Bush's big problem in Iraq (no-one is even talking about it)

[fizzana]

The U.S. have said they will cede power on July 1 this year. They can't go back on that without unleashing a shitstorm both here and in Iraq.

Sistani has now said that he demands full elections in choosing the government or he will unleash a shitstorm. The reason he wants a full election is that this is the surest way to Iraq falling under Shi'ite control because of their numeric advantage.

A full one-man-one-vote election in Iraq will seriously jeopardize both the Kurds and the Sunnis positions so a full election will unleash a shitstorm from them.

Either way, major shitstorms will be unleashed with the distinct possibility of the U.S. and our soldiers sitting in the midst of an all-out civil war in Iraq.

This is why Paul Bremer has come running back to Washington and is now desperately trying get the U.N. to step in and clean up this mess.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out, yet none of the media in the U.S. (including those on our side) have even mentioned this little inconvenience. (forgive me if someone has figured this out and I am not aware of it).

To me this looks like a classic Catch 22 situation with no easy solution and a pretty horrendous downside that will undercut any legitimacy to our Iraqi adventure.

[Cha]

1. The Iraqi Invasion was Wrong in the

first place and it will come to no good end.

[wtmusic]

3. Hey zidzi whereya been?

Good to have you back :-)

[wtmusic]

2. There is no way out

I am not by nature a pessimist. But there is no realistic scenario out of the quagmire in Iraq where tens of thousands will not die. :(

[jpgray]

4. Right--it's a mess now or a mess later

I'm not sure which mess of the many we can choose from is best.

[fizzana]

5. By drawing a line in the sand re: a July 1 handover

the Bush administration has almost certainly guaranteed a major disaster. If there is one good thing that will come of this, it's that the July 1 deadline will ensure that the shitstorm will hit in perfect time for the November elections.

[catmandu57]

6. I seriously doubt

that we'll be leaving Iraq 1 July, The UN hasn't made a move to take this mess off the chimp's* hands and he'd have to push a peanut with his nose all the way from DC in order for that irrelevant body to take this lemmon.

[ComerPerro]

7. Looks like more money will disappear from the Pentagon

So Bush can start bribing even more countries to join our "coalition".

[Cat Atomic]

8. That July 1st deadline is

bullshit- it was obvious bullshit when they announced it. I don't know whether they were trying to buy enough time to train an Iraqi army and install a new dictator, or just to placate the American public, or what. But that promise remains bullshit.

The whole point of invading was to establish a strategic foothold in Iraq (and make alot of money at the same time). That's been accomplished, and they're not going to just give that up- no matter what the bodycount happens to be.

[fizzana]

10. The July 1 deadline isn't for pulling the troops out,

just for dissolving the CPA and handing over power to an Iraqui authority.

They have no choice but to do this on July 1. Anything less than that will cause too many problems for Bush, both here and in Iraq.

[JohnOneillsMemory]

18. The 7/1/04 deadline is so the US can go on vacation thinking "all over."

The only reason for this date is so TV Nation can leave school and work for summer vacation with the idea that Iraq has moved on to the next inexorable step in it's liberation.

Then the Repubs can have some troops who've survived and returned home do some parades before the conventions in the fall, call the war over, and put back up the 'Mission Accomplished' banner they bought prematurely.

Marketing...fuck me.

[bigtree]

9. Bush's big problem in Iraq

501 U.S soldiers killed

[amber dog democrat]

11. Time to reap the whirlwind.

There is some serious karma to reckon with steming from the Iraq invasion.
Frankly expect the whole thing to fall apart no matter what the * administration chooses to do.

Maybe that sound I hear is the chickens coming home to roost.
In this case I love being an I told you so.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Their goal is to keep it smooth until election day

They hope it can hold for the 3 months and a few days. If it all goes to hell after election day, he won't care. He'll be moving on to Syria, Cuba or some other 10th rate power.

[Must_B_Free]

13. They obviously need one man

who can bring all the factions together under a secular government.

I wonder who could do that?

[Jacobin]

16. A brutal, tryrannical dictator with the backing of the military?

That kind of ruler could do it.

