good idea for the US Government."

This would only be good if the hoarded reserves are used to support the US agricultural system as it is eased into a new energy source.

This would NOT be good if it is used as military fuel to grab what few remaining oil fields are left.

Unfortunately I think that the latter option is the more likely scenario.

[Silverhair]

24. Why I'm not worried about peak oil.

It won't happen instantly. It won't be like ramming into a wall. Today plenty of oil, tomorrow none. It will be an increasing pressure and the free market will respond with increasing prices. (Law of supply and demand.) The increased value of energy will act as a spur to PRIVATE alternative energy development.

And example of this is the first Thermal Depolymerizarion plant that has recently gone on line in Carthage, MO. It turns organic waste into oil at a high level of efficiency. When combined with the many other methods of alternate energy we will do well.

My fear is actually too much gov't help. Gov'ts tend to stifle innovation as they ALWAYS invest in yesterday's technology. It doesn't matter if the gov't is Dem or Rep, that is what gov'ts do.

[drdigi420]

25. not if we re-legalize hemp

hemp can replace petroleum in almost every product

[Beaker]

37. hemp oil is a replenishable resource-

the day will come soon.

[TexasMexican]

27. Lots of (nuclear and fusion reactors) + (corn oil in diesel engines) = OK

Pretty much most stuff will have to be electric.

We could probably still power diesel vehicles using biodiesel.

Aircraft will have to revert back to props, either electric planes of some sort or prop diesels. I dont think biodiesel can be used as a jet fuel (but maybe we will figure something out).

The sooner we start switching over the better.

I would rather save that petro for our military jets in the future, because if we have to go back to using prop planes there goes our tech advantage in the air, which is pretty much our only advantage.

[treepig]

48. biodiesel blended jet fuel could prolong current jet fuel supplies

plus be good for the environment:


Cleaner, greener jet fuels made from formulas that contain part soybean oil could clean up the air and give added profits to the nation's 400,000 soybean growers.

Related Resources
• Biomass Index
Now that biodiesel fuel is being used in ground transportation, research efforts at the National Center for Agricultural Utilization Research in Peoria, Illinois, are helping lay the groundwork for new, winterized formulas of jet fuel blended with esters of soybean oil.

With winterization processing, biodiesel fuel can be safely blended with jet fuel used in commercial and military aircraft. ARS chemical engineer Robert O. Dunn found that small amounts of methyl soyate (SME)—esters from fatty acids of soybean oil—could be blended with jet fuel (JP-8) with little or no effect on aircraft operation, based on established jet fuel specifications.

http://greennature.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=103&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

Dunn has developed a three-step winterization process for biodiesel fuel that involves mixing in additives, chilling the fuel, and filtering out solids. In laboratory tests, researchers have produced biodiesel fuels capable of starting engines at temperatures as low as 5ºF, making them comparable to petroleum-based diesel fuels.

In laboratory tests, Dunn checked winterized blends having between 10 and 30 percent methyl soyate (SME) by volume to determine their compatibility with JP-8 and tested the fuels under cold temperatures. Using unwinterized biodiesel fuel blends could mean limiting the ability of aircraft to fly at high altitudes, where cold temperatures can cause crystal formation, which blocks fuel filters and plugs fuel lines.

[number6]

28. enjoy the last few days of gasoline power ...

:):nuke::(

[T Bone]

29. what if we connected all the health club exercise equipment to generators?

that would be a start to replace some of the energy.

[Granite]

30. 3 interesting scenarios when we reach peak

according to a report titled, "The Heart of the Matter":

1 - National profiteering
2 - Profiteering by war
3 - Consumer restraint

The first two obviously have both short and long term negatives. What are the chances that #3 is likely?

Maybe those that made the case that Iraq was truly a war for oil (see #2 above) weren't the nutcases the RW media portrayed them to be. Who knew? :shrug:

(on Edit: "consumer constraint" changed to "consumer restraint")

[rman]

47. 1 en 2 are taking place now,

so we have reached the peak already.
now waiting for decline.

oil VIPS speak of "increasingly unforgiving production results"
http://www.peakoil.net/

My guess is that bush*/neocons/global elite want to hurry the peak.
What's with B* giving businesses a tax break for buying a SUV? Stimulate consumption of oil.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

54. There's a fourth option

Consumer restraint facilitated by government policies.

Since moving to Minneapolis, I've gotten a real feel for how our infrastructure forces people to drive.

We've known for years that the oil won't last forever. If we'd had smarter presidents and legislators, we would have taken money out of the Pentagon budget to 1) build comprehensive mass transit systems in every major city, 2) discourage sprawl through taxing and zoning mechanisms, 3) require all new housing developments to be within walking/biking distance of stores and services, 4) build high-speed rail within each region of the country to eliminate the need for short-haul plane flights, 5) subsidize research in making replacements for non-fuel petroleum products, such as plastics and synthetic fibres, 6) update the dirigible (the Hindenberg burned because of a flammable coating, not because of any other safety problems) for intercontinental travel.

Until then, it will be mighty hard for consumers to be "restrained" on their own.

[davekriss]

31. An Interesting discussion about peak oil and politics...

An interesting discussion found at www.urban75.con, a Brixton U.K. based board. The thread, "A Petroleum Geologist explains U.S. War Policy", found here:

http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=e786992337d306e90f3f220c6e854bfd&threadid=45251

Worth skimming through if you are interested in the subject matter.

[Beam Me Up]

32. thanks, interesting link n/t

[slor]

34. I thought the Germans had...

synthetic oil during WWII. I know they did not have enough to fuel their war machine, but they may have been able to fuel a more peaceful economy. In any event, this is why bush has got to go, and why we must push the new prez, on a W.P.A inspired construction effort to build solar,wind, and any other enviro-friendly technology that exists. We can put people back to work, and reverse some of damage.

36. Check out my web site for recent news on SHELL OIL

In the right sidebar, notice the one story yesterday I found in the UK news about how Shell Oil suddently has 20 percent less oil in reserve than they claimed they did!

This story wasn't carried in the US news, at least prominently.

[PATRICK]

43. the cold logic

is there for everyone, including the power maniacs who shrug and just manipulate it as another "opportunity" to game, people whose priorities are totally blind to responsibility to humankind or the lives of billions. Even without the recent madness oil is not a replenishable resource. Oil would still be a great benefit or necessity for an eon if shepherded wisely.

Without the crooks and the general waste it would still be a crisis, if only for the gradual release of all the heat and material back into the biosphere, which the tanked thinkers of the right dimly, simplistically and dumbly herald as the tropical paradising of the planet.

Dying out is the fate of any non-intelligent, too-successful species. Except that the dumb ones usually are given a second chance of reestablishing a niche in a new balance. Our ant-science Wild Bunch will make this a new adventure in extinction- a laughingstock to all other intelligent life should our ruins( or the "Left Behind!")ever be discovered.

[dawgman]

50. this may be non sequitor but thought it was an interesting coincidence

given the gist of the thread.

"Gas Prices Shoot Up"
http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/11/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes

[dawgman]

51. kick for the person who started another one recently.

[are_we_united_yet]

52. OK folks

How those SUV's sounding now?

[dawgman]

53. it's not just SUV's. Luxury cars that get 6-10 mpg are just as much to

blame. People who would rather turn up the heat that put on a long sleeved shirt. 45 minute hot showers, people with pools being heated year round in their back yards. We are a very wasteful society. It's gonna (already has been?) be the death of our way of life.