Electoral Math: Louisiana and North Dakota could mean a win

[alexwcovington]

I've been playing around with some electoral math... all we need is ten more electoral votes than 2000... That means that all we need is Louisiana and a small state like North Dakota!

[ButterflyBlood]

1. we aren't winning North Dakota

I used to live there. Trust me on this one. About as lost a cause as we can get.

[rockymountaindem]

5. Didn't ND go for Gore?

[ButterflyBlood]

9. not even close

Bush 60.66%
Gore 33.06%
Nader 3.29%
Buchanan 2.53%

Hasn't gone to a Democrat since the LBJ landslide of 1964.

[alexwcovington]

17. That was the weakest showing for the GOP ever in ND since LBJ

The tide is moving our direction.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. hardly

Clinton only lost by 7 points in 1996 (a fairly landslide year). But in 1988, Dukakis got 43% to Bush I's 56% despite being trounced nationwide. Carter got 46% in 1976, a decent showing. the state is moving swiftly to the right.

[alexwcovington]

7. You want to keep insulting me and my associates?

You don't think we can swing North Dakota? I must say I'm very hurt by your lack of hope but you'll see the results come November.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. of all small states, why pick one that went to Bush over 60%

and hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964? come on. And no, I don't think we can swing it anymore than we can swing Utah.

[alexwcovington]

13. You're bitter.

Typical defeatist outmigration garbage. I tell you what, if you and everyone like you came back and voted, we would swing things around.

But no. You have no hope for our state and that is the problem. Fine. Move out into Minnesota and the East Coast. But don't complain about the broken things behind you never tried to fix.

[are_we_united_yet]

28. Its good to be positive

but one should also be realistic.

[SmileyBoy]

29. Dean could win Cass County.

He could also carry Grand Forks County if the campaign folks work on it a little.

[ButterflyBlood]

32. Grand Forks might be easier

but neither one would be enough for a win.

[lastliberalintexas]

2. I'd say LA, WV and NH

I'm not sure if we could get North Dakota, but I'm no expert on that state! But I think we could have a very good shot at those 3, esp depending on who our nominee is. And Ohio and Arizona are good possibilities, though I doubt they're as likely pickups as LA and WV.

Personally, I don't think our electoral prospects are all that bad. I'm glad to see someone post something positive for a change! :hi:

[ButterflyBlood]

6. i lived in ND for 18 years

so i might be considered an expert. the odds of the Democrats winning the state are equal to Lyndon LaRouche's of winning the nomination.

[alexwcovington]

8. Stop slandering the Dem-NPL

We can turn things around.

[ButterflyBlood]

12. I see you live there

might I ask where, and give me your strat. I lived in Bismarck and while it was probably considered "liberal" by the rural folk, it was still full of fundie churches and some of the most bigoted letters to the editor i've ever seen. It's also next to Kidder county, which was Buchanan's best county in 2000 where he got almost 10%, and still gave Bush over 60%. you think we can win a state like that?

[alexwcovington]

22. Depends on whether or not you are part of that "we"

I'm from Minot, going to UND right now, and I'm seeing a lot of unrest in the so-called "Bush country."

Progressives are starting to speak aloud again, and this is going to be a big trend. I think we're on the edge of a second Progressive Era here... we just need to go out there and stand on soapboxes and draw the crowds.

[ButterflyBlood]

24. Minot and Grand Forks are too of the most liberal cities in the state

both would be in the top 3, along with Fargo (not counting the Reservations). Unrest against Bush in those areas doesn't mean much going on in the rural parts.

[SmileyBoy]

30. Fargo's the most liberal city in the state.

Lots of college folks (like me) over here. Like I said, Dean or Clark could carry Cass County, which carries around 20 percent of the state's population.

[lastliberalintexas]

16. Don't take it personally

Heck, I acknowledge that Texas is a lost cause, but that doesn't diminish the amount of work that I and my fellow Dems do down here. It's just being realistic!

Course, with our changing demographics, Texas *will* be in play within the decade! We will soon be a majority minority state trending Dem- hence the re-re-districting this past year. Wouldn't want those repubs to have to try and win fair and aquare, now would we?

[alexwcovington]

19. Well, you're sticking around.

People like ButterflyBlood are typical of people leaving North Dakota; they complain about how things are *after* they leave rather than trying to make an actual difference come about.

