Those Who Know British Politics When Does Blair Meet His Political Maker??

[matcom]

sadly, i know little of British Politics so my question is this:

WHEN is Blair's term up? (up for vote that is)????

i say this because IF there is a shakeup this year (IE Before November '04) and he is ousted (by whatever means) it could be a HUGE black eye for Bush*! no? maybe?

how does it work exactly?

i can't IMAGINE the public giving him a pass but is it possible? is he going to survive his disgrace?

thanks in advance

[legin]

1. I believe Labour

have to call an election in 2005.

Gordon Brown is groomed to be blair's sucessor should blair want to step down but don't expect too much from Brown, I have the feeling (He is in the process of sucking up to corporations at a meeting on entrapreneurship in the near future).

[minto grubb]

2. I will do my best to answer...

I can tell you that Blair is up AFTER Bush, not before. the matter was chewed over in one Brit newspapaer recently. It is a bit far ahead yet, so although a date was given, I did not register it in my memory. 2005 or '06, I think. Certainly not this year, though.
I would not like to put it around that I am an expert commentator, but there is a very low turnout at the polls these days. Like, the apathy candidate has the biggest following. I guess people are cynical about politics. So long as Joe Public can run a car, and go on holiday ( sorry, vacation) abroad, he isn't too bothered who runs the country - they are all the same, really. That seems to be the way people talk in the bars and on the busses.
Will Blair get the boot? My take on it is that he has lied. There were massive, unprecedentedly huge demonstrations and marches against the war in Iraq. they happened in London, liverpool, all the big cities around the UK. I work in the london Underground rail network. I have seen big crowds. Nothing like these, though. I saw people turn up for this one that were not the usual sort of demonstrators you see on every march. No doubt about it, Blair was not popular.
The problem is that there is no credible opposition to him. The Tories (British equivalent to Republicans) are a spent force. Blair has gone so far to the right that he is popular with big business.
Ostensibly, he is a 'Labour' prime minister, but the unions don't like him, but business does.
British workers are better of than they were, most workers are home owners and in white collar ofice jobs. The long term unemployed seldom vote or take n interest in politics.
Put in a nut shell, Blair represents the better off, and the Tories used to. The poor, the marginalised, the unemployed have no one to speak for them. they are not like the middle classes, with their residents associations, PTAs and all the other tools that the well off have at thier disposal. Much as I dislike Blair myself, I don't see anyone offering me an alternative.
Other Brits may differ, but that's my view.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Thank you for your analysis

Does the Liberal Party have any credence any more? I recall reading a while back that it had made a resergence. Do you see it, or another party, taking up the cause of the poor, the marginalised, and the unemployed?

PS-I prefer to call my time off a 'holiday' rather than 'vacation'-English is still spoken in America sometimes!

[legin]

4. Good post minto grubb

re: the Lib-Dems

They were looking quite good a while back, but unfortunaltly very recently seem to be dropping back in the polls, possibly something to do with the change of Tory leader.

[moondust]

5. I'd think this Paul O'Neill story could hurt Blair.

Doesn't it sort of confirm that Tony was either hoodwinked or an active co-conspirator in this Iraq sham?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

6. Blair will likely call an election in the summer of 2005

and he (or Brown) will win it if the alternative is Michael Howard (barring some shockingly huge swing to the Lib-Dems - chance would be a fine thing!)