THE FUTURE OF LIBERALISM....Yesterday I suggested that liberalism wasn't as dead as conservatives like to pretend it is — it just hasn't made much progress in the past couple of decades. Today I want to follow up on that with some speculation about the future of liberalism, something I first wrote about over a year ago.
My guess is that liberalism is due for a resurgence sometime in the next few years, and for the simplest of reasons: the country has been been on conservative cruise control for the past 20 years and it's time for a change. What kind of change? I don't know, but it's a sure bet that it will be something unexpected — something that will make today's debates about posting the Ten Commandments in city hall seem as archaic as fin de siecle debates about the free coinage of silver. Here's why.
There have been three big progressive waves of the 20th century and each one has been driven by a different idea. The first, roughly coinciding with Woodrow Wilson's presidency, was heavily driven by labor issues: child labor, safe working conditions, unionization, etc. It ended with the business oriented conservatism of the 20s ("the business of America is business").
The second progressive wave began with FDR's election and was mainly driven by the economic issues of the Depression. The old labor issues were still hot buttons, but labor gains were largely being consolidated during the 30s, with the Wagner Act as its last big legislative hurrah. The real issues of the New Deal related to the social safety net, and the signature legislation was Social Security, unemployment compensation, minimum wage laws, and so forth. This second wave ended after World War II when America, once again, took a breather and turned to business as the focus of day to day life ("What's good for America is good for General Motors, and vice versa").
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THE FUTURE OF LIBERALISM