It's Ohio, stupid.

[hellhathnofury]

Bush Campaigns in Ohio, a Key State for Re-election Hopes
By DAVID STOUT

Published: January 21, 2004


WASHINGTON, Jan. 21 — President Bush campaigned today in Ohio, a state of huge importance to his re-election hopes this year, and followed up his State of the Union address Tuesday night with a message tailored to Midwestern hopes and fears.

snip

That is surely true of Ohio, which sometimes called itself "the Gateway to the Midwest" and has been a linchpin of Republican hopes. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying the state, according to The Almanac of American Politics.

Mr. Bush carried the state in 2000, gleaning 50 percent of the popular vote, to 46 percent for Vice President Al Gore, with Ralph Nader and other fringe candidates taking the rest. (Ohio had 21 electoral votes in 2000; it will have 20 this year.)

Mr. Bush has visited the state frequently since taking office, and it is a safe bet he will be back again.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/21/politics/21CND-BUSH.html?hp

I'm looking for the candidate who can pull Ohio. I don't give a rats ass about the South, after all if they can't win Vermont why should we have to win Alabama.

[hellhathnofury]

1. hicc

up

[goodhue]

2. Yes

As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.

[corporatewhore]

3. kucinich won ohio w/ many reagan dem support

[SahaleArm]

5. He won Cleveland not the state...

Ohio is relatively conservative overall.

[corporatewhore]

24. he was senator and is a congressman

[The Magistrate]

25. When Was Rep. Kucinich In The U.S. Senate, Sir?

That episode in his storied career has eluded me....

[ThirdWheelLegend]

27. state senator...maybe

hmmmmmmm


TWL

[liberalnurse]

4. Ohio has already conducted the Caucus delegation selection.

Dean has over 70%...... We are devoted to Dean.

[VolcanoJen]

7. Don't forget...

... the number of delegates each candidate receives is based upon the outcome of our Ohio primary, March 2.

It's a little too early to say that "we" are devoted to Dean.

[teevee99]

21. and also don't forget

that clark's meetups in cincy have grown to almost 100 attendees. And when I canvassed last weekend, I went to 45 houses. No one said "I'm for Dean." at all, but plenty asked me for buttons and stickers.

The mayor of columbus is heading the state effort.
should be an interesting primary.

see on march 2!

[VolcanoJen]

6. As a Buckeye, I couldn't agree more.

I remember how disappointed I felt when Gore wrote us off near the end of the campaign. He really could have pulled it off, but he just didn't have the guts to stay here and fight for every last vote.

Facts (and these are well-known, but recently offered again on John Edwards' excellent website):

- Ohio has supported the winner of the last TEN presidential elections.

- No winning candidate has lost Ohio since 1960 (Nixon won Ohio).

And, the most important fact:

TWENTY (count 'em! 20!) PHATTY ELECTORAL VOTES!!

We are a crippled state, as evidenced by Bush's visit here today. Ohio has been hard by the Bush recession, and people are more and more fed up, even down here in the conservative Cincinnati.

Our primary is just over a month away... these candidates need to get their butts out here!! :-)

[Baclava]

11. Forgive me for saying this....

GOOOooo Buckeyes... Michigan sucks...

That is all.

[Lefty48197]

16. Damn all you buckeyes to hell!

You anger me more than even the Dean supporters do!

[OhioStateProgressive]

18. OSU Student here

:)

[WhoCountsTheVotes]

8. Ohio is the Florida of 2004

I believe they just installed a fresh batch of no-ballot touch screen "voting" machines, didn't they?

I don't think we can win without Ohio.

[hellhathnofury]

10. Yes they did.

We've got to get Ohio,it's where *'s weakest and he knows it.

[Lefty48197]

17. WE CAN win without Ohio

THEY CAN'T win without Ohio.

[mike from ri]

9. good point

we shouldn't make a fetish about literally carrying the south. but when most Dem analysts talk about the "south" they are really using it as a metaphor for socially conservative white working class voters outside of the northeast. there are plenty of such voters in both the south and the Midwest.

so you are right that we don't need to take most southern states, but we have to be able to win over a segment of voters often found in the south if only to have appeal to like voters in the Midwest.

[hellhathnofury]

12. So instead of focusing on someone from the South,

let's focus on getting someone from the Midwest where he's much more vulnerable.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

13. Let us in the South take care of the South

I've just discovered that the Democratic Party in my area does absolutely NOTHING to support candidates! They don't even have poll watchers! A group of Dems, Independents, and even Republicans have grouped together in our area to support WHOEVER the Democrats nominate (we're ABB). We've decided as a group to bypass the local Dems, who have already declared they won't support any candidate that is pro-choice and pro-gun control. Although this is Arkansas, they are iffy about Clark, for heaven's sake!

At our next group strategy meeting, I propose that we actually TALK to people about the candidates, including the Democrat running for the House (the regular Dems didn't even know her name, though several in the group did!), and get out literature, make sure folks get to the polls, etc. etc. If people like us get up and do what we're doing, the South will become an even playing field for Dems once again.

[spooky3]

14. Midwesterners do not demand that you pick someone from there.

Otherwise, Gephardt would have won Iowa. Enough of the voters in Ohio liked Clinton to give the state to him twice.

Ohio is a microcosm of the rest of the country, with a nearly even split of Dems & Repugs. Cincinnati is conservative but not backwater. Columbus is conservative but is changing a bit. Lots of transplanted New Yorkers there, and a big university. Cleveland is not conservative. And all the other areas are like all the other areas in the rest of the country.

[Lefty48197]

15. We Democrats don't need one single electoral vote from the south

But the Republicans CAN'T win without Ohio. Considering the fact that 15% of Ohio's manufacturing jobs have disappeared in 3 short years, and all of the sudden, we Democrats are the odds on favorite to win the next Presidential election.

[QC]

19. Ohio has gone Republican in 6 of the past 10 presidential elections.

In the last six elections, it has gone Republican four times.

So while I agree that we definitely should go after Ohio, I don't think it's as easy as a lot of people here seem to think.

[hellhathnofury]

20. But more worthwhile than Georgia right?

[QC]

23. Certainly. But that doesn't make Ohio easy to win.

My point is that a lot of people here act like winning a fairly conservative state that votes Republican 2/3 of the time is a cakewalk. It's not. By all means go for Ohio, but don't bet everything on it.

[The Magistrate]

22. Any Candidate Who Can Carry Ohio, Sir

Will be competitive, at least, in the south.

During the war, Ohio elected a Copperhead governor, Vallandingham, who President Lincoln eventually put out of office and sent across the lines into the Confederacy....

"I will fight the secesh till Hell freezes over, then fight on the ice!"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Enjolras]

28. Furthermore, the GOP has every single statewide office

(*On Edit: corrected spelling)

But speaking as a buckeye, this gives a false impression of the ideological makeup of my state. The problems Democrats have here stem more from the lack of organization and enthusiasm of the Ohio Democratic party than from conservatism of Ohioans. Why else would have Bush have won it by only 4% in 2000, despite the fact that Gore gave up on us 2 weeks before the election?

Fact is, we really are a good microcosm of the country as a whole. Very moderate. Columbus really isn't that conservative, neither is Cleveland. Cincinnati is, but it's smaller than the other two. Our senators, Voinovich and DeWine, are Repuplican, but not of the bomb-throwing, bible-thumping, taliban wing of the GOP, thank goodness. Governor Taft is moderate enough to pass for a Democrat in the deep south. We are not Massachusetts, but neither are we Alabama. So a moderate Dem does have a good shot. I'm a Deaniac (Though I can go for Kerry too), but I have to admit that Clark or Edwards would likely be even stronger here. Gephardt would have been very tough indeed. Lots of union folk in Ohio, especially up here in the north.

Bush's visit yesterday was here in my city. I had better things to do. I was sipping a latte and doing some studying at about the time AF One touched down at our little, backwater airport, about 6 miles away. (And had my dentist scheduled me for a root canal yesterday, then I still would have had something better to do) When I left the cafe, I thought I detected the foul stench of a steaming fresh load of compulsory conservatism in the air. It is still there now.

[TokenDemocrat]

26. Interesting point - will put Ohio on my watch list