[ButterflyBlood]

21. No, I complained about things while I was there

and I find it much easier to move to a state with a far more progressive attitude and where I can drive less than an hour and a half to a major metro area that actually has things to do rather than sticking around and spending the energy trying to change things.

[alexwcovington]

23. And you wouldn't like to see the day where we have that in ND?

It doesn't just HAPPEN. It takes effort. Yes, hard work, for a long time, and it's not going to be encouraging for a while. But progress is inevitable, even here. If we work at it, it can happen.

It's not just politics. It's "things to do" as well. The reason why there "isn't anything to do" is because nobody is trying to pull those things together.

We need some initiative here. We can make things turn around.

What line of work do you plan to go into? And how could you possibly do that in North Dakota? And what other problems do you see North Dakota as needing to fix?

Ask yourself these questions. We truly need change here, and the only way to do that is by changing the mindsets of both the residents and the expatriates.

[ButterflyBlood]

25. to be honest, i don't care

it's not my responsibility to change a backwards state just because i happened to be born there, especially when my whole family is native Minnesotan, both my parents are native Minnesotan, and will probably be moving back there once they retire. Backwards areas will always exist, and I'll leave them to people who enjoy being there. There's no reason why I should have to work any harder to live in a progressive place I enjoy any more than a New Yorker or West Coaster has to.

Aside from that even if the state turned into a progressive bastion overnight, it's still far too rural and boring for me. I'm probably moving to the Twin Cities once I graduate, if not sooner, and that's the type of place I want to live, not somewhere where you have to drive more than an hour till the next town with a movie theater.

[alexwcovington]

27. Well then don't taunt the ones who stick around

If you're giving up, give up. But stop slandering the work of the people you leave behind. We haven't given up our hope, and we don't need your type ruining our work in the eyes of progressives nationwide.

[SmileyBoy]

31. I'm planning on living in Fargo once I get my degree. But...

...I wouldn't live in ANY OTHER part of the state. It's mainly a nostalgia factor for my coming back here also.

[LiberalFighter]

33. The other purpose of working in "lost" states...

is that the work will spread to states that are winnable.

This would not be as likely if it were 100 years ago. But with the internet age, cell phones and cable networks we can make a difference beyond our community.

Each person that we touch within our network expands the work to their network. Through work, friends, family and other daily interaction.

Before the nuclear family the families lived and died in their communities. Their reach outside their community might happen once in a blue moon. Life was slow.

So locations in states that are supporters may swing enough in a neighboring state to our side. Communities in North Dakota near the border of Minnesota could keep Minnesota with us. In the case of Arizona, California and New Mexico could act to change Arizona. Michigan and Pennsylvania could act to change Ohio in the next election.

[hatrack]

3. It's even simpler than that

Take the states Gore won in 2000, and add Missouri.

271 Democratic
268 Republican

[alexwcovington]

10. Sure, that works too

But I'd really like to see a campaign that'd swing across the entire nation and include everyone.

North Dakota is closer than a lot of people might think to swinging over.

[wuushew]

4. North Dakota is red and has only (3) votes LA (9 ) could cause tie

However if this pissed off people in regards to the electoral college resulting in less red representation the long term gains might be worth it.

[LiberalFighter]

34. We can win with any combination of states that went bush...

totaling in double digits.

Our best bets are:
AZ 51-45 -- Electoral Votes 10
AR 51-46 -- Electoral Votes 06
CO 51-42 -- Electoral Votes 09
FL 49-49 -- Electoral Votes 27
LA 53-45 -- Electoral Votes 09
NH 48-47 -- Electoral Votes 04
OH 50-46 -- Electoral Votes 20
TN 51-47 -- Electoral Votes 11
WV 52-46 -- Electoral Votes 05
MO 50-47 -- Electoral Votes 11

[onecitizen]

14. I think WV may go Dem........

this time. We know we made a mistake in 2000.

[alexwcovington]

15. Yeah I've heard about that one too

I think we can gain ground in a lot of states like that.

[wuushew]

18. Need 5 more if WV goes blue, NH would result in another tie

n/t

[jus_the_facts]

26. well eventhough Dems have been bein' elected here in Louisiana....

...as of late...I'd not be too surprised to see the electoral votes go to (*)...it'd be just about the ass backwards results I'd expect to see for some reason... x(