Gee, maybe that's why we installed Saddam in the first place.

[drscm]

23. I nominate *Bush.

That way, he can be a "uniter and not a divider" over there rather than in our country.

And that way the Iraquis can fight the terra-ist over there rather than our cities.

[Old and In the Way]

14. Bush quandry

How to exit Iraq, but maintain control of the oil and airbases.

I cannot believe that the UN or any individual country will recognize the US right to these assets without authorization by Iraq's governing body. I think the problem has been that they been unsucessful in getting these 2 guarantees from the CPA.

If Bush cannot deliver the oil and the airbases, then the war was a lose/lose/lose/lose proposition for the American people. Billions spent, 500 American lives, thousands of crippling injuries, and the terrorists who committed 9/11 still not brought to justice. And we've sustained a major blackeye my the rest of the world with our unilateral invasion and occupation.

What will be the upside for Dimson? Iraq didn't have WMD, but I got the ruthless dictator that my dad put in power?

[sweetheart]

38. and the end of the BFEE dynasty

The iraq war will end his political career.

I guess the illiterate president ain't never heard of a tar baby... but he's stuck in one now. Its too bad "his war" is also "our" war, but sure as hell, it ain't "my" war... so they can fuck themselves... i'm glad bush is getting screwed... and i'm glad the unilateral policy of theft-war is going down with him.

His mistake was greed, and it is consuming him.

[Bonobo]

15. Exactly why they are now begging the UN to take over!

See other thread on LBN. Basically they asked the UN to take over EVERYTHING with regard to changing govt. after June 30th.

They are deep, deep in it. They know. The UN knows. Sistani knows it. Now if Boutros- Ghali will leave the Dumbya twisting in the wind for a while before (if) he decides to bail him out, then the American people will soon know as well.

[KharmaTrain]

19. Boutros-Ghali? Try Kofi Annan

And, I hope the U.N. drag their feet and stick this regime's nose in this mess.

The Sistani threat is not some "minor snag" as I heard AP report it this morning, but flexing some serious muscle that isn't going to sit well in other parts of the country. Bremmer's stuck in a no-win mess...

Give in to Sistani and face the wrath of the Sunnis (backed by Saudis and other "terrorists") and once again betraying the Kurds (and they're armed as well). Slap down Sistani and the southern part of the country becomes as hot, if not hotter than the Sunni triangle.

Then there's also the lingering effects of special interest groups...from the Halliburtons that know their gravy train is nearing the end of the line and gonna make as much as they can while they can (if they haven't already) and the "politicians" like Chalabi who still have unappropriate influence in this regime.

July 1 is a date on a calendar...supposedly that soverignty will be handed "back" to the Iraqi people (as if we are some scolding parent giving back the car keys)...we're just not certain which Iraqi people yet.

[Bonobo]

22. Ooops, thanks for the correction.

Meant Kofi Annon...

[elfin]

17. But who will know??? The Olympics

will be a huge distraction - especially if there is a terrorist incident - or overwhelming sense there will be an incident to suck up the airwaves - along with Jacko etc.

Or how about a "trial" for Saddam???

[Snappy]

20. July

Will there be a July 4th Celebration in Iraq?

Prediction: Chalabi will assasinated if he isn't outa Iraq soon.

Iraq will explode before Sept.

If the Kurds try to establish a sovereign state in the north, Turkey will send in troops to stop that action. Shi'ites will fight US & UK troops. Sunnis will keep fighting for their piece of realestate and power.

What still amazes me is that these Neo Fascists thought that they could subdue the Iraqis and put in a Colonial Puppet Govt . like the Brits did in 1920. The Iraqis aren't stupid.

[rockymountaindem]

21. I know an Iraqi guy...

He sez the Kurds are "bandits". According to him "why do people think the Kurds are these nice people? All they do is raid and kill people. They're bandits". That may or may not be true, but according to him everyone in Iraq hates everyone else.

All this is going to hit the fan sometime before the election. Rhenquist may as well take out the Bible and swear in the Democratic nominee right after the convention. If I were Bush I'd take that offer and then go hide in Bermuda with my tax-sheltering buddies while Iraq implodes.

BTW, what does this Iraqi say about Bush? "I love George Bush! He helps my country and fucks up America."

[PaDUer]

25. * should be JAILED

mass murder!!

[JCMach1]

24. U.S. troops will be there regardless of what happens

and will be in harm's way.

[PaDUer]

27. Harms way...

our guys are sitting ducks thanks to *..These parents should be pounding on the doors to bring the troops home Yesterday!! Better yet, bring the troops home and let * and gang go to Iraq because I'm sure they'd LOVE to have him and gang face to face!

[imax2268]

30. yup...

I was talking to a girl the other night and she said..."Well, at least all the troops will be home by mid-summer..."...I told her not to bet on it...she didn't quite understand...so I explained it to her that the troops will be there for some time to come...she's now pissed at "W" for supporting him...!

[veracity]

26. problem is they'll spin it either way

The Shia problem was predictable. Everyone who protested the war, knowing the fundamentalist majority would rise from the ashes..knew that this would be a major problem. Except Ahmed Chalabi, the crook whom Wolfowitz used as a major source of information (even though he had not been to Iraq since the mid fifties!).

Now, if the UN comes in, they get the blame for not democratizing the region (a totally impossible task without turning the country back into an Islamist state). If the UN does not come in, they get the blame for not coming in. Bush (uh, Rove) knows how to set up a win win situation. The media will play along. They've played Bush's game all along, and wil contnue to do so. The public at large has no clue as to what is going on. All they know is that Bush is doing a wonderful job. Yeah, right. No matter...it'll spin their way.

[kaitykaity]

28. The Shiites demanding one-person, one-vote

elections, the Kurds blackmail Bush, handing over
Saddam in exchange for promises about and independent
Kurdistan, and a motivated Sunni population who would
be exiles in their own country if the Shiites take
over . . . we're talking full blown civil war.

It's coming, and it's going to be massive.

[Ksec]

29. You got it

The Shiites are gonna blow this thing wide open and the shallow minded think that this is a success. I heard someone say that the reason for no planning on post war Iraq was because it interfered with the rush to war. Guys who are so shallow thinking should under no circumstances be given any kind of leadership or decision making. It always ends in failure.

[grasswire]

31. well, that's true

They had to make the war begin because 1) the French and the Russians were about to finalize oil contracts with Hussein and 2) because the UN inspectors were NOT FINDING ANYTHING despite working harder and harder.

It seems clear that Bushco knew there were no WMD. They KNEW there were no WMD in Iraq. That's why they had to rush.

[kaitykaity]

32. Yeah, I think Saddam switching to the Euro had

something to do with the rush, too.

If you think Iraq is ugly now . . .

[fizzana]

33. The model to look at is Yugoslavia after Tito.

A strongman kept a multi-ethnic country together but as soon as he left all the old animosities came out into the open.

There is every likelihood that the same will happen in Iraq.

[Karenina]

34. Schon unterwegs!.

translation: Already underway.

[Karenina]

35. BINGO!

That conversion sealed his fate.

[Old and In the Way]

36. If they really thought Hussein possessed WMD, would Bush

have gambled a huge American invasion? Pretty damn doubtful. It was precisely because they knew that there were no WMD to worry about, that the invasion was green-lighted.

[fizzana]

37. The LA Times has a good article today on this very issue

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-fg-shiites18jan18,1,3329968.story?coll=la-home-headlines

"BAGHDAD — The Bush administration has been backed into a corner on its political plan for Iraq by unexpectedly strident opposition from Shiite Muslim clerics, who played their trump card last week, calling on their followers to stage mass demonstrations. "

"In the next few days, the administration, along with the U.S.-backed Iraqi Governing Council, plans to craft a new plan for choosing a transitional government that is more satisfactory to all the sects and ethnic groups in the country, including the long-suppressed Shiite majority. But there is every indication that no matter what shape it takes, the proposal could be unacceptable to crucial political players."

This could make the current problems in Iraq look like a picnic.