Voter Turnout and Our Win in 2004

[ThomWV]

I was just talking to my wife about how we can not loose the next election if we can just turn out the vote, and I have no doubts at all that the vote count in the next election will far surpass anything we've seen in the past on the Democratic side. I've said it before but let me say it again and get your comments.

First off the vote count, in round numbers, for the last election was 50.9M for the democrats and 50.4M for the Republicans. That was actually a rather high voter turnout for the Republicans and it was driven by the intense hatred of Clinton in the South and the Rocky Mountain west. The only time the Republicans ever had a greater number of voters turn out was Reagan's second shot at the big apple when, according the the numbers I recall, 53M of them showed up at the poles.

Folks my point here is that 50 million votes is all that you can expect the Republicans to be able to muster no matter what. By contrast, and I hate to say this, but Gore was not a strong candidate in 2000. The democratic electorate was not energized, as they say these days. If there is one thing you can absolutly bet on its that the hatred of Bush today amoung Democrats is at least as stong as the hatred for Clinton was among Republicans in 2000. So I think we are going to see a Democratic turnout the likes of which have never seen before, but that the Republicans are still going to hang in there at about 50 million, and probably less.

Turn on CSpan any morning you like and listen to disgruntled Republicans calling in. I am both amazed and delighted by how may denounce Bush's economic policy, or his domestic agenda in general, and tell us they may not vote for a Democrat but that simply CAN NOT vote for Bush again. Really, go listen for a couple of hours. If you haven't picked up on this yet it should be a pleasant suprise. I have no doubt at all that Rove has seen it and that you're going to see a strong appeal to Republicans to support their party in this time of need - with all sorts of religious overtones too, no doubt. You know the sort of stuff we'll be seeing; 'noone every got into heaven by voting for a baby-eating, mother-raping, peacenick, flag-burning, gay-loving, elitist over-educated Democrat'. Get ready for it. But at best 50 million is all they can do.

By contrast we know the Democrats can put an equal number of voters in the booths with even a somewhat weak (and I hate to say that about President Gore) candidate.

Then you go look at the turnout in Iowa, and you can bet I'll be looking real hard at the turnout in New Hampshire. If both are at record levels, as Iowa already was, then I am sure that the general election will follow suit.

So, you want my prediction for 2004? Try this one on for size:

Democrats 55 million
Republicans 48 Million

What's your prediction and how do you see various groups going?

Thom

[SoCalDem]

1. Diebold

:(

[Bandit]

2. I truly hope you are right and Bush* has coattails

If enough Republican just don't vote then we may just possibly win back Congress also. It may take that to turn our country back around into a loving caring nation once again instead of the Warmongering Imperialistic Horror it has become.

[gristy]

3. I agree with your analysis

And I have to say that even Diebold will not be able to overcome the landslide you project. :)

[mbee]

4. The voter turnout may be smaller with Kerry as the nominee. I

am energized by Al Gore or Howard Dean, but a Kerry run is a real turn-off to me and I feel just like not voting at all already!

[gristy]

5. Then you need to pay more attention to the chimp

Fan those embers of hatred! :)

[Arugula Latte]

6. I'm sorry, but...

How can you NOT vote? It's not a big burden. Just pull the lever or mark the box or do whatever you do in your precinct. Kerry is not necessarily my first choice, either, but he would be an unimaginably large improvement over the imposter we have now. Also, if nothing else, shouldn't the thought of a Bush Supreme Court nominee or two or three or four make you hold your nose and vote no matter what?

[UTUSN]

7. Your Analysis Is Thankfully Hopeful and Welcome

The Democratic voter has always had to be INSPIRED to turn out. It is well known that if all eligible voters actually voted, there would not be a Repuke in office anywhere. Unfortunately, a huge number of our potentials don't vote at all. That's why I would prefer MoveOn and SOROS to funnel the money into turn-out-the-vote projects instead of just great commercials. Also, African Americans have developed GREAT voter registration techniques that Hispanics could go to town with, if those bridges were